counterfactual analysis (Utah) · Go Syfert
← Utah issues

counterfactual analysis in Utah

17 Utah opinions name it 2 courts 2020–2026 16 in the last five years

The cases below were cited by Utah courts in a sentence that names this issue. Sides come from how each citing opinion treated the case (Syfertize flag on that citation), so a case can appear on both: that is where the law is contested. A red or yellow chip is the case's own overall treatment.

Followed or applied (9)

CaseFollowedCited
State v. Sotogreen
utahctapp · 2022 · cited in 7 Utah opinions naming this issue, 2024–2026
2 sentences

2026“To decide whether a trial affected by error is reasonably likely to have turned out differently we have to consider a hypothetical—an alternative universe in which the trial went off without the error.” Id.; see also State v. Soto, 2022 UT App 107, ¶ 25 , 518 P.3d 157 (“Under a counterfactual analysis, we consider whether, in the absence of the improperly admitted evidence, the likelihood of a different outcome is sufficiently high to undermine our confidence in the verdict.” (cleaned up)). ¶70 In this case, Gaines asserts that Counsel rendered ineffective assistance in four different ways: b

2026“To decide whether a trial affected by error is reasonably likely to have turned out differently we have to consider a hypothetical—an alternative universe in which the trial went off without the error.” Id.; see also State v. Soto, 2022 UT App 107, ¶ 25 , 518 P.3d 157 (“Under a counterfactual analysis, we consider whether, in the absence of the improperly admitted evidence, the likelihood of a different outcome is sufficiently high to undermine our confidence in the verdict.” (cleaned up)). ¶70 In this case, Gaines asserts that Counsel rendered ineffective assistance in four different ways: b

57
Strickland v. Washingtongreen
scotus · 1984 · cited in 3 Utah opinions naming this issue, 2020–2025
2 sentences

2025We must also “‘consider the totality of the evidence’ and ask if the alleged error ‘had a pervasive’ or ‘an isolated, trivial effect.’” State v. Howell, 2016 UT App 90, ¶ 5 , 374 P.3d 1032 (quoting Strickland, 466 U.S. at 695–96). ¶37 We initially consider what would have happened in a counterfactual world with respect to Jones’s charges of possession 20220912-CA 14 2025 UT App 56 State v. Jones of a firearm by a restricted person, possession of a controlled substance with intent to distribute, and possession of drug paraphernalia if the jury had learned that Deputy 4’s testimony about Deputy

2025See Strickland v. Washington, 466 U.S. 668, 695 (1984) (“The assessment 20230325-CA 9 2025 UT App 169 State v. Bell of prejudice should proceed on the assumption that the decisionmaker is reasonably, conscientiously, and impartially applying the standards that govern the decision.”).

23
State v. Cesspoochgreen
utahctapp · 2024 · cited in 2 Utah opinions naming this issue, 2025–2026
2 sentences

2026To decide whether a trial affected by error is reasonably likely to have turned out differently we have to consider a hypothetical—an alternative universe in which the trial went off without the error.” State v. Ellis, 2018 UT 2, ¶ 42 , 417 P.3d 86 ; see also State v. Cesspooch, 2024 UT App 15, ¶ 14 , 544 P.3d 1046 (stating that, in this context, we must “ask[] whether we remain confident that the verdict would be the same had the improper information been excluded” (quotation simplified)); State v. Soto, 2022 UT App 107, ¶ 25 , 518 P.3d 157 (“Under a counterfactual analysis, we consider wheth

2026To decide whether a trial affected by error is reasonably likely to have turned out differently we have to consider a hypothetical—an alternative universe in which the trial went off without the error.” State v. Ellis, 2018 UT 2, ¶ 42 , 417 P.3d 86 ; see also State v. Cesspooch, 2024 UT App 15, ¶ 14 , 544 P.3d 1046 (stating that, in this context, we must “ask[] whether we remain confident that the verdict would be the same had the improper information been excluded” (quotation simplified)); State v. Soto, 2022 UT App 107, ¶ 25 , 518 P.3d 157 (“Under a counterfactual analysis, we consider wheth

22
State v. Ellisgreen
utah · 2018 · cited in 8 Utah opinions naming this issue, 2021–2026
2 sentences

2026To decide whether a trial affected by error is reasonably likely to have turned out differently we have to consider a hypothetical—an alternative universe in which the trial went off without the error.” State v. Ellis, 2018 UT 2, ¶ 42 , 417 P.3d 86 ; see also State v. Cesspooch, 2024 UT App 15, ¶ 14 , 544 P.3d 1046 (stating that, in this context, we must “ask[] whether we remain confident that the verdict would be the same had the improper information been excluded” (quotation simplified)); State v. Soto, 2022 UT App 107, ¶ 25 , 518 P.3d 157 (“Under a counterfactual analysis, we consider wheth

2026To decide whether a trial affected by error is reasonably likely to have turned out differently we have to consider a hypothetical—an alternative universe in which the trial went off without the error.” State v. Ellis, 2018 UT 2, ¶ 42 , 417 P.3d 86 ; see also State v. Cesspooch, 2024 UT App 15, ¶ 14 , 544 P.3d 1046 (stating that, in this context, we must “ask[] whether we remain confident that the verdict would be the same had the improper information been excluded” (quotation simplified)); State v. Soto, 2022 UT App 107, ¶ 25 , 518 P.3d 157 (“Under a counterfactual analysis, we consider wheth

18
State v. Garcia-Floresgreen
utahctapp · 2021 · cited in 5 Utah opinions naming this issue, 2021–2025
2 sentences

2025“The counterfactual analysis requires us to consider a hypothetical—an alternative universe in which the trial went off without error.” Id. (cleaned up).

2025The counterfactual analysis requires us to consider a hypothetical—an alternative universe in which the trial went off without the error.” State v. Garcia-Flores, 2021 UT App 97, ¶ 27 , 497 P.3d 847 (quotation simplified). ¶24 Because the error at issue here is the omission of a motion for directed verdict based on the interpretation of a statute—a purely legal question—and we have determined that Bell’s interpretation of the statute is correct, in the counterfactual scenario in which Counsel moved for a directed verdict on the ground that the plain language of the controlling statute dictated

15
cluster 10860139green
· · cited in 1 Utah opinions naming this issue, 2026–2026
1 sentence

2026To decide whether a trial affected by error is reasonably likely to have turned out differently we have to consider a hypothetical—an alternative universe in which the trial went off without the error.” State v. Ellis, 2018 UT 2, ¶ 42 , 417 P.3d 86 ; see also State v. Soto, 2022 UT App 107, ¶ 25 , 518 P.3d 157 (“Under a counterfactual analysis, we consider whether, in the absence of the improperly admitted 20230748-CA 19 2026 UT App 78 State v. Cartwright evidence, the likelihood of a different outcome is sufficiently high to undermine our confidence in the verdict.” (cleaned up)). ¶51 The fif

11
State v. Bellgreen
utahctapp · 2025 · cited in 1 Utah opinions naming this issue, 2025–2025
1 sentence

2025See Strickland v. Washington, 466 U.S. 668, 695 (1984) (“The assessment 20230325-CA 9 2025 UT App 169 State v. Bell of prejudice should proceed on the assumption that the decisionmaker is reasonably, conscientiously, and impartially applying the standards that govern the decision.”).

11
State v. Gourdingreen
utahctapp · 2024 · cited in 1 Utah opinions naming this issue, 2024–2024
1 sentence

2024To decide whether a trial affected by error is reasonably likely to have turned out differently we have to consider a hypothetical—an alternative universe in which the trial went off without the error.” State v. Ellis, 2018 UT 2, ¶ 42 , 417 P.3d 86 ; see also State v. Soto, 2022 UT App 107, ¶ 25 , 518 P.3d 157 (“Under a counterfactual analysis, we consider whether, in the absence of improperly admitted [or misleading] evidence, the likelihood of a different outcome is sufficiently high to undermine our confidence in the verdict.” (quotation simplified)), cert. denied, 526 P.3d 827 (Utah 2022).

11
State v. Garciagreen
utah · 2017 · cited in 1 Utah opinions naming this issue, 2020–2020
2 sentences

2020Strickland v. Washington, 466 U.S. 668, 694 (1984); see also State v. Garcia, 2017 UT 53, ¶¶ 28, 42 , 424 P.3d 171 (stating that, in the context of counsel’s failure to object to erroneous jury instructions, the court must “ask if the defendant has met the burden of showing that the decision reached would reasonably likely have been different absent the errors” (quoting Strickland, 466 U.S. at 695–96)). ¶90 We have clarified that “[a] reasonable probability of a different outcome is in no way synonymous with . . . ‘any reasonable basis in the evidence.’” Garcia, 2017 UT 53, ¶ 44 (citation omit

2020Strickland v. Washington, 466 U.S. 668, 694 (1984); see also State v. Garcia, 2017 UT 53, ¶¶ 28, 42 , 424 P.3d 171 (stating that, in the context of counsel’s failure to object to erroneous jury instructions, the court must “ask if the defendant has met the burden of showing that the decision reached would reasonably likely have been different absent the errors” (quoting Strickland, 466 U.S. at 695–96)). ¶90 We have clarified that “[a] reasonable probability of a different outcome is in no way synonymous with . . . ‘any reasonable basis in the evidence.’” Garcia, 2017 UT 53, ¶ 44 (citation omit

11

Distinguished, questioned or overruled (0)

CaseNegativeCited
No negative-treatment citations attached to this issue in Utah. Read the followed side critically anyway.

Also cited on this issue (11)

CaseCitedYears
State v. Leech green
utahctapp · 2020
2 sentences

2023In other words, we must “consider whether, in the absence of the improperly admitted evidence, the likelihood of a different outcome is sufficiently high to undermine our confidence in the verdict.” State v. Leech, 2020 UT App 116, ¶ 67 , 473 P.3d 218 , cert. denied, 481 P.3d 1039 (Utah 2021). ¶52 Before we can conduct this counterfactual analysis, we must identify exactly what the jury would have heard if the evidence Aiken challenges on appeal had been excluded.

2023In other words, we must “consider whether, in the absence of the improperly admitted evidence, the likelihood of a different outcome is sufficiently high to undermine our confidence in the verdict.” State v. Leech, 2020 UT App 116, ¶ 67 , 473 P.3d 218 , cert. denied, 481 P.3d 1039 (Utah 2021). ¶52 Before we can conduct this counterfactual analysis, we must identify exactly what the jury would have heard if the evidence Aiken challenges on appeal had been excluded.

32021–2023
State v. Gaines neutral
utahctapp · 2026
1 sentence

2026Gaines asserts that claims (1) and (4) can be supported with evidence already in the record, but he 20240045-CA 28 2026 UT App 44 State v. Gaines acknowledges that evidence supporting claims (2) and (3) is not already in the record.

12026–2026
cluster 10863449 green
·
1 sentence

2026Beth and Clara offered testimony that was detailed, consistent, and 20240257-CA 42 2026 UT App 83 State v. Shay “mutually corroborative.” 10 Supra ¶ 34.

12026–2026
State v. Wall green
utahctapp · 2025
1 sentence

2025To decide whether a trial affected by error is reasonably likely to have turned out 20220835-CA 9 2025 UT App 30 State v. Wall differently we have to consider a hypothetical—an alternative universe in which the trial went off without the error.” State v. Ellis, 2018 UT 2, ¶ 42 , 417 P.3d 86 ; see also State v. Soto, 2022 UT App 107, ¶ 25 , 518 P.3d 157 (“Under a counterfactual analysis, we consider whether, in the absence of improperly admitted evidence, the likelihood of a different outcome is sufficiently high to undermine our confidence in the verdict.” (cleaned up)). ¶23 In this case, Wall

12025–2025
State v. Howell neutral
utahctapp · 2016
2 sentences

2025We must also “‘consider the totality of the evidence’ and ask if the alleged error ‘had a pervasive’ or ‘an isolated, trivial effect.’” State v. Howell, 2016 UT App 90, ¶ 5 , 374 P.3d 1032 (quoting Strickland, 466 U.S. at 695–96). ¶37 We initially consider what would have happened in a counterfactual world with respect to Jones’s charges of possession 20220912-CA 14 2025 UT App 56 State v. Jones of a firearm by a restricted person, possession of a controlled substance with intent to distribute, and possession of drug paraphernalia if the jury had learned that Deputy 4’s testimony about Deputy

2025We must also “‘consider the totality of the evidence’ and ask if the alleged error ‘had a pervasive’ or ‘an isolated, trivial effect.’” State v. Howell, 2016 UT App 90, ¶ 5 , 374 P.3d 1032 (quoting Strickland, 466 U.S. at 695–96). ¶37 We initially consider what would have happened in a counterfactual world with respect to Jones’s charges of possession 20220912-CA 14 2025 UT App 56 State v. Jones of a firearm by a restricted person, possession of a controlled substance with intent to distribute, and possession of drug paraphernalia if the jury had learned that Deputy 4’s testimony about Deputy

12025–2025
State v. Jones neutral
utahctapp · 2025
1 sentence

2025We must also “‘consider the totality of the evidence’ and ask if the alleged error ‘had a pervasive’ or ‘an isolated, trivial effect.’” State v. Howell, 2016 UT App 90, ¶ 5 , 374 P.3d 1032 (quoting Strickland, 466 U.S. at 695–96). ¶37 We initially consider what would have happened in a counterfactual world with respect to Jones’s charges of possession 20220912-CA 14 2025 UT App 56 State v. Jones of a firearm by a restricted person, possession of a controlled substance with intent to distribute, and possession of drug paraphernalia if the jury had learned that Deputy 4’s testimony about Deputy

12025–2025
State v. Thomas green
utahctapp · 2025
1 sentence

2025To decide whether a trial affected by error is reasonably likely to have turned out differently we have to consider a hypothetical—an alternative universe in which the trial went off without the error.” State v. Ellis, 2018 UT 2, ¶ 42 , 417 P.3d 86 ; see also Cesspooch, 2024 UT App 15, ¶ 14 (stating that, in this context, we must “ask[] whether we remain confident that the verdict would be the same had the improper information been excluded” (cleaned up)); State v. Soto, 2022 UT App 107, ¶ 25 , 518 P.3d 157 (“Under a counterfactual analysis, we consider whether, in the absence of the improperl

12025–2025
State v. Vine green
utahctapp · 2025
1 sentence

2025To decide whether a trial affected by error is reasonably likely to have turned out differently we have to consider a hypothetical—an alternative universe in which the 20221058-CA 26 2025 UT App 147 State v. Vine trial went off without the error.” State v. Ellis, 2018 UT 2, ¶ 42 , 417 P.3d 86 ; see also State v. Soto, 2022 UT App 107, ¶ 25 , 518 P.3d 157 (“Under a counterfactual analysis, we consider whether, in the absence of the improperly admitted evidence, the likelihood of a different outcome is sufficiently high to undermine our confidence in the verdict.” (cleaned up)). ¶74 We are simpl

12025–2025
State v. Rivera green
utahctapp · 2022
2 sentences

2024Under such a counterfactual analysis, the “proof of ineffective assistance of counsel cannot be a speculative matter but must be a demonstrable reality.” State v. Rivera, 2022 UT App 44, ¶ 43 , 509 P.3d 257 (cleaned up).

2024Under such a counterfactual analysis, the “proof of ineffective assistance of counsel cannot be a speculative matter but must be a demonstrable reality.” State v. Rivera, 2022 UT App 44, ¶ 43 , 509 P.3d 257 (cleaned up).

12024–2024
State v. Whitchurch green
utahctapp · 2024
1 sentence

2024Thus, “speculation is not a substitute for proof of prejudice, and proof of prejudice may not be based purely upon a speculative matter.” Id. (cleaned up). 20200938-CA 28 2024 UT App 108 State v. Whitchurch ¶64 The first relevant counterfactual scenario in this case is one in which Counsel reviewed the security camera video before trial.

12024–2024
State v. Welsh green
utahctapp · 2022
1 sentence

2022The counterfactual analysis in this case thus requires us to consider what Welsh’s trial would have looked like if Doctor had not testified that Victim told him that Welsh “got hold of me 20190833-CA 16 2022 UT App 112 State v. Welsh again” and “had kidnapped me.” We conclude that, even without those statements, there’s no reasonable likelihood that there would have been a result more favorable to Welsh. ¶53 First, the jury would have still heard Roommate’s firsthand account of what she saw when Welsh broke into the apartment.

12022–2022

Statutes the citing opinions construe

UT § Utah Code § 76-2-102 (3) UT § Utah Code § 76-2-103 (3)

Counted by distinct opinions that both name this issue and are annotated to the section; sections every opinion cites regardless of issue are not filtered here, so read the counts against the total above.

Where else courts name it

UT 17 (2020–2026) CA 7 (2017–2022) AZ 2 (2006–2016)

Opinions by the citing court's state. A doctrine retained in one state and abandoned in another shows up here as a year span that stalls.

← Caselaw search · G Cite Topics · Brief Check