¹ The pediatric neurologist The State’s case included three doctors who practice pediatric medicine; each actually treated the young boy in this case. Dr. Richard Roberts, a pediatric neurosurgeon for Cook Children’s Medical Center treated the child-victim upon his arrival to the hospital. RR4:180. Dr. Roberts performed an emergency craniotomy on the seven-month-old boy

² The pediatric opthalmologist The State’s second pediatric physician, Dr. Ann Rannelle who is a pediatric ophthalmologist, treated the victim after his craniotomy. RR5:5, 12–13. Dr. Rannelle found that the boy’s right eye had no hemorrhages, but in his left eye he had multiple intraretinal hemorrhages, a large subretinal hemorrhage, and some preretinal hemorrhage and vitreous hemorrhages, with a small line indicating retinoschisis, as well. RR5:38– 39.

³ The pediatric child abuse expert Dr. Jayme Coffman completed the State’s expert witness lineup. Dr. Coffman, a board-certified practitioner in both general pediatrics and child abuse pediatrics, is the medical director of the CARE team at Cook Children’s Medical Center. RR6:65–71. Her resume includes a biology degree with a minor in chemistry; during the early-mid 1980’s, she attended medical school at the University of Texas Health Science Center in San Antonio. RR6:66. Dr. Coffman developed a passion for pediatrics during her third-year clinical rotations in medical school. RR6:67. She treated children during

⁴ Differential diagnosis methodology Reliance on the differential diagnosis methodology reveals that the valid AHT science was properly applied. As previously detailed in Section I, supra at 17–21, Dr. Coffman bases a child abuse diagnosis on the individual mechanism of injury presented by a child while using a differential diagnosis methodology to apply her observations, training, and knowledge to the case. RR6:107–13. For instance, this child suffered no external injuries. Each of the State’s treating pediatric experts discussed this fact when explaining their observations, assessments, actions, and opinions; each expert fully considered the child’s unique medical history including this fact which was recognized in the affirmance and highlighted in Justice Walker’s dissent. See Wolfe, 459 S.W.3d at 211 (majority), 215 (dissent). RR4:222–24,

⁸ Pretrial, Appellant proposed that the trial court carry its gatekeeping ruling as the court heard the State’s experts. RR4:7-8; RR7:4-5. At the end of the evidence, the trial judge took the ruling under advisement to afford him time to read the provided materials. RR7:21. When the parties reconvened, the judge ruled that each of the State’s witnesses met the requirements of Rule 702 under Kelly and Daubert; the court specifically recognized each witness as being an expert. RR8:4-5. Appellant did not request any further finding.

⁹ Since some medical examiners appear to fall in the column of AHT doubters, note a pathology study that confirmed the predominance of non-accidental trauma as the cause of SDHs. The publication involved results from a fifty-year retrospective review of the causes of death for infants less than one year old. E.g., Jakob Matschke et al., Nonaccidental Head Injury is the Most Common Cause of Subdural Bleeding in Infants <1 Year of Age, 124 PEDIATRICS 1587-88, 1594 (2009). The survey concluded that most SDHs are attributable to trauma, with non-accidental head injuries substantially outnumbering accidental injuries. Id. at 1594.

¹¹ HOUJHLP 505 End of Document © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 87 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L....

¹² & n.70 (citing evidentiary hearing testimony of Patrick Barnes in State v. Edmunds, 746 N.W.2d 590 (Wis. Ct. App. 2008)); Gena, supra note 4, at 727. 203 See Kaye & Freedman, supra note 163, at 115. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 69 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 11 Hous. J. Health L.... 204 Id. 205 Id. 206 Id. at 116. While posterior probabilities, the applicability of the statistical models, and regression analysis are other important considerations, for the limited purposes of this article, we will focus on precision of data and statistical significance. For a more detailed discussion of the topic, I would guide the reader to Kaye & Freedman, supra note 163, at 116-78. Id. at 117. Id. at 115 n.107. The “mean” of data is the average of the data. Id. at 114 n.102. Id. at 118. Id. at 174. Id. See id. at 118, 174. Id. at 118. Id. at 118-19. Id. at 118. Id. at 119 (footnotes omitted). Id. at 168. See id. at 122. See id. at 168. See also id. at 124 n.142 (quoting Waisome v. Port Auth. N.Y. & N.J., 948 F.2d 1370, 1376 (2d Cir. 1991) (“Social scientists consider a finding of two standard deviations significant, meaning there is about one chance in 20 that the explanation for a deviation could be random....”); Rivera v. City of Wichita Falls, 665 F.2d 531, 545 n.22 (5th Cir. 1982) (“A variation of two standard deviations would indicate that the probability of the observed outcome occurring purely by chance would be approximately five out of 100; that is, it could be said with a 95% certainty that the outcome was not merely a fluke.”)). 220 Kay & Freedman, supra note 163, at 168. Computing the p-value requires statistical experience and is reserved for those with expertise in statistics and epidemiology. See id. at 87, 123. Incidentally, some statisticians point out that a determination of “statistical significance” is not as important as understanding how analysts developed their models. See id. at 128. For example: If enough comparisons are made, random error almost guarantees that some will yield “significant” findings, even when there is no real effect. Consider the problem of deciding whether a coin is biased. The probability that a fair coin will produce ten heads when tossed ten times is (1/2) 10 = 1/1,024. Observing ten heads in the first ten tosses, therefore, would be strong evidence that the coin is biased. Nevertheless, if a fair coin is tossed a few thousand times, it is likely that at least one string of ten consecutive heads will appear. Id. at 127; see also id. at 124, n.140; (citing John C. Bailar III & Frederick Mosteller, Guidelines for Statistical Reporting in Articles for Medical Journals: Amplifications and Explanations, in Medical Uses of Statistics, (2d ed. 1992) (“Merely labeling results as ‘significant’ or ‘not significant’ without providing the underlying information that goes into this conclusion is of limited value.”). 221 Kay & Freedman, supra note 163, at 122. 222 Id. at 172. 223 See id. 224 Id. at 173. A test with high specificity for a condition will have a low rate of false positives. See id. at 172-73 225 See id. at 173. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 70 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 11 Hous. J. Health L.... 226 Finkelstein & Levin, supra note 164, at 82. 227 See id. 228 Penny F. Whiting et al., Graphical Presentation of Diagnostic Information, BMC Med. Research Methodology, tbl.1 (Apr. 11 2008), http:// www.biomedcentral.com/content/pdf/1471-2288-8-20.pdf; see also, Finkelstein & Levin, supra note 164, at 83. 229 Stats: What is an Odds Ratio?, Children's Mercy, http:// www.childrens-mercy.org/stats/definitions/or.htm (last visited July 8, 2011). 230 Kaye & Freedman, supra note 163, at 167. 231 See id. 232 See Donohoe, supra note 12, at 241; see also Tuerkheimer, supra note 4; Gena, supra note 4 (authors who have just “reified” Donohoe's assertions). 233 This abbreviated bibliography is focused primarily on the literature in the past twelve years, as assertions have been made that there has been a “shifted consensus” in the medical community against the legitimacy of the Abusive Head Trauma diagnosis, which is predicated upon “new research.” See Tuerkheimer, supra note 4, at 15-29. 234 For a completely comprehensive review of the topic, I would reference the reader to a review of the treatises on the topic (listed herein below in notes 235 & 236) as a starting point, with a subsequent search of the Medline database using broad search terms such as “subdural hemorrhage” or “retinal hemorrhage,” with appropriately limiting criteria (i.e., including only children, excluding comments/editorials etc.). Assistance from a medical librarian may be required. 235 See Am. Acad. of Pediatrics, Inflicted Childhood Neurotrauma: Proceedings of a Conference Sponsored by Department of Health and Human Services, National Institute of Health, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, Office of Rare Disease, and National Center for Medical Rehabilitation Research (Robert M. Reece & Carol E. Nicholson eds., 2003); Frasier et al., supra note 13. 236 See Child Abuse and Neglect: Diagnosis, Treatment, and Evidence 35-38, 347-457 (Carole Jenny ed., 2010) (chapters 6, 39-48); Suzanne Starling, Head Injury in Child Maltreatment: A Clinical Guide and Photographic Reference 37 (Angelo P. Giardino & Randell Alexander eds., 2003); Kleinman & Barnes, supra note 141; Rorke-Adams et al., supra note 13. 237 In coming to this safe estimation, this author conducted an all language literature search of the Medline database from 1970 to March 2010, using over 15 different keywords/phrases (to include, but not limited to, “shaken baby syndrome,” “shaken infant syndrome,” “inflicted neurotrauma,” “nonaccidental trauma,” “subdural hemorrhage,” “subarachnoid hemorrhage,” and “retinal hemorrhage”). All meta-analyses, practice guidelines, randomized control trials, case reports, comparative studies, controlled clinical trials, historical or classical articles, multicenter studies and technical reports in children under eighteen years of age were included. All reviews, comments, editorials, letters, and news articles were excluded. The restricted searches to the search terms “subdural hemorrhages” and “retinal hemorrhages” by themselves produced over 1000 abstracts and over 500 abstracts, respectively. This author then reviewed over 1000 abstracts from the above searches to gauge applicability to the topic of Abusive Head Trauma, and safely determined that at least 700 articles were pertinent to the topic. Additionally, given the non-comprehensive nature of the search (i.e., the limitation to one database and a non-exhaustive list of keywords/phrases), this author was able to safely conclude that the above-stated number of studies was an underestimate. 238 The different nationalities publishing on this topic include: Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, India, Israel, Italy, Japan, Malaysia, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Russia, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland, United Kingdom, and the United States. 239 See infra Appendix A. 240 See Donohoe, supra note 12, at 240-41. 241 See Rorke-Adams et al., supra note 13, at 61. 242 Id. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 71 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 11 Hous. J. Health L.... 243 Id. at 64. 244 Id. at 65 tbl.2.2, 81-84. 245 Id. at 61, 63-64. 246 See, e.g., C. Hobbs et al., Subdural Haematoma and Effusion in Infancy: An Epidemiological Study, 90 Archives Disease Childhood 952, 954. 247 Id. at 952-53. 248 Id. at 953 tbl.2. “Underdetermined cause” combines Hobbs' “Perinatal” and “Undetermined” categories, and “Traumatic SDHs” combines Hobbs' “Accident” and “Abuse” categories. See id. 249 Id. 250 See S. Jayawant et al., Subdural Haemorrhages in Infants: Population Based Study, 317 Brit. Med. J. 1558, 1559, 1561 (1998); Victoria Trenchs et al., Subdural Haematomas and Physical Abuse in the First Two Years of Life, 43 Pediatric Neurosurgery 352, 352-53, 356 (2007); Dimitra Tzioumi & R. Kim Oates, Subdural Hematomas in Children Under 2 Years. Accidental or Inflicted? A 10-Year Experience, 22 Child Abuse & Neglect 1105, 1106-07 (1998). 251 Kenneth W. Feldman et al., The Cause of Infant and Toddler Subdural Hemorrhage: A Prospective Study, 108 Pediatrics 636, 638 (2001) (source also located in Appendix A, “General” literature, prospective article #14). 252 Id. at 637. 253 Id. at 637-38. 254 Id. at 638 tbl.2. 255 E.g., Jakob Matschke et al., Nonaccidental Head Injury is the Most Common Cause of Subdural Bleeding in Infants < 1 Year of Age, 124 Pediatrics 1587, 1594 (2009) (source also located in Appendix A, “Pathology” literature, retrospective article #20). 256 Id. at 1588. 257 Id. at 1589. 258 Id. 259 Id. 260 Id. at 1594. 261 As discussed in the statistics section above, the term “specific” in this context is used with regards to its statistical definition; meaning that it is a condition/injury that can produce some false positives with regards to AHT. See Kaye & Freedman, supra note 163, at 173 (definition of specificity). 262 E.g., A.C. Duhaime et al., Head Injury in Very Young Children: Mechanisms, Injury Types, and Ophthalmologic Findings in 100 Hospitalized Patients Younger than 2 Years of Age, 90 Pediatrics 179, 183 (1992) (source also located in Appendix A, “General” literature, prospective article #10). 263 Id. at 179, 181. 264 Id. at 179. 265 See id. at 179-80, 184. 266 Id. at 180. 267 See id. at 181 © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 72 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 11 Hous. J. Health L.... 268 Id. at 183. 269 See id. at 184. Recall the general statistical principles section above: p-value is essentially the likelihood the result is due to chance. 270 Id. at 181, 184. 271 See Kirsten Bechtel, et al., Characteristics that Distinguish Accidental from Abusive Injury in Hospitalized Young Children with Head Trauma, 114 Pediatrics 165, 165, 168 (2004) (source also located in Appendix A, “General” literature, prospective article #5). Id. at 166. Id. at 166 tbl.1. See id. Id. at 166. Id. at 167, tbl.3. Id. See id. See id. See Matthieu Vinchon et al., Confessed Abuse Versus Witnessed Accidents in Infants: Comparison of Clinical, Radiological, and Ophthalmological Data in Corroborated Cases, 26 Child's Nervous Sys. 637, 638-39 (2010) (source also located in Appendix A, “General” literature, prospective article #23). 281 Id. Confessions were obtained from judicial sources. Id. at 638. 282 Id. at 641 tbl.2. 283 Id. 284 See id. at 639, 641 tbl.2. 285 See Linda Ewing-Cobbs, et al., Neuroimaging, Physical, and Developmental Findings after Inflicted and Noninflicted Traumatic Brain Injury in Young Children, 102 Pediatrics 300, 300 (1998); Carla DiScala, et al., Child Abuse and Unintentional Injuries, 154 Archives Pediatrics & Adolescent Med. 16, 16 (2000); Kent P. Hymel et al., Head Injury Depth as an Indicator of Causes and Mechanisms, 125 Pediatrics 712, 715-18 (2010) [hereinafter Hymel et al., Head Injury Depth]; Kent P. Hymel et al., Mechanisms, Clinical Presentations, Injuries, and Outcomes from Inflicted Versus Noninflicted Head Trauma during Infancy: Results of a Prospective, Multicentered, Comparative Study, 119 Pediatrics 922, 922 (2007) [hereinafter Hymel et al., Mechanisms]; Heather T. Keenan et al., A Population-Based Comparison of Clinical Outcome Characteristics of Young Children with Serious Inflicted and Noninflicted Traumatic Brain Injury, 114 Pediatrics 633, 633 (2004); Mark W. Morris et al., Evaluation of Infants with Subdural Hematoma who Lack External Evidence of Abuse, 105 Pediatrics 549, 549 (2000); M.C. Myhre et al., Traumatic Head Injury in Infants and Toddlers, 96 Acta Paediatrica 1159, 1159 (2007); Robert M. Reece & Robert Sege, Childhood Head Injuries, 154 Archives Pediatrics & Adolescent Med. 11, 11 (2000); Shervin R. Dashti et al., Current Patterns of Inflicted Head Injury in Children, 31 Pediatric Neurosurgery 302, 302 (1999); Matthieu Vinchon et al., Accidental and Nonaccidental Head Injuries in Infants: A Prospective Study, 102 J. Neurosurgery: Pediatrics 380, 380-81 (2005) (sources also referenced in Appendix A, “General” literature, prospective articles #12, 18, 19 & 21; retrospective articles # 12, 27, 28, & 32; “Neurosurgery” literature, prospective article #3 and retrospective article #5). 286 Robert G. Wells et al., Intracranial Hemorrhage in Children Younger than 3 Years, 156 Archives Pediatrics & Adolescent Med. 252, 253, 254 tbl.2 (2002) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Radiology” literature, retrospective article #14). 287 Id. at 253. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 73 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 11 Hous. J. Health L.... 288 Id. 289 Id. 290 Id. 291 Id. at 254 tbls.1 & 2. 292 Id. at 255. 293 See id. at 255 & tbl.3. 294 See S. Datta et al., Neuroradiological Aspects of Subdural Haemorrhages, Archives Disease Childhood 947, 948, 950 (2005); Hymel et al., Mechanisms, supra note 285, at 928. But see Glenn A. Tung et al., Comparison of Accidental and Nonaccidental Traumatic Head Injury in Children on Noncontrast Computed Tomography, 118 Pediatrics 626, 632 (2006) (showing authors did not find a significant statistical association with interhemispheric SDHs and non-accidental trauma) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Radiology” literature, comparative article #8). 295 Datta et al., supra note 294, at 947-48. 296 Alex V. Levin, Retinal Hemorrhages: Advances in Understanding, 56 Pediatric Clinics N. Am. 333, 335 (2009) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Ophthalmology” literature, review article #5). Id. Id. Id. Id. See id. at 338. Id. at 335. Id. at 333, 341. Id. at 335. Id. Id. Id. Id. at 335-36; see Gregg T. Lueder et al., Perimacular Retinal Folds Simulating Nonaccidental Injury in an Infant, 124 Archives Ophthalmology 1782, 1782-83 (2006) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Ophthalmology” literature, retrospective article #22); P.E. Lantz et al., Perimacular Retinal Folds from Childhood Head Trauma, 328 Brit Med. J. 754, 754 (2004) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Pathology” literature, retrospective article #16); Ajay Bhatnagar et al., Subinternal Limiting Membrane Hemorrhage with Perimacular Fold in Leukemia, 127 Archives Ophthalmology 1548, 1548 (2009) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Ophthalmology” literature, retrospective article #4); JD Kivlin et al., Retinal Hemorrhages in Children Following Fatal Motor Vehicle Crashes: A Case Series, 126 Archives Ophthalmology 800, 800-01 (2008) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Ophthalmology” literature, retrospective article #18). 309 See, Levin, supra note 296, at 334 box1. 310 Id. at 333, 335. 311 See Levin, supra note 296, at 337. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 74 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 11 Hous. J. Health L.... 312 See M. Vaughn Emerson et al., Incidence and Rate of Disappearance of Retinal Hemorrhage in Newborns, 108 Ophthalmology 36, 36 (2001); Lindsey A. Hughes et al., Incidence, Distribution, and Duration of Birth-Related Retinal Hemorrhages: A Prospective Study, 10 J. Am. Ass'n for Pediatric Ophthalmology & Strabismus 102, 102 (2006) (sources also referenced in Appendix A, “Ophthalmology” literature, prospective articles #6 & #13). 313 See Emerson et al., supra note 312, at 36. 314 Id. at 37. 315 Id. at 38. There are rare cases of birth-related RHs lasting until six to eight weeks of life. See id. There has been no documentation of birth related RHs outside of eight weeks (two months) of life. See id.; Hughes et al., supra note 312, at 106. 316 Id. at 39. 317 See Levin, supra note 296, at 334 box1. 318 Id. at 337. 319 Id. 320 See James C. Fackler et al., Retinal Hemorrhages in Newborn Piglets Following Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation, 146 Am. J. Diseases Children 1294, 1295 (1992); M.G.F. Gilliland & Martha Waters Luckenbach, Are Retinal Hemorrhages Found After Resuscitation Attempts? A Study of the Eyes of 169 Children, 14 Am. J. Forensic Med. & Pathology 187, 189 (1993); Amy Odom et al., Prevalence of Retinal Hemorrhages in Pediatric Patients After In-hospital Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation: A Prospective Study, 99 Pediatrics, at *4 (June 2007) (sources also referenced in Appendix A, “Ophthalmology” literature, controlled study #2 & prospective articles #7 & #16). 321 See Odom et al., supra note 320, at *2. 322 Id. 323 Id. at *4. 324 Id. at *1. 325 Id. at *1, *4. 326 See id. at *3-*4. 327 See A.I. Curcoy et al., Do Retinal Haemorrhages Occur in Infants with Convulsions?, 94 Archives Disease Childhood 873, 874 (2009) (seizures); Michael Goldman et al., Severe Cough and Retinal Hemorrhage in Infants and Young Children, 148 J. Pediatrics 835, 836 (2006) (coughing); Sandra Herr et al., Does Valsalva Retinopathy Occur in Infants? An Initial Investigation in Infants with Vomiting Caused by Pyloric Stenosis, 113 Pediatrics 1658, 1660 (2004) (vomiting); M. Mei-Zahav et al., Convulsions and Retinal Haemorrhage: Should We Look Further? 86 Archives Disease Childhood 334, 334-35 (2002) (convulsions); S. Sandramouli et al., Retinal Hemorrhages and Convulsions, 76 Archives Disease Childhood 449, 449-50 (1997) (seizures) Ajai K. Tyagi et al., Can Convulsions Alone Cause Retinal Haemorrhages in Infants? 82 Brit. J. Ophthalmology 659, 659-60 (1998) (seizures); (sources also referenced in Appendix A, “Ophthalmology” literature, prospective articles #5, 11, 12, 15, 19, & 23). One other mechanism of retinal hemorrhaging occasionally mentioned is Purtscher's Syndrome. Levin, supra note 296, at 337. Purtscher's syndrome is the presence of certain characteristically-patterned RHs (hexagonal with white patches) that occur in adults that suffer severe crush chest injury. Id. The particular characteristically-patterned RHs (Purtscher's retinopathy) are rarely seen in AHT and are most likely the result of infarction, fat emboli from broken bones, or inflammation-mediated change. Id. 328 See Susan Schloff et al., Retinal Findings in Children with Intracranial Hemorrhage, 109 Ophthalmology 1472, 1472 (2002) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Ophthalmology” literature, prospective article #20). 329 Id. at 1473. 330 Id. at 1473 tbl.1. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 75 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 11 Hous. J. Health L.... 331 Id. at 1473. 332 Id. at 1472. 333 Id. 334 Id. at 1473-74. 335 See Yair Morad et al., Correlation Between Retinal Abnormalities and Intracranial Abnormalities in the Shaken Baby Syndrome, 134 Am. J. Ophthalmology 354, 355-56 (2002); (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Ophthalmology” literature, retrospective article #30). 336 See Levin, supra note 296, at 338. 337 See Yvonne M. Buys et al., Retinal Findings After Head Trauma in Infants and Young Children, 99 Ophthalmology 1718, 1720 (1992); Cindy W. Christian et al., Retinal Hemorrhages Caused by Accidental Household Trauma, 135 J. Pediatrics 125, 127 (1999); Dennis L. Johnson et al., Accidental Head Trauma and Retinal Hemorrhage, 33 Neurosurgery 231, 231-32 (1993); V. Trenchs et al., Retinal Haemorrhages in Head Trauma Resulting from Falls: Differential Diagnosis with Non-Accidental Trauma in Patients Younger than 2 Years of Age, 24 Child's Nervous Sys. 815, 817 (2008); V. Sturm et al., Rare Retinal Haemorrhages in Translational Accidental Head Trauma in Children, 23 Eye 1535, 1540 (2009); Kivlin et al., supra note 308, at 803 (sources also referenced in Appendix A, “Ophthalmology” literature, prospective articles #3, 14, & 22; retrospective articles #8, 18, & 36). In the rare instances when RHs were present, there were only a few preretinal or intraretinal RHs confined to the posterior pole. See, e.g., Cindy W. Christian et al., Retinal Hemorrhages Caused by Accidental Household Trauma, 135 J. Pediatrics 125, 125-27 (1999). See Levin, supra note 296, at 338. Id. Id. Id. See id. at 341. See Vinchon et al., supra note 285, at 380. Id. 380-81. Id. at 381. Id. Id. at 382. Id. See Vinchon et al., supra note 280, at 637-38, 644. See id. at 637-38. Id. at 641 tbl.2. Id. Id. Id. at 640 tbl.1. Id. at 642 tbl.4. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 76 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 11 Hous. J. Health L.... 356 Id. at 642 tbl.4, 643. 357 Id. at 644. 358 See Vincent Pierre-Kahn et al., Ophthalmologic Findings in Suspected Child Abuse Victims with Subdural Hematomas, 110 Ophthalmology 1718, 1720 (2003) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Ophthalmology” literature, prospective article #17); Bechtel et al., supra note 271, 166-67; Reece & Sege, supra note 285, at 13-14. 359 See Gaurav Bhardwaj et al., A Systematic Review of the Diagnostic Accuracy of Ocular Signs in Pediatric Abusive Head Trauma, 117 Ophthalmology 983, 987 tbl.1 (2010) (presenting results of Riffenburgh study) (Bhardwaj source also referenced in Appendix A, “Ophthalmology” literature, systematic review #2; Riffenburgh source also referenced in Appendix A, “Pathology” literature, controlled study #7). 360 Id. 361 Id. 362 See id.; infra Part II.B.1.b. 363 See, e.g., Aaron M. Gleckman et al., Optic Nerve Damage in Shaken Baby Syndrome, 124 Archives Pathology & Laboratory Med. 251, 252 tbl., 255 (2000) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Pathology” literature, controlled study #4); Donald L. Budenz et al., Ocular and Optic Nerve Hemorrhages in Abused Infants with Intracranial Injuries, 101 Ophthalmology 559, 561 (1994) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Pathology” literature, controlled study #2); Gilliland & Luckenbach, supra note 320, at 191. 364 See S. Maguire, Which Clinical Features Distinguish Inflicted from Non-Inflicted Brain Injury? A Systematic Review, 94 Archives Disease Childhood 860, 860 (2009) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “General” literature, systematic review article #4). Id. at 861, 864 fig.1. Id. at 863-64. Id. at 861. Id. Id. at 865. Id.; see Maguire et al., supra note 364, at 865. Bhardwaj et al., supra not 359, at 984. Id. Id. Bhardwaj, supra note 359, at 991. “Level I evidence provides strong support for a statement, and is usually composed of well-performed, randomized controlled-trials or meta-analyses of randomized controlled-trials. Level II evidence provides substantial support for the statement... [and] usually includes observational studies, such as cohort studies and case control studies. Level III indicates a weak body of evidence relying on consensus statements, small noncomparative case series, and individual case reports.” Id. at 984; see also Alex V. Levin et al., Clinical Report: The Eye Examination in the Evaluation of Child Abuse, 126 Pediatrics 376, 376-77 (2010) (discussing use of intraocular hemorrhage diagnoses in assessing AHT) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Ophthalmology” literature, systematic review #4). 375 See Bhardwaj, supra note 359, at 990-91. 376 See J. Haviland & R.I. Ross Russell, Outcome After Severe Non-Accidental Head Injury, 77 Archives Disease Childhood 504, 504-05 (1997) (source also found in Appendix A, “General” literature, comparative study #16). 377 Id. at 505. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 77 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 11 Hous. J. Health L.... 378 Id. 379 Id. At discharge nine AHT survivors were deemed severe, three fell in the moderate category, and one patient was normal. Id. at 506 tbl.3. 380 Id. at 505. 381 Id. at 505, 506 tbl.4. The article presents conflicting data. The body of the article only accounts for eight of the nine survivors, stating six of the survivors were deemed normal at discharge. Id. at 505. Because the percentages stated on page 505 do not add up 100%, I relied on Table 4 data, which showed seven survivors had a normal status at discharge. See id. at 505, 506 tbl.4. 382 See id. 383 See Heather T. Keenan et al., Neurodevelopmental Consequences of Early Traumatic Brain Injury in 3-Year-Old Children, 119 Pediatrics e616, e619-e620 (2007) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “General” literature, controlled study #5); Matthieu Vinchon et al., Infantile Traumatic Subdural Hematomas: Outcome after Five Years, 39 Pediatric Neurosurgery 122, 124-25 (2003) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Neurosurgery” literature, prospective study #4); Linda Ewing-Cobbs et al., Late Intellectual and Academic Outcomes Following Traumatic Brain Injury Sustained During Early Childhood, 105 J. Neurosurgery: Pediatrics 287 (2006), http:// www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2615233/pdf/nihms23194.pdf (source also referenced in Appendix A, “General” literature, comparative studies #11); Hymel et al., Mechanisms, supra note 285, at 924-25, 927 tbl.4; Vinchon et al., supra note 280, at 641 tbl.3; Ewing-Cobbs et al., supra note 285, at 303-04. 384 Joeli Hettler & David S. Greenes, Can the Initial History Predict Whether a Child with a Head Injury has been Abused?, 111 Pediatrics 602, 602 (2003) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “General” literature, retrospective article #17). 385 Id. 386 Id. 387 Id. at 603. 388 Id. at 602, 605 tbl.4. 389 Id. at 604. 390 Duhaime et al., supra note 262, at 184; see Heather T. Keenan et al., Child Outcomes and Family Characteristics 1 Year After Severe Inflicted or Noninflicted Traumatic Brain Injury,117 Pediatrics 317, 317 (2006); see also Keenan et al., supra note 285, at 637. 391 See Tuerkheimer, supra note 4, at 13 & n.76 (citing the testimony of a defense expert, neuroradiologist Dr. Patrick Barnes, in State v. Edmunds). The assertion is that writers of much of the medical literature on Abusive Head Trauma “select[ed] cases by the presence of the very clinical findings and test results they [sought] to validate as diagnostic.” Id. at 13 As Dr. Barnes simply stated, “SBS=SDH + RH [inclusion criteria], therefore, SDH + RH=SBS [conclusion].” Id. 392 See supra Section II.A. (explaining the direct contributions of these and other authors). 393 Id. 394 Id. (detailing studies that accounted for “circularity”). 395 There have been a few other hypothesized mechanisms (such as increased intrathoracic pressure) for SDHs. But addressing all of these hypothesized mechanisms is beyond the scope of this article. For further information regarding these hypothesized mechanisms, I would refer the reader to Frasier et al, supra note 14, and Rorke-Adams et al., supra note 14. 396 J.F. Geddes et al., Dural Haemorrhage in Non-Traumatic Infant Deaths: Does it Explain the Bleeding in “Shaken Baby Syndrome”?, 29 Neuropathology & Applied Neurobiology 14, 14 (2003) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Pathology” literature, retrospective article #9); Waney Squier & Julie Mack, The Neuropathology of Infant Subdural Haemorrhage, 187 Forensic Sci. Int'l 6, 12 (2009); Julie Mack et al., Anatomy and Development of the Meninges: Implications for Subdural Collections and CSF Circulation, 39 Pediatric Radiology 200, 200 (2009) (sources also referenced in Appendix A, “Pathology” literature, review articles #6 & 9). © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 78 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 11 Hous. J. Health L.... Geddes et al, supra note 396, at 14 (emphasis added). See id. at 19. Id. at 15. Id. See id. at 15, 17 tbl.2. Id. at 15. See generally id. See id. at 15, 19. See id. at 17. Id. See id. See id. See supra Section II.B.2.a. See Marta C. Cohen & Irene Scheimberg, Evidence of Occurrence of Intradural and Subdural Hemorrhage in the Perinatal and Neonatal Period in the Context of Hypoxic Ischemic Encephalopathy: An Observational Study from Two Referral Institutions in the United Kingdom, 12 Pediatric & Developmental Pathology 169 (2009); (source also referenced at Appendix A, “Pathology” literature, prospective article #1); see also infra Part III.A (discussing the legal ramifications of the “Unified Hypothesis” in United Kingdom courts). 411 Cohen & Scheimberg, supra note 410, at 169. 412 Id. 413 See generally id. 414 See C. Smith, & J. Bell, Shaken Baby Syndrome: Evidence and Experts, 50 Dev. Med. Child Neurology 6, 6 (2008). 415 See generally Cohen & Scheimberg, supra note 410. 416 See generally id. 417 Compare Geddes et al., supra note 396, at 14 (using fetuses with gestational ages of 18 to 41 weeks and newborn with ages as high as five months) with Cohen & Scheimberg, supra note 410, at 169 (using fetuses with gestational ages of 26 to 40 weeks and newborns with ages between 1 hour and 19 days). 418 Geddes et al., supra note 396, at 14. 419 Tim Jaspan, Current Controversies in the Interpretation of Non-Accidental Head Injury, 38 Pediatric Radiology s378, s382 (Supp. 2008) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Radiology” literature, review #3). 420 See generally Benjamin Y. Huang & Mauricio Castillo, Hypoxic-Ischemic Brain Injury: Imaging Findings from Birth to Adulthood, 28 Radiographics 417, 433 (2008). 421 See Jaspan, supra note 419, at s382. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 79 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 11 Hous. J. Health L.... 422 See David J. Dubowitz et al., MR of Hypoxic Encephalopathy in Children after Near Drowning: Correlation with Quantitative Proton MR Spectroscopy and Clinical Outcome, 19 Am J. Neuroradiology 1617, 1618 (1998) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Radiology” literature, retrospective article #7). 423 Id. at 1620-22, 1626. 424 See O. Baenziger et. al., Early Pattern Recognition in Severe Perinatal Asphyxia: A Prospective MRI Study, 35 Neuroradiology 437, 440 (1993); A. James Barkovich et. al., Perinatal Asphyxia: MR Findings in the First 10 Days, 16 Am. J. Neuroradiology 427, 427 (1995); Mary Rutherford et al., Hypoxic-ischaemic Encephalopathy: Early and Late Magnetic Resonance Imaging Findings in Relation to Outcome, 75 Archives Disease Childhood F145, F145, F151 (1996); L.T. Sie et al., MR Patterns of Hypoxic-Ischemic Brain Damage After Prenatal, Perinatal or Postnatal Asphyxia, 31 Neuropediatrics 128, 128 (2000). 425 See Karim T. Rafaat et al., Cranial Computed Tomographic Findings in a Large Group of Children with Drowning: Diagnostic, Prognostic, and Forensic Implications, 6 Pediatric Critical Care Med. 567, 567 (2008) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Radiology” literature, retrospective article #11). 426 Id. 427 Id. at 567-68. 428 Jaspan, supra note 419, at s382. 429 Roger W. Byard et al., Lack of Evidence for a Causal Relationship Between Hypoxic-Ischemic Encephalopathy and Subdural Hemorrhage in Fetal Life, Infancy, and Early Childhood, 10 Pediatric & Developmental Pathology 348, 348 (2007) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Pathology,” literature, retrospective article # 2). 430 Id. 431 Id. 432 Id. 433 Id. 434 Id. 435 See M. Hurley, et al., Is There a Causal Relationship Between the Hypoxia-Ischaemia Associated with Cardiorespiratory Arrest and Subdural Haematomas? An Observational Study, 83 Brit. J. Radiology 736, 736-37 (2010) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “Pathology” literature, retrospective article #15). Id. at 736. Id. Id. at 736-37. Id. at 737. Id. Id. at 738. Id. Id. See id. at 737. Id. at 743 (emphasis added). © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 80 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 11 Hous. J. Health L.... 446 Matschke et al., supra note 255, at 1594. 447 See Squier & Mack, supra note 396, at 8. 448 Id. at 8-9. 449 Id. at 10. 450 See id. at 10, 12. 451 Much has recently been made of the biomechanical research arguing against the validity of AHT/SBS. See Bazelon, supra note 5. Given the ethical limitations of research in the field, much prior pediatric biomechanical research was scaled data based upon adult values. See Jason F. Luck et al., Tensile Mechanical Properties of the Perinatal and Pediatric PMHS Osteoligamentous Cervical Spine, 52 Stapp Car Crash J. 107, 107-09 (2008). This left what was described by many learned researchers in the field as a “significant void in pediatric cervical spine biomechanics.” Id. at 107. Although recent biomechanical research upon post-mortem infants is an improvement on that prior data, it is still limited and approximate. See id. at 109. In fact, Luck et al. found that “juvenile animal surrogates estimate the stiffness of the human cervical spine fairly well.” Id. at 107. Along that vein of approximate data, recent animal studies (specifically, seven to ten day-old anesthetized lambs vigorously shaken by humans) have produced the exact same injuries commonly found in AHT/SBS--subdural hemorrhages and retinal hemorrhages. See John W. Finnie et al., Diffuse Neuronal Perikaryal Amyloid Precursor Protein Immunoreactivity in an Ovine Model of Non-Accidental Head Injury (the Shaken Baby Syndrome), 17 J. Clinical Neuroscience 237, 237-39 (2010). 452 See, e.g., Brian J. Forbes et. al., Inflicted Childhood Neurotrauma (Shaken Baby Syndrome): Ophthalmic Findings, 41 J. Pediatric Ophthalmology & Strabismus 80, 86 (2004). 453 See Chiesa & Duhaime, supra note 13, at 317. 454 “Diffuse Axonal Injury” refers to damage of the brain to a widespread, not focal, area; it most commonly manifests as lesions of the white matter tracts of the brain. See Douglas H. Smith et al., Diffuse Axonal Injury in Head Trauma, 18 J. Head Trauma Rehabilitation 307, 308 (2003). 455 See Tuerkheimer, supra note 4, at 4 & n.18, 7 n.39. 456 Although not discussed in this review, “encephalopathy” is also associated with trauma. 457 See Kempe et al., supra note 148, at 143. 458 See Chiesa & Duhaime, supra note 13, at 321. 459 Id. at 319-20. 460 Id at 319. 461 Id. at 320. In certain cases, specifically, in certain cases of fatal AHT, a detailed physical examination either is impractical (secondary to the critical care needs of the child) or unwarranted, as further physical examination information will be obtained via autopsy. See id. at 323. 462 Id. at 320. 463 See Carole Jenny et al., Analysis of Missed Cases of Abusive Head Trauma, 282 JAMA 621, 623 & tbl.2 (1999) (showing physicians failed to detect AHT 31.2% of the time) (source also referenced in Appendix A, “General” literature, retrospective study #19); see also Hymel et al., Head Injury Depth, supra note 285, at 712, 716 tbl.3 (showing abused children might not show scalp or skull injury, but still may have brain injury). 464 See Chiesa & Duhaime, supra note 13, at 321 (discussing differential diagnoses) 465 See id. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 81 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 11 Hous. J. Health L.... 466 See infra notes 523-24. 467 See Chiesa & Duhaime, supra note 13, at 320. In fact, a multidisciplinary child protection team approach has become the standard of care in many jurisdictions. See id. at 319. See id. at 321. See id. at 322. See id. at 319-20. Id. at 321. See id. at 321, 323 See id. at 322. This presumes that after reasonable medical investigation there is still no other discernible medical cause for the injuries. See Kempe et al., supra note 148, at 143. Tuerkheimer, supra note 4, at 5 (citing State v. Edmunds 746 N.W.2d 590, 598-99 (Wis. Ct. App. 2008)). See Tuerkheimer, supra note 4, at 14 (emphasis added). Some of the below listed organizations have explicitly acknowledged support through practice guidelines or similar promulgations, while others have implicitly done so by providing clinician or patient education materials on their websites. 479 See Jonathan Dart & Sarah Cumberland, Fragile Brain, Handle with Care, 87 Bull. World Health Org. 331, 331-32 (2009); Fact Sheet No. 150, Child Maltreatment, World Health Org. (Aug. 2010), http:// www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs150/en/index.html. 480 The Royal Coll. of Paediatrics & Child Health & Royal Coll. of Radiologists, Standards for Radiological Investigations of Suspected Non-Accidental Injury 10 (March 2008), http:// www.rcpch.ac.uk/sites/default/files/asset_ library/Publications/S/ StandardsforRadiologicalInvestigationsD.. 481 See id. 482 See G. Adams et al., Update from the Ophthalmology Child Abuse Working Party: Royal College Ophthalmologists, 18 Eye 795, 795-96 (2004) available at www.rcophth.ac.uk/page.asp?section=493&search=. 483 See Joint Statement on Shaken Baby Syndrome, Canadian Paediatric Soc'y, http://www.cps.ca/english/statements/pp/cps01-01.htm (last visited Oct. 23, 2011). 484 Christian et al., supra note 6, at 1410. 485 Alex V. Levin et al., Information Statement: Abusive Head Trauma/Shaken Baby Syndrome, Am. Acad. of Ophthalmology (June 2010), http:// one.aao.org/ce/practiceguidelines/clinicalstatements_content.aspx?cid=914163d5-5313-4c23-80f1-07167ee62579. 486 Info for Patients: Shaken Baby Syndrome, Am. Ass'n for Pediatric Ophthalmology & Strabismus, http://www.aapos.org/terms/ conditions/97 (last visited Oct. 23, 2011). 487 See James S. Meyer, et al., ACR Appropriateness Criteria: Suspected Physical Abuse--Child, Am. Coll. Radiology http:// www.acr.org/SecondaryMainMenuCategories/quality_safety/app_ criteria/pdf/ExpertPanelonPediatricImaging/ SuspectedPhysicalAbuseChildDoc9.aspx (last reviewed 2009). 488 See Liz Horsley, AAP Guidelines on Evaluating Suspected Child Physical Abuse, 77 Am. Fam. Physicians 1461, 1461-64 (2008), available at http://www.aafp.org/afp/2008/0515/p1461.html. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 82 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 11 Hous. J. Health L.... 489 See Patient Education, Am. Coll. of Surgeons, http:// www.facs.org/patienteducation/patient-resources/nervoussystem.html (last visited Aug. 26, 2011). 490 Patient Information: Shaken Baby Syndrome, Am. Ass'n of Neurological Surgeons (Nov. 2005) http://www.aans.org/Patient% 20Information.aspx (follow “Click here to view Conditions and Treatments” hyperlink; then follow “Shaken Baby Syndrome” hyperlink). 491 See Child Abuse, Pediatric Orthopaedic Soc'y of N. Am, http:// www.posna.org/education/StudyGuide/childAbuse.asp (last visited Oct. 23, 2011); Fractures Associated with Head Injury, Pediatric Orthopaedic Soc'y of N. Am., http:// www.posna.org/education/ StudyGuide/fracturesAssociatedwithHeadInjury.asp (last visited Oct. 23, 2011) 492 See Doraliz Hidalgo & Bernard L. Lopez, Head Trauma in Children Younger Than 2 Years, Critical Decisions Emergency Med., Apr. 2007, at 16 (presenting instruction for emergency physicians). 493 Shaken Baby Syndrome, Am. Acad. of Neurology, http:// www.aan.com/apps/disorders/index.cfm?event=database %3adisorder.view&disorder_ id=1060 (last visited Oct. 23, 2011). 494 Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharm., Inc., 509 U.S. 579, 592 (1993) (footnotes omitted). 495 Id. at 593. 496 Id. 497 Id. at 594. 498 Id. Other factors for a trial court's consideration include whether “the expert's qualifications are sufficient... [whether] the method has been put to non-judicial uses... ‘whether the expert's proposed testimony grows naturally and directly out of research the expert has conducted independent of the litigation’... ‘whether the expert has unjustifiably extrapolated from accepted premise to unfounded conclusion’... [and] ‘whether the expert has adequately accounted for alternative explanations.”’ David v. Black & Decker (US) Inc., 629 F. Supp. 2d 511, 514 (W.D. Pa. 2009) (citing Magistrini v. One Hour Martinizing Dry Cleaning, 180 F. Supp. 2d 584, 594 (D.N.J. 2002), aff'd 68 Fed. Appx. 356 (3d Cir. 2003)) (citation omitted). 499 See supra Section II.B.2 (“Statistical Evidence”). 500 See, e.g., Hymel et al., Head Injury Depth, supra note 285, at 712-13. 501 See, e.g., Dubowitz et al., supra note 422, at 1617 (using MRI in near drowning episodes); Wells et al., supra note 286, at 252 (assessment using CT). 502 See, e.g., Luck et al., supra note 451, at 107, 109 (showing use of a physical forces perspective). 503 See, e.g., Geddes et al., supra note 396, at 18-19. 504 See supra text accompanying notes 234-35. 505 See infra Appendix A. 506 See In re Neurontin Mktg., Sales Practices & Prod. Liab., 612 F.Supp. 2d 116, 140 (D. Mass. 2009) (“Statistical evidence significance is one of the factors the Court should examine when determining whether a drug can cause an adverse event.”); see also Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharm., Inc., 509 U.S. 579, 594 (1993) (“[I]n the case of a particular scientific technique, the court ordinarily should consider the known or potential rate of error.”) 507 As stated in the general statistics section above, in social sciences and medicine, this “observed significance level” (the p-value) is usually set at 5% (or 0.05) for “statistically significant,” or 1% (or 0.01) for “moderately high” statistical significance, and 0.1% (or 0.001) for “high or strong” statistical significance. See supra Section II(B)(1)(b). © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 83 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 11 Hous. J. Health L.... 508 See S. Maguire et al., supra note 364, at 860 (systematic review showing positive predictive value for RH of 71%); Vinchon et al., supra note 285, at 380 (recent study showing specificity of 93.2% for RH in AHT and 100% of severe RH in AHT); see also Vinchon et al., supra note 280, at 642 tbl.4 (recent study showing severe RH specificity of 0.974 and a positive predictive value of 0.961). 509 See Vinchon et al., supra note 280, at 637. 510 In the 1950s, two eminent psychologists, Campbell and Fiske, sought to provide validation for psychological assessment tools that assessed vague variables such as courteousness, honesty, self-centeredness, imaginativeness, talkativeness, etc. See Donald T. Campbell & Donald W. Fiske, Convergent and Discriminant Validation by the Multitrait-Multimethod Matrix, 56 Psychol. Bull. 81, 98 tbl.13 (1959). In creating the multitrait-multimethod approach to assessing validity of psychological assessment tools, Campbell and Fiske determined that one of the key components was the concept of “convergent validation.” Id. at 81. 511 Id. at 81. 512 Id. 513 See People v. Martinez, 74 P.3d 316, 323 (Colo. 2003) (“[W]e assume, as it is not in dispute, that the scientific principles of shaken- impact syndrome and subdural hematomas resulting from extreme accidents are reasonably reliable”); State v. McClary, 541 A.2d 96, 102 (Conn. 1988) (shaken baby syndrome is generally accepted by medical science); State v. Torres, 121 P.3d 429, 437 (Kan. 2005) (testimony by physicians that infant's injuries were shaken baby syndrome, and not consistent with falling off a chair was sufficient for conviction of felony murder); State v. Leibhart, 662 N.W.2d 618 (Neb. 2003) (expert testimony on shaken baby syndrome admissible; passes Daubert); Order Denying Motion to Exclude Testimony on AHT/SBS at 5, State v. Mendoza, No. 071908696 (Utah Dist. Ct., June 5, 2009) (“[T]he State's experts made a very compelling... showing that SBS is both still widely accepted and applicable to the current case”); see also R v. Harris, [2005] EWCA (Crim) 1980, [267] (Eng.); R v. Henderson; R v. Butler; R v. Oyediran, [2010] EWCA (Crim) 1269, [7] (Eng.). 514 While other criteria, such as academic appointment, research, and publication, are desirable, they are not necessary to declare one as a part of the “relevant” scientific community. 515 See Kassirer & Cecil, supra note 54, at 1383 (discussing Kumho). 516 R v. Henderson; R v. Butler; R v. Oyediran, [2010] EWCA (Crim) 1269, [208] (Eng.) (emphasis added). 517 See, e.g., Martinez, 74 P.3d at 323; McClary, 541 A.2d at 102; State v. Edmunds, 746 N.W.2d 590, 593 (Wis. Ct. App. 2008); Order Determining Admissibility of Expert Testimony on AHT/SBS at 22-23, Commonwealth v. Davis, No. 04-CR-205 (Ky. Cir. Ct., Apr. 17, 2006); Order Denying Motion to Exclude Testimony on AHT/SBS at 6, State v. Mendoza, No. 071908696 (Utah Dist. Ct., June 5, 2009). 518 Compare Order Denying Motion to Exclude Testimony on AHT/SBS at 5-6, State v. Mendoza, No. 071908696 (Utah Dist. Ct., June 5, 2009) (accepting AHT testimony), with Edmunds, 746 N.W.2d at 594 (giving a new trial because scientific doubt surrounds AHT diagnoses). 519 See supra Section II.B.c.1--“A Shifted Consensus?”--where fifteen national and international medical societies are listed as publicly supporting the validity of AHT as a medical diagnosis. As mentioned in that section, the only “relevant” disciplines with some discord are pathologists and biomechanical engineers. 520 Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharm., Inc., 509 U.S. 579, 590 (1993). 521 Kumho Tire Co. v. Carmichael, 526 U.S. 137, 152 (1999). 522 Breyer, supra note 57, at 6. 523 See Jerome P. Kassirer & Richard I. Kopelman, Learning Clinical Reasoning 16 (1991) (“Bayesian analysis assembles a complete set of diagnostic hypotheses that can explain a given set for clinical findings. For each hypothesis, a set of relevant attributes is identified (historical findings, physical findings, complications, predisposing factors, laboratory results) that might help discriminate among the diagnoses. The prior probability of each diagnostic hypothesis is specified numerically, as is the probability that each attribute is found in each disease entity. Then, a calculation is make of the likelihood of each disease entity given the disease prevalence and the © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 84 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 11 Hous. J. Health L.... probability of each clinical attribute.”). Although physician reasoning does not exclusively proceed in a Bayesian fashion, physicians do frequently rely on Bayesian reasoning (combining disease prevalence with their knowledge of frequency of signs and symptoms in a given disease) in the diagnostic process. See Henifin, et al., supra note 91, at 467. 524 See Jerome P. Kassirer & Frank A. Sonnenberg, The Scientific Basis of Diagnosis, in Textbook of Internal Medicine 14, 14-15 (William N. Kelley ed., J.B. Libbincott Co. 1989); Kassirer & Kopelman, supra note 523, at 3. 525 See Kassirer & Sonnenberg, supra note 524, at 14; see also Kassirer & Kopelman, supra note 523, at 16 (defining differential diagnosis). 526 See Kassirer & Sonnenberg, supra note 524, at 15; see also Kassirer & Kopelman, supra note 523, at 11 (“Hypothesis refinement is an evolving, sequential process of data gathering and interpretation.”). Rather than exclusively relying on statistical data on disease prevalence to generate diagnostic hypotheses, the physician also utilizes “heuristics” (or shortcuts/rules of thumb) to make the task of information gathering manageable and efficient. Kassirer & Kopelman, supra note 523, at 4. 527 See Kassirer & Sonnenberg, supra note 524, at 15; see also Kassirer & Kopelman, supra note 523, at 11. (“Hypothesis refinement is an evolving sequential process of data gathering and interpretation.”). Probabilistic reasoning is Bayesian-type reasoning where prior probabilities of diseases are considered and combined with a physician's knowledge of the frequency of signs and symptoms in a given disease and the probabilities of specific test information. These assist the physician in a probabilistic assessment of the most likely hypothesis. Causal reasoning “is a function of the anatomical, physiological and biochemical mechanisms that operate normally in the human body and the pathophysiologic behavior of these mechanisms in disease.” See Kassirer & Kopelman, supra note 523, at 28. Physicians “are accustomed to use any reliable data to assess causality, no matter what their source.... Temporal proximity can be a potent factor in causal decision making....” Kassirer & Cecil, supra note 54, at 1384. 528 “Adequacy occurs when a “diagnostic hypothesis... encompasses all surviving hypotheses and... accounts for all the patient's findings, whether abnormal or normal.” Kassirer & Kopelman, supra note 523, at 32. Coherency occurs “when a patient's findings are consistent with the altered pathophysiology of the hypothesized disease state.” Id. Parsimony is “the simplest possible explanation all of the [patient's] findings.” Id. 529 See Best v. Lowe's Home Ctrs. Inc., 563 F.3d 171, 179, 183-84 (6th Cir. 2009) (stating a differential diagnosis can be adequate grounds for a causation opinion under Daubert); Hyman & Armstrong, P.S.C. v. Gunderson, 279 S.W.3d 93, 107, 109 (Ky. 2008); Westberry v. Gislaved Gummi AB, 178 F.3d 257, 263 (4th Cir. 1999). But see, Moore v. Ashland Chem. Inc., 151 F.3d 269, 279 (5th Cir. 1998) (denying admissibility of expert testimony based upon the differential diagnosis); Moore 151 F.3d at 288 (dissent). 530 See Gunderson, 279 S.W.3d at 107 (citing Globetti v. Sandoz Pharms. Corp., 111 F.Supp.2d 1174 (N.D. Ala. 2000)). 531 In re Paoli R.R. Yard PCB Litig., 35 F.3d 717, 759 (3d Cir. 1994) (noting there is “a requirement that experts at least consider alternative causes” and that this concept is “at the core of differential diagnosis.”); see Heller v. Shaw Industries, Inc., 167 F.3d 146, 156 (3d Cir. 1999) (stating that before allowing differential diagnosis reasoning as grounds for causation, a medical expert must rule out “obvious alternative causes,” but not, “categorically, all other possible causes” of an injury). 532 See State v. McClary, 541 A.2d 96, 102 (1988) (noting shaken baby syndrome is generally accepted by medical science). 533 See United States v. Vallo, 238 F.3d 1242, 1245 (10th Cir. 2001); People v. Dunaway, 88 P.3d 619, 633-34 (Colo. 2004); People v. Martinez, 74 P.3d 316, 323, 324-25 (Colo. 2003); State v. Leibhart, 662 N.W.2d 618, 627-28 (Neb. 2003); State v. Glenn, 900 So.2d 26, 34-35 (La. Ct. App. 2005); Order Denying Motion to Exclude Testimony on AHT/SBS at 5-6, State v. Mendoza, No. 071908696 (Utah Dist. Ct., June 5, 2009). 534 R v. Harris, [2005] EWCA (Crim) 1980, [4]-[5]. 535 Id. at [3]. 536 Id. at [56]. 537 Id. at [5]. 538 Id. at [57]-[58] (emphasis added). © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 85 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 11 Hous. J. Health L.... 539 Id. at [68]-[69] (emphasis added). 540 See id. at [102]-[103]. 541 Id. at [101]. 542 Id. at [153]. 543 Id. at [153], [266]. 544 Id. at [185], [219]. 545 Other challenges to admissibility of AHT testimony have included 403 challenges (that a medical diagnosis of child abuse is confusing to a jury in relation to the legal definition of child abuse, within a particular state, and consequently, the prejudicial value outweighs the probative value) and challenges to the admissibility of testimony on the amount of force required to cause the injuries. See People v. Martinez, 74 P.3d 316, 321-22 (Colo. 2003). For a comprehensive review of the evidentiary challenges in AHT testimony, see John E.B. Myers, Myers on Evidence in Child, Domestic, and Elder Abuse Cases (Aspen Publishers, vol. 1 2005) and John E. B. Myers, Myers on Evidence in Child, Domestic and Elder Abuse Cases (Aspen Publishers, supp. 2007). See supra Section II(B)(2)(“Statistical Evidence”). Mack et al., supra note 396, at 208. Squier & Mack, supra note 396, at 10. See id.; Mack et al., supra at 396, at 208. See supra Part (d)(ii) Alternative Hypotheses. A Local Auth. v. S, [2009] EWHC (Fam) 2115 [63], [199], [201]-[203] (Eng.) (emphasis added). Id. at [284]-[286] (emphasis added) (heading omitted). R v. Henderson; R v. Butler; R v. Oyediran, [2010] EWCA (Crim) 1269 [188], [190] (Eng.) (emphasis added). State v. Smallwood, 955 P.2d 1209, 1220-21 (Kan. 1998). See State v. Smith, 877 So. 2d 1123, 1127-29 (La. Ct. App. 2004) (fatal shaking and impact case; doctor testified child's injuries were abusive); State v. Smallwood, 955 P.2d 1209, 1221 (1998) (infant died of inflicted head injury; pathologist opined the child died of abuse: “by stating that, based upon her medical experience, Kaine died as a result of child abuse, either shaking or a blow to the skull, Dr. Gould was not testifying as to the ultimate question of Smallwood's guilt or innocence. Expert testimony in the form of an opinion is not objectionable because it embraces the ultimate issue or issues to be decided by the trier of fact.”). 556 Estelle v. McGuire, 502 U.S. 62, 68 (1991). 557 Id. (citation omitted). 558 See Kempe et al., supra note 148, at 143; Tuerkheimer, supra note 4, at 31. 559 See State v. Torres, 121 P.3d 429, 446-47 (Kan. 2005). 560 State v. Edmunds, 746 N.W.2d 590, 596 (Wis. Ct. App. 2008). 561 See R v. Henderson; R v. Butler; R v. Oyediran, EWCA (Crim) 1269 at [188]-[190]; Order Denying Motion to Exclude Testimony on AHT/SBS at 1-4, State v. Mendoza, No. 071908696 (Utah Dist. Ct., June 5, 2009). 562 Order Determining Admissibility of Expert Testimony on AHT/SBS at 22, Commonwealth v. Davis, No. 04-CR-205 (Ky. Cir. Ct., Apr. 17, 2006). © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 86 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 11 Hous. J. Health L.... 563 See, e.g., State v. Leibhart 662 N.W.2d 618, 627-28 (Neb. 2003); Order Denying Motion to Exclude Testimony on AHT/SBS at 5-6, State v. Mendoza, No. 071908696 (Utah Dist. Ct., June 5, 2009). 564 See Edmunds, 746 N.W.2d at 596. 565 See id. 566 A Local Auth. v. S, [2009] EWHC (Fam) 2115 [199] (Eng.) (emphasis added). 567 Breyer, supra note 57, at 4. 568 Id. at 6.

¹³ Hous. J. Health L. & Pol'y 203 Houston Journal of Health Law & Policy Fall 2013 Articles A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD TRAUMA/SHAKEN BABY SYNDROME--PART II: AN EXAMINATION OF THE DIFFERENTIAL DIAGNOSIS Sandeep K. Narang, M.D., J.D., John D. Melville, M.D., Christopher S. Greeley, M.D., James D. Anderst, M.D., Shannon L Carpenter, M.D., and Betty Spivack, M.D. Copyright (c) 2013 Houston Journal of Health Law & Policy; Sandeep K. Narang, M.D., J.D.; John D. Melville, M.D.; Christopher S. Greeley, M.D.; James D. Anderst, M.D.; Shannon L Carpenter, M.D.; Betty Spivack, M.D. I. Introduction 205 II. Evidence-Based Medicine & AHT/SBS 209 Table 1: Centre for Evidence Based Medicine Levels of Evidence Scale for a Diagnosis 211 III. Accidental Injury 213 A. Short Falls 213 Scientific Conclusion #1: 214 Scientific Conclusion #2: 216 Scientific Conclusion #3: 217 Scientific Conclusion #4: 218 Scientific Conclusion #5: 219 Scientific Conclusion #6: 220 Scientific Conclusion #7: 223 Figure 1: Table from David L. Chadwick et al., Annual Risk of Death Resulting 224 B. Other Accident Literature 226 C. Conclusion 228 IV. Bleeding Disorders 229 A. Causes (Etiologies) of Bleeding Disorders 230 1. Congenital Bleeding Disorders 231 2. Acquired Bleeding Disorders 231 B. Symptoms of Bleeding Disorders 233 C. Sources of Data 234 D. Testing for and Probability of Bleeding Disorders in the Setting of ICH 236 Table 2: Probabilities for Congenital Coagulopathies to Cause ICH a,b 239 E. Special Considerations 240 1. Von Willebrand Disease (VWD) 241 2. Mild Platelet Disorders 244 F. Conclusion 245 V. Biomechanics 246 Question 1: 247 Question 2: 252 Question 3: 254 Question 4: 259 Question 5: 260 Conclusion 262 VI. Hypoxia 263 A. Geddes and the Unified Theory 264 Geddes 1: 264 Geddes 2: 266 Geddes 3: 268 © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 1 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... B. Scientific Critique of the Unified Theory 269 C. Adjunct Hypotheses 275 D. Scientific Critique of the Adjunct Hypotheses 278 E. Conclusion 281 VII. The Daubert Analysis 281 A. Does a Physician's Testimony in Child Abuse Cases Constitute “Scientific,” “Technical,” or “Other 283 Specialized Knowledge?‘ B. Is the Physician's Testimony in AHT/SBS Cases the “Product of Reliable Principles and 288 Methodology?” 1. Are the scientific principles and evidence underlying the AHT/SBS diagnosis “reliable” (i.e., the 290 “major premise”)? 2. What is the “Differential Diagnosis Methodology?” 302 3. Is the “differential diagnosis methodology,” in general, a reliable methodology for applying the 305 major premise to the specific facts of a case (i.e., the “minor premise”)? C. The “Path Forward”: Throwing the Baby out with the Bath Water (Figuratively Speaking) 322 1. The fog of legal argument 322 2. Lifting the fog 324 VIII. Conclusion 327 *205 I. Introduction For reasons inexplicable to many physicians, and unbeknownst to many others, the diagnosis of Abusive Head Trauma/Shaken Baby Syndrome 1 (AHT/SBS) remains a lightning rod for controversy. Public media articles continue to be published. 2 Legal articles *206 continue to be written. 3 And judicial commentary on the science continues to occur. 4 The most recent example of judicial commentary upon the topic, and probably the most prominent, is the dissenting opinion of the honorable Justices Ginsburg, Sotomayor, and Breyer in Cavazos v. Smith. 5 In that opinion, the dissenting justices cited seven medical articles that ostensibly supported their opinions that: 1) “there was inadequate scientific evidence to come to a firm conclusion on most aspects of causation, diagnosis, treatment, or any other matters pertaining to SBS”; 2) “that ‘the commonly held opinion that the finding of [subdural hemorrhage] and [retinal hemorrhage] in an infant was strong evidence of SBS was unsustainable”’; and 3) that “doubt has increased in the medical community ‘over whether infants can be fatally injured through shaking alone.”’ 6 Setting aside the multiple concerns regarding the selection criteria for the articles, 7 the irony in the citation of these articles is that the articles cited by the dissenting justices are actually so methodologically flawed, scientifically inaccurate, and of the lowest level of evidence-based medical literature, that they would be reasonable examples of articles that are “not even good enough to be wrong.” 8 So how do the most learned jurists in the land get the *207 science so wrong? 9 And what hope is there then for the lone “gatekeeper”? In Part I of this discussion, one of the authors, Dr. Narang, presented a relatively comprehensive analysis of the current science surrounding AHT/SBS, and more specifically, surrounding two of the most common injuries found in AHT/SBS--subdural hemorrhages (SDHs) and retinal hemorrhages (RHs). 10 Dr. Narang asserted that the diagnosis of AHT is supported by “at least 700 peer-reviewed, clinical medical articles comprising thousands of pages of medical literature, published by over 1,000 different medical authors, from at least twenty-eight different countries.” 11 He described, in painful detail, multiple scientific studies from various medical disciplines that demonstrated a significant statistical association of SDHs with AHT 12 (over accidents and other medical causes) and that demonstrated a highly significant statistical association of severe RHs with AHT 13 (over accidents and other medical causes). Despite the reported “controversy” on the topic, Dr. Narang cited at least fifteen international and national professional medical societies that have publicly acknowledged the validity of AHT either through formal practice statements or through educational materials provided to their members or the public. 14 In conclusion, Dr. Narang examined that scientific literature with Daubert scrutiny and argued that such literature was scientifically valid, and © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 2 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... consequently, did provide the clinician with sound scientific basis for arriving at diagnosis of AHT. 15 However, as Dr. Narang alluded to in his initial article, that was only part of the analysis. *208 Part II of this discussion swings the microscope in the opposite direction. The differential diagnosis of AHT (and its two most common injuries, SDHs and RHs) includes many things--accidental trauma, birth trauma, bleeding disorders, malignancy, and metabolic/genetic syndromes, to name a few. 16 Although a detailed scientific analysis 17 of the entire differential diagnosis is beyond the purpose and scope of this article, this paper will examine the best, current evidence-based data for two of the most common items on the differential diagnosis, accidental injury and bleeding disorders, and then examine the evidentiary basis for two of the most debated topics in AHT, biomechanics and hypoxia/ischemia. In being provided with the “rest of the story,” the reader will, hopefully, be able to see the relative strengths and weaknesses of the scientific data underpinning SDHs, RHs, and the differential diagnosis. The reader will thereafter be able to discern for himself or herself whether the scientific data afford the clinician reasonable grounds for arriving at the diagnosis of AHT. More importantly, the reader will be provided with a reasonable glimpse of the entire analysis --the methodology--a clinician undertakes in arriving at the AHT diagnosis and be able to conclude for himself or herself whether that methodology is reasonable or simply “junk science.” In the first subsection of this paper, we briefly review the concept of “evidence-based medicine,” discuss its proper role in present-day clinical medicine, and proffer an acceptable ranking scale for evidence-based medical literature, 18 a scale that shall be applied to the scientific literature discussed herein. Thereafter, we place accidental injuries and bleeding disorders under the evidence-based microscope, examining that literature in light of the Oxford rating *209 scale for evidence-based medicine. We then detail the current state of knowledge on biomechanics and hypoxiaischemia, 19 highlighting the weaknesses and limitations that infect that literature. Finally, we magnify the microscopic examination of the differential diagnosis method, examining it closely with both a scientific and legal lens. In so doing, we garner and dissect the scientific and legal arguments around that methodology, discuss the fallacious arguments critiquing the AHT/SBS literature, and propose some solutions going forward for the identification and promulgation of sound scientific evidence on the topic in the legal setting. II. Evidence-Based Medicine & AHT/SBS “I look upon it as being a great part of the art to be able to judge properly of that which has been written.” 20 -Hippocrates Physicians have been trained in the natural sciences, the advancement of medical knowledge, and the critical appraisal of medical literature since the dawn of medicine. 21 Medical journals and the peer review system now date back nearly 200 years. 22 With the burgeoning of medical publications and the advent of electronic indexing of the medical literature in the 1970s and 1980s, it clearly became untenable for an individual practitioner to remain aware of all the research activity in even a small specialty of medical practice. *210 From this environment of rapid scientific discovery grew a new movement: Evidence-Based Medicine (EBM). Perhaps described best by one of its founders, Dr. David Sackett, EBM is the “conscientious, explicit, and judicious use of the current, best evidence in making decisions about individual care.” 23 The review article containing an expert's opinion about research was replaced by a systematic review: a thorough, exacting, and repeatable methodology for grading and summarizing the most current medical evidence. A central tenet of EBM is that not all evidence is of equal quality. 24 In seeking out the “best” evidence, one has to make value judgments, and do so without reference to the outcome of the study. 25 The value judgments that ascribe one study as better than another are primarily based upon the technical elements of the design and execution of the study. 26 There has been a proliferation of “rating scales” that rate medical studies. 27 Some scales 28 are more appropriate for assessing the quality of © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 3 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... literature on therapeutic modalities *211 in clinical medicine; others provide multiple scales that are amenable to different kinds of studies. 29 For example, the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine (CEBM) at The University of Oxford utilizes five different scales--for assessments of literature on therapy, prognosis, diagnosis, symptom prevalence, and economic decision analysis. 30 The CEBM scale for diagnostic literature is listed below in Table 1. 31 Table 1: Centre for Evidence Based Medicine Levels of Evidence Scale for a Diagnosis 32 1a Systematic review (with homogeneity) of level 1 diagnostic studies or clinical decision rule with 1b studies from different clinical centers. 1b Validating cohort study with good reference standards or clinical decision rule tested within one clinical center. 1c A diagnostic finding so strong that it absolutely confirms or refutes the diagnosis. 2a Systematic review (with homogeneity) of 2b or better studies. 2b Exploratory cohort study with good reference standards; clinical decision rule after derivation or validated only on split-samples or databases. 3a Systematic review (with homogeneity) of 3b or better studies. 3b Non-consecutive study or without consistently applied reference standards. 4 Case-control study, poor, or non-independent reference standard. 5 Expert opinion without explicit, critical appraisal; or based on physiology, bench research, or “first principles.” *212 A prime example of the misapplication of ratings scales is that of Donohoe in his oft-cited, unfortunate article Evidence-Based Medicine and Shaken Baby Syndrome. 33 While Donohoe decries the absence of randomized-controlled trials, 34 the CEBM levels of evidence scale for a diagnosis does not even include randomized-controlled trials. 35 The CEBM correctly recognizes that the randomized trial, while excellent for evaluating a therapy, is not an appropriate tool for evaluating a diagnosis. The last element of the “current, best evidence” in EBM is the emphasis on the adjective “current.” 36 Some critics of the AHT/ SBS diagnosis propose a level of diagnostic abstinence until some future level of scientific precision (akin to a “DNA-type” evidence) can be achieved. 37 Yet, even the most ardent EBM advocates would not purport such diagnostic impotence whilst awaiting some yet-unrealized, “absolute” diagnostic certainty. The emphasis of EBM is to focus on the best available evidence, not to discard the evidence we have simply because better evidence is not yet available. *213 III. Accidental Injury Accidents, 38 often as a result of falls, are a commonly reported cause of head injury in children. 39 In Fujiwara et al.'s review of 28 AHT cases and 232 non-abusive head injuries, fall was the history presented in at least 17.9% and 62.9% of the cases, respectively. 40 This section details the evidence that physicians can reliably utilize to distinguish accidental from nonaccidental trauma. While it might seem that accidental trauma and inflicted trauma would be difficult to differentiate, a number of studies demonstrate that this actually is possible. A. Short Falls A particularly common childhood injury reported to pediatricians is the “short fall.” 41 Because injuries later thought to be abusive are often blamed on short falls, they merit special attention. Authors in pediatric literature have defined short falls as heights varying from less than 15 feet, 42 to 10 feet, 43 to less than 1.5 meters *214 (4.9 feet). 44 Although there exists no standardized definition of a “short fall,” more recently consensus has shifted toward recognizing a “short fall” as a fall of less than 1.5 m. 45 © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 4 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... There is an abundance of medical literature on pediatric short falls. Studies have focused on a variety of injury aspects--whether there are observed differences in witnessed versus unwitnessed falls, in falls of varying degrees of height, and in falls with varying biomechanical forces and aspects. 46 Study designs have ranged from isolated case reports to large epidemiologic studies and systematic reviews. 47 Methodological differences have posed challenges to collectively assimilating data in systematic reviews. 48 However, a comprehensive review 49 of the scientific literature does permit the clinician to draw the following conclusions with a reasonable degree of medical certainty. Scientific Conclusion #1: When caregivers have been surveyed, they report that short falls are common, but severe 50 injuries from *215 short falls are rare. In 2010, Suzanne B. Haney et al. surveyed 307 parents, asking if their child had fallen off a “high surface” such as a table, bed, or dresser, before the age of two. 51 Forty percent of parents recalled such a fall, and fifty-nine percent of parents recalled more than one such fall. 52 Among the 209 reported falls, the only serious injuries reported were two concussions. 53 There were no reported subdural hematomas, retinal hemorrhages, or deaths. 54 These results accorded with Warrington et al., a similar, but much larger, study from the United Kingdon in 2001. 55 In that study, when their child had reached six months of age, parents were asked to describe any accident that had occurred with their child since birth. 56 The authors received data on over 2500 children, with over 3300 falls being reported. 57 Of these approximate 3300 falls, 1782 (53%) were falls from beds or settees. 58 Only twenty-one falls (less than one percent) resulted in concussion or fracture. 59 There were no reported intracranial injuries *216 or death. 60 Other authors who have surveyed parents/caregivers have obtained similar results. 61 Although these two cross-sectional studies would merit only a 4 on the Oxford CEBM scale, 62 they hold some scientific significance in that the subjects studied had no motivation or inclination to provide inaccurate data. 63 Scientific Conclusion #2: Short falls occurring in objective settings, such as hospitals, have not resulted in subdural hematoma or death. In 1993, Lyons and Oates reported on 207 children who fell out of bed in the hospital in which a nurse either observed the fall or attended to the child within seconds of the fall. 64 Falls ranged from 32-54 inches. 65 One child sustained a skull fracture and another child sustained a clavicle fracture. 66 There were no multiple injuries, visceral injuries, severe head injuries, or deaths. 67 These results accorded not only with prior studies by Nimityongskul 68 in 1987 and Levene 69 in 1991, but with subsequent studies by Monson 70 in 2008, *217 Ruddick 71 in 2010, and Schaffer 72 in 2012. In total, these case series describe over 620 falls in objective 73 settings (i.e., hospitals), with no consequent serious head injuries or deaths. Although these studies are case series, or level 3b evidence on the CEBM scale, given the increased level of objectivity to the observed injuries, they warrant significant scientific consideration. Scientific Conclusion #3: Children in large, licensed daycares rarely die from short falls. Another source of independently observed childhood falls is daycare. Licensed daycare centers are an attractive environment to study short falls because structural layout and institutional policy effectively minimize abuse and because of facilitates' reporting of accidents and abuse. 74 Chadwick conducted a comprehensive review of all daycare studies in the world's medical literature. 75 He found twenty-five studies that focused on injuries occurring in daycare, studies from the U.S., Canada, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark. 76 © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 5 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... Only two of the twenty-five studies specifically looked at deaths in the daycare setting. 77 Good et al. reviewed data on over 520,000 children in day- *218 care centers and found no deaths attributed to falls. 78 Wrigley and Dreby examined data on over six million children in child care centers over an eighteen-year period (1985-2003) and found only two reported deaths attributed to falls in large, licensed child care centers. 79 However, these two reported deaths stemmed from newspaper reports and, consequently, provided no detailed data for scientific analysis. 80 Despite having over 900,000 children under age two in U.S. daycare centers 81 with multiple falls occurring daily, to date there is no peer-reviewed medical report of a death resulting from a short fall in a large, licensed daycare center. 82 Scientific Conclusion #4: Severe injuries and deaths are rare in short falls witnessed by two or more adults, but ironically, are more common in short falls witnessed by a single adult. Williams reviewed the cases of 398 patients treated with injuries resulting from a fall. 83 Of these 398 patients, 106 were less than three years old and the fall was witnessed by at least two adults. 84 The only death in this group was a child who fell seventy feet. 85 The only serious injuries resulting from observed falls less than ten feet were children (three percent) with depressed skull fractures after falling against an “edged” surface. 86 In contrast, among fifty-three children *219 under three whose falls were witnessed by fewer than two adults, eighteen had serious injuries and two died after reported falls of less than five feet. 87 Similar results and conclusions were reached by Wrigley and Dreby 88 in their comprehensive review of daycare literature, by Reece & Sege, 89 and by Johnson et al. 90 Although Williams's, Johnson's, and Reece & Sege's case series only merit level 3b evidence on the CEBM scale, they provide interesting insight into the histories provided by caregivers in abusive and accidental injuries. Scientific Conclusion #5: If reports of deaths from uncorroborated short falls are accepted as valid, then short falls appear to be more dangerous than longer falls. Williams noted another anomaly. In his study of 398 patients, uncorroborated reports indicated two deaths followed falls of less than five feet, but no deaths followed falls of 6-11 feet or 12-23 feet. 91 Chadwick et al. noted similar findings in their review of 317 uncorroborated falls requiring medical attention. 92 Among 183 children who reportedly fell 5-45 feet, only one died. 93 Among 100 children reported to have fallen less than four feet, seven died. 94 All seven children had other factors concerning for a false history, including old fractures, bruising on the trunk or extremities, genital injury, or *220 more than one impact point on the head. 95 Similar results were obtained by Reece & Sege. 96 Although the biomechanics of a short fall are a complex phenomenon, and probably not simply a factor of height, 97 other authors have also noted a correlation between increased fall height and injury severity. 98 Scientific Conclusion #6: Well-designed prospective studies reveal that severe injuries or deaths resulting from short falls are rare events. In 1992, Duhaime et al. prospectively studied 100 patients less than two years of age who suffered head injuries. 99 In efforts to avoid “circularity” concerns, Duhaime et al. used strict criteria for determining “inflicted” injury. 100 The authors excluded retinal hemorrhages (RHs) as a diagnostic criterion and only included SDHs that had no history of trauma but had clinical or radiologic findings of blunt impact to the head. 101 Thus, the authors designed an algorithm that was “deliberately biased to reduce false positives and, thus, underestimate the true incidence of child abuse.” 102 In the Duhaime et al. cohort, seventy-six patients' injuries were determined to be from *221 accidental causes, and twenty-four were determined to be inflicted. 103 © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 6 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... Of the 100 studied patients, seventy-three suffered head injuries from reported falls, nine from motor vehicle accidents, two from impacts by other objects, two admitted assaults, and fourteen without any history. 104 Of those seventy-three reported falls, thirty-four (47%) were from falls less than four feet, twenty-one (29%) from falls greater than four feet, and eighteen (25%) from falls from walkers or down stairs. 105 Of the thirty-four reported short falls, twenty-six were determined to be accidental, and eight were determined to be inflicted. 106 Of the twenty-six accidental short falls, none had SDHs or RHs. 107 In Duhaime et al.'s entire 100-patient cohort, there were only four deaths--three from the inflicted group and one from the accidental group. 108 The only death from the accidental category was a passenger in a high-speed motor vehicle accident. 109 Similar results were obtained by Bechtel et al. in their prospective study of 87 children aged 0-2 years at Yale Children's Hospital from 2000-2002. 110 In 2011, Thompson et al. reported their prospective study of seventy-nine children less than four years of age who presented to the emergency department of Kosair Childrens' Hospital (Louisville, KY) between May 2008-July 2009 with a complaint of a household fall from a bed, sofa, or similar furniture. 111 The authors sought to determine the severity of injuries that resulted from accidental short-distance household falls in children and to investigate the association *222 of fall environment and biomechanical measures with injury outcomes. 112 The authors excluded all children suspected of abuse and included only children whose injuries were “definite” or “likely” accidents. 113 The authors conducted interviews with the caregivers and in- depth scene investigations in all seventy-nine cases in order to obtain information regarding fall dynamics and to determine biomechanical measures associated with these falls. 114 Of the seventy-nine subjects enrolled, fifteen had no injuries, forty-five had minor (AIS 1) injuries, 115 seventeen had moderate (AIS 2) injuries, 116 and two had serious (AIS 3) injuries. 117 No subjects had injuries classified as AIS 4 or higher, and there were no fatalities. 118 The authors also determined that, in their study, “furniture height, impact velocity, and child BMI were found to have the greatest influence on injury severity outcomes. Children with moderate or serious injuries tended to have fallen from greater heights, had greater impact velocities, and had a lower BMI than those with minor or no injuries.” 119 Thompson et al. concluded that “[t]his study provides a comprehensive evaluation of the biomechanics of short-distance household falls and investigates the association of biomechanical and fall environment measures with injury severity. Children aged 0-4 years involved in a short-distance household fall did not sustain severe or life-threatening injuries.” 120 Duhaime's, Bechtel's, and Thompson's studies merit level 2b evidence on the CEBM scale. *223 Scientific Conclusion #7: Systematic reviews of the short-fall literature indicate that short falls rarely cause death in children. In 2009, Chadwick et al. sought to numerically quantify the risk of death from short falls. 121 The authors performed an extensive review of the published medical literature on short falls, “including 5 book chapters, 2 medical society statements, 7 major literature reviews, 3 public injury databases, and 177 peer-reviewed, published articles indexed in the National Library of Medicine.” 122 The authors examined data and literature from any and every short fall aspect: reliably witnessed falls, child-care studies, studies of large clinical populations (more than fifty cases), studies of single cases or small series (less than fifty cases), studies of long falls, pathologic and cadaveric studies, studies involving biomechanical analysis, playground-fall studies, studies involving falls down stairs, walker-related falls, parent-observation studies, and studies specifically addressing short-fall death. 123 When reviewing the two large injury databases (California's EPIC 124 database and the CDC's WISQRS 125 database), Chadwick et al. found that WISQRS allowed determination of the total fall death rate for children less than four years of age, but © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 7 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... did not provide stratification according to fall type/height. 126 Per the WISQRS database, “[t]he ‘all fall’ death rate was [three] cases per [one] million young children per year.” 127 However, California's EPIC database did stratify data for short falls. 128 For the period 1999-2003, the EPIC database revealed six short fall fatalities. 129 In a state with 2.5 million *224 children under five years old, this calculated to 0.48 deaths per million children per year. 130 Chadwick et al. provided comparative risk estimates for other conditions that caused death in infants and children (see Figure 1 below): TABULAR OR GRAPHIC MATERIAL SET FORTH AT THIS POINT IS NOT DISPLAYABLE Figure 1: Table from David L. Chadwick et al., Annual Risk of Death Resulting 131 Hence, based upon Chadwick et al.'s data, the chance of any given child dying of a short fall in any given year is approximately one in two million. However, to truly approximate the probability of a single fall causing death, one would need to multiply the one in two million by the number of falls a typical toddler or child experiences in a year. Ehsani et al. also conducted a comprehensive review of the short-fall literature with the aim of answering the question: “Can a simple short fall cause fatal head injury in an infant?” 132 Toward this aim, *225 Ehsani et al. considered 1055 publications for inclusion. 133 Using explicit selection criteria, only twenty-seven publications were included in their review. 134 The authors concluded that it is “rare, but possible, for fatal head injury to occur from a simple short fall.” 135 The authors went on to state that “[l]arge population studies of childhood injuries indicate that severe head injury from a short fall is extremely rare. This is counter pointed by a single documented case report that demonstrates it can happen.” 136 Plunkett also sought to assess the plausibility of short-fall deaths. 137 He reviewed the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS) and determined that, over a twelve-year period (1988-1999), eighteen children had fallen from playground equipment and subsequently died. 138 Plunkett's data, however, suffer from several limitations. First, Plunkett's study is not a true systematic review of the short-fall literature. Second, the NEISS database Plunkett reviewed suffers from selectivity bias. 139 Finally, Plunkett's reported deaths are inaccurate. 140 The Chadwick et al. systematic review of the short-fall literature constitutes level 2a evidence on the CEBM scale, whereas Plunkett's *226 study constitutes level 3b or 4 evidence. B. Other Accident Literature In addition to the short-fall literature, several well-designed prospective studies comparing accidents and abuse cases have identified clinical variables that can discriminate accidents from abuse case with a high degree of statistical significance. The strength of these studies lies in their ability to validate prior exploratory studies with good reference standards, thus constituting level 1b evidence on the CEBM scale. For example, Vinchon et al.'s 2010 prospective series of eighty-four patients who sustained injuries from either witnessed accidents (N=39) or confessed inflicted head injury (N=45-- obtained from judicial sources) determined the specificity and positive predictive value of severe RHs for abusive injury to be 97% and 96%, respectively. 141 This validated Vinchon et al.'s and Bechtel et al.'s prior exploratory prospective studies in 2005 and 2004, respectively, where the authors found high statistical significance and specificity of more severe RHs for abuse. 142 In enhancing prior research efforts, Hymel et al. developed a national, multi-site research collaborative, Pediatric Brain Injury Research Network (PediBIRN), that is dedicated to conducting rigorous clinical research on pediatric traumatic brain injury. 143 The strengths of the studies produced by this collaboration include the prospective multicenter design, the breadth and depth of data capture, and the a priori application of criteria for abusive and non-abusive causes (criteria that are specifically designed to © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 8 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... minimize circular reasoning and inherent biases). 144 In 2010, the PediBIRN *227 group published the results of its prospective multicenter study that examined the diagnostic, prognostic, and forensic significance of depth of intracranial injury in accidental and non-accidental cases. 145 After thoroughly reviewing data on fifty-four children less than three years old at nine sites, the authors found that children “with sub-cortical injuries (i.e., injuries deeper in the brain) more frequently had been abused” (odds ratio [OR]: 35.6; P-value <0.001) than had suffered accidents. 146 Although this particular study constitutes level 2b evidence on the CEBM scale, its rigorous methodology has provided the foundation for the development of emerging higher levels of evidence--clinical prediction rules. 147 Finally, in 2009, Maguire et al. completed a systematic review of the world's medical literature and identified clinical features that differentiate accidental from non-accidental head injury in child-ren. 148 The authors conducted “[an] all-language literature search of [twenty] electronic databases, websites, references, and bibliographies from 1970-2008.” 149 Using over 100 keyword combinations, this yielded 320 studies for review. 150 Applying strict inclusion and exclusion criteria, 151 the authors determined that fourteen studies were appropriate for inclusion, which represented 1655 children: 779 with inflicted brain injury (iBI) and 876 with non-inflicted brain injury (niBI). 152 The authors utilized multi-level logistic regression analysis *228 to arrive at positive predictive values and odds ratios for various clinical features. 153 As a result, the authors found that “apnoea appears to be a critical distinguishing feature (PPV for abuse 93%, OR 17.06).” 154 This means that, in the comparative diagnostic subset of accidental versus non-accidental injury, a child who arrives at the hospital not breathing is seventeen times more likely to have been abused. Likewise, the authors found retinal hemorrhages “were strongly associated” with inflicted brain injury, with a PPV of 71% and an OR of 3.5. 155 The authors stated, “[a] child with an intracranial injury who has co-existent retinal haemorrhages [sic] is significantly more likely to have iBI than niBI.” 156 The authors concluded, “[t]his review is the largest of its kind, and offers for the first time a valid statistical probability of iBI when certain key features are present (e.g., retinal haemorrhage).” 157 Maguire et al.'s systematic review comprises level 2a evidence on the CEBM scale. C. Conclusion The scientific literature on pediatric accidental injury is robust, sound, and constantly improving. No longer is the isolated case report 158 (level 4 evidence) or the poorly designed case series 159 (level 4 *229 evidence) a sufficient basis for scientific conclusions. Currently, there is level 1b and 2a evidence supporting clinicians in the distinction of abusive from accidental injury when certain clinical features, such as apnea or extensive/severe retinal hemorrhages, are present. And physicians continue to build upon these data, with hopes of soon attaining the highest level of evidence attainable--level 1a. In a recent analysis, Maguire et al. estimated the probability of AHT based on six clinical features, reporting that combinations of the above factors are even more predictive. 160 For example, the authors determined that a child (less than three years old) with a subdural hematoma plus any three of the following factors: apnea; retinal hemorrhage; rib, skull, or long-bone fractures; seizures; or head or neck bruising; had a positive predictive value for AHT of greater than 85% and an odds ratio of greater than 100. 161 Armed with such data and analysis, physicians today can confidently conclude that certain infants' injuries are the result of intentional injury and are not the result of accident. And they do so on the basis of the highest quality medical evidence. IV. Bleeding Disorders Bleeding disorders may be proposed as the underlying cause for clinical findings in cases of suspected abusive head trauma (AHT). Unlike some hypothesized “mimics” of AHT, 162 bleeding disorders are known causes of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) and retinal hemorrhage and are a heterogeneous group of conditions that vary in etiology, presenting symptoms, and © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 9 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... prevalence. 163 All three of these *230 descriptive characteristics must be considered when evaluating the potential for a bleeding disorder to be the cause of an ICH. It is important to remember that: 1) only certain bleeding disorders may cause findings that may be confused with AHT; 2) most bleeding disorders are rare; 3) the more common bleeding disorders typically are mild; and 4) ICH resulting from bleeding disorders is a rare complication of the more severe diseases. 164 The probability of a rare disorder causing an even rarer manifestation (i.e., ICH) is the main scientific consideration when there is concern for a potential bleeding disorder in a young child with an ICH and a history of no or minimal trauma. 165 A. Causes (Etiologies) of Bleeding Disorders Bleeding disorders may be congenital (inherent to the genetic makeup of an individual) or acquired. Congenital bleeding disorders may cause symptoms from the time prior to birth to anytime throughout a person's lifetime. 166 Bleeding symptoms may occur at any time and, depending on the severity of the bleeding disorder, may be asymptomatic (without symptoms) for long periods of time. 167 Acquired bleeding disorders are the result of a condition that is not permanently engendered in a person. 168 As with congenital bleeding disorders, symptoms may present at variable times during one's life, and their severity and duration are dependent upon the specific condition. 169 *231 1. Congenital Bleeding Disorders Examples of congenital bleeding disorders include hemophilia and von Willebrand disease (VWD). There are many other congenital bleeding disorders, 170 and significant variability exists in the prevalence and presenting symptoms of each of the bleeding disorders, such that each disorder must be considered individually. A discussion of the specific congenital bleeding disorders is outside of the purpose and scope of this review. 171 2. Acquired Bleeding Disorders Acquired bleeding disorders may occur at any age, may be isolated, or may occur due to medications, medical illnesses/ conditions, or trauma. 172 Specific examples include immune throm bocytopenic purpura (ITP), 173 disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), 174 vitamin K deficiency bleeding (VKDB), 175 and liver coagulopathy. 176 Often these acquired bleeding disorders are transient, but *232 some may persist. They either affect platelet number or function or result in a coagulation factor deficiency. In large part, a clinician can identify acquired causes of bleeding by taking a careful history, performing a detailed physical examination, and ordering the appropriate laboratory tests. For example, a variety of medications can lead to platelet dysfunction (e.g., non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, sodium valproate). 177 A careful medication history can evaluate for this potential. 178 Other acquired bleeding disorders, such as ITP or other causes of thrombocytopenia (low platelet count), can be readily diagnosed on the basis of a lab test--a complete blood count (which manifests the low platelet count). 179 DIC is evident on other laboratory testing--a prolonged prothrombin time (PT), a prolonged partial thromboplastin time (PTT), decreased fibrinogen level, and elevated D-Dimer levels. 180 In VKDB, laboratory tests show a prolonged PT and a normal PTT. 181 When testing for the specific coagulation factors that are dependent on Vitamin K (factors II, VII, IX, and X), they are markedly decreased. 182 If findings and initial laboratory testing is concerning for VKDB, but vitamin K treatment has already been provided, measurement of proteins induced by vitamin K absence can confirm the diagnosis. 183 © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 10 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... The prevalence of ICH in people with acquired bleeding disorders is variable but very low. For example, the prevalence of ICH in patients *233 with idiopathic ITP is <1%. 184 In VKDB, administration of oral vitamin K prophylaxis reduces the incidence of late VKDB from 4.4-10.5/100,000 live births to 1.5-6.4/100,000 live births, and all patients with VKDB do not have ICH. 185 B. Symptoms of Bleeding Disorders Although bleeding disorders, by definition, cause bleeding, the manifestations of bleeding disorders vary based upon location on the body, frequency, and severity. Some bleeding disorders, such as the mild platelet abnormalities and VWD, generally cause mild symptoms, such as mouth and/or nose bleeding or mild skin bruising. 186 Often, mild platelet abnormalities and VWD cause no symptoms at all. 187 More severe conditions, such as some types of hemophilia, often cause severe joint bleeding and may cause ICH. 188 When young children present with ICH and no history of trauma or a history of a minor trauma, one must consider a bleeding disorder as the underlying cause. ICH occurs more frequently in some bleeding disorders, very rarely in others, and either exceedingly rarely or not at all in other bleeding disorders. 189 As will be discussed below, the prevalence of each bleeding disorder and the prevalence of ICH within the population of people with that specific bleeding disorder may be used to identify a testing scheme to evaluate for bleeding disorders as a cause of ICH. However, prior to using the existing *234 data to construct an evidence-based approach to evaluating for bleeding disorders in the setting of alleged AHT, it is necessary to first examine the data for validity and applicability. C. Sources of Data Nearly all of the existing data regarding bleeding disorders and ICH have been culled from large databases, such as the Universal Data Collection (UDC) database project of the Centers for Disease Control. 190 The UDC was established in 1997 to monitor the safety of the blood supply in the United States and to track the incidence and consequences of joint complications in patients with bleeding disorders. 191 The UDC and other similar databases were not constructed to guide forensic evaluations regarding possible AHT and bleeding disorders. As a result, the details of the bleeding symptoms in the databases have not been collected in a fashion that would be preferable for forensic purposes. 192 For example, specifics such as trauma history, location of ICH (subarachnoid/subdural, etc.), and external evidence of trauma have not been collected. However, this does not eliminate the utility of the UDC and other databases in forensic consideration. The existing scientific literature generated from these hematology databases is useful in determining the prevalence of particular bleeding disorders in our population and the probability of a particular bleeding disorder to cause ICH in general. Even in the absence of large studies evaluating the forensic implications of *235 bleeding disorders, the existing literature of case series and case reports is valuable. 193 In the largest study examining non-accidental injury and bleeding disorders, Jackson et al. documented presentations of bleeding disorders over a ten-year period at a large pediatric center. 194 After excluding patients diagnosed at birth with a bleeding disorder, 15.3% of all children with bleeding disorders presented in a manner that may be confused with abuse, including genital and buttock bruising, bruising in immobile infants, and ICH. 195 Five children in the study were involved with the legal or child protection system due to bleeding/bruising. 196 The authors concluded that bleeding disorders can present in a manner that is “clinically indistinguishable from abuse.” 197 However, of note, only two children over the study's ten-year interval presented with ICH, both of whom were older than one year of age, had obvious evidence of impact (skull fractures), and VWD. 198 The authors were unable to determine if the © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 11 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... findings in these cases were due to abuse or accidental impact. 199 There were no cases of spontaneous ICH (with no evidence of impact) in the study. 200 This suggests that spontaneous ICH due to a bleeding disorder is an extremely rare event. *236 D. Testing for and Probability of Bleeding Disorders in the Setting of ICH Studies have evaluated the use of screening questions and family history in the detection of bleeding disorders. 201 Negative screens (i.e., the family or child has no history of easy bleeding/bruising) are not effective ways of ruling out a bleeding disorder. 202 Similarly, statements such as “my child bruises easily” or a family history of “easy bruising” do not rule out abuse as a cause of bleeding in a child. 203 Thus, when clinicians consider the potential need for testing for bleeding disorders, in the absence of a known, named bleeding disorder in the child or family, the family history of bleeding/ bruising is of limited use. When ordering laboratory tests for clinical or forensic reasons, clinicians must ask, “What is the potential for a positive test result?” and “How is the result of this test going to change my forensic impression or patient management?” If the potential for a positive test result is microscopically small or if a positive test result does not change the clinical impression/diagnosis, there is very little value in sending the test. For instance, the prevalence of Factor 2 (pro-thrombin) deficiency (one per one million people) and frequency of ICH within the population of people with Factor 2 (prothrombin) deficiency (11%) make testing for Factor 2 (prothrombin) deficiency of extremely low value on cases of suspected AHT. 204 Because there is a remote potential for a bleeding disorder presenting as ICH, clinicians often consider evaluating for such in cases of possible AHT. 205 However, when clinically assessing a particular child, the entire set of clinical and historical findings must be *237 considered together. 206 If a child has other findings that are highly suggestive of violent trauma (e.g., fractures) or other findings that are unrelated to bleeding disorders, it is reasonable to exclude testing for bleeding disorders. 207 An evaluation for bleeding disorders is generally performed if a child has ICH with no readily apparent explanation or with no other evidence strongly suggesting abuse (e.g., unexplained fractures, witnessed abuse, patterned bruising) as this may rarely be the presenting manifestation of a bleeding disorder. 208 A basic tenet of practicing evidenced-based medicine is that actual evidence rather than hypotheses can be used to guide clinical decision making. 209 Hypothetical considerations without proven cause-effect linkage to ICH, such as vaccines 210 and “choking episodes,” 211 cannot be considered evidence-based medicine. Thus, testing for histamine levels or vitamin C levels based on a hypothesis that vaccines induce ICH by altering levels of those factors is not grounded in scientific, evidence-based practice. 212 Such hypotheses should be tested by rigorous prospective research prior to being offered as an explanation for ICH in a legal setting. When deciding on which tests to order to evaluate for a bleeding disorder as the cause of ICH in a young child, clinicians can access the existing data on the prevalence of specific bleeding disorders and the prevalence of ICH due to those specific bleeding disorders. If the prevalence of a condition and the frequency of a particular presentation of that condition are known, a physician can construct the probability of that specific condition (bleeding disorder) resulting in the specific presentation (ICH): *238 PTP(B) = P(A) x P(B|A) 213 For example, severe VWD is extremely rare, occurring at an upper-limit estimated population prevalence of 1 per 300,000 people. 214 Up to four percent of people with severe VWD initially present with a “head bleed,” including both ICH and extracranial (scalp or facial) bleeding. 215 Thus, the estimated probability that a person will get an ICH due to severe VWD is: (Prevalence of severe VWD) x (Prevalence of ICH in severe VWD) © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 12 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... (1/300,000) x (0.04) = 1/7.5 million The calculated probability, in this instance, is actually an overestimate of severe VWD causing subdural hemorrhage (SDH) because the calculated probability pertains to not only all ICH (SDH, subarachnoid hemorrhages, and epidural hematomas and parenchymal bleeding 216 ), but scalp and facial bleeding as well. Additionally, spontaneous SDH (i.e., those not resulting from trauma) is a subset of all SDHs. Thus, it is reasonable for a clinician to conclude that the chances a young child will suffer SDH (either spontaneously or as a result of trauma) from a previously undiagnosed, severe VWD are exceedingly small. Similar probabilities can be calculated for any bleeding disorder in which: 1) the prevalence of the condition is known and 2) the *239 prevalence of ICH within the condition is known (See Table 1, infra). Table 2: Probabilities for Congenital Coagulopathies to Cause ICH a,b 217 TABULAR OR GRAPHIC MATERIAL SET FORTH AT THIS POINT IS NOT DISPLAYABLE *240 a The probability of having a specific bleeding disorder increases in the setting of a family history of that specific-named bleeding disorder or if the patient is from an ethnicity in which a specific bleeding disorder is more common (e.g., Ashkenazi Jewish people and factor XI deficiency). b “Probability” indicates the probability that an individual in the general population would have the following specific coagulopathy causing an intracranial hemorrhage. For instance, the two most common severe congenital bleeding disorders, Factor 8 and Factor 9 deficiencies (two forms of hemo-philia), have probabilities for ICH of 1 per 50,000 males and 1 per 200,000 males, respectively. 218 The probability of Factor 13 deficiency causing an ICH is 1 per 6 million, largely due to the rarity of Factor 13 deficiency. 219 This means that, in the population in general, a single person's risk of having an ICH due to Factor 13 deficiency is 1 in 6 million. Ordering tests to evaluate for every bleeding disorder is generally impractical due to the statistical implausibility of many of the bleeding disorders causing ICH. In fact, many conditions have a probability of causing ICH so low as to preclude calculation. However, these probabilities can be used to identify the need for tests to be ordered if a child's findings may reasonably be caused by a bleeding disorder. Thus, physicians may order tests with higher (relatively speaking) probabilities, such as evaluating for conditions that have a probability higher than or equal to 1 in 5 million, for instance. If negative test results are obtained, the post-test probability of one of the tested bleeding disorders is essentially zero. E. Special Considerations Two bleeding disorders have particular potential to create confusion or pose a diagnostic challenge in the evaluation of possible *241 AHT--von Willebrand disease and mild platelet disorders. 1. Von Willebrand Disease (VWD) VWD is the most common congenital bleeding disorder. 220 It most commonly presents with mild to moderate bleeding from the nose or mouth, bruising, or heavy bleeding during a woman's menstrual period. 221 It is generally classified in terms of von Willebrand factor (VWF) levels and the type of functional defect affecting the VWF protein. 222 Type 1 disease results from an absolute decrease in the VWF protein and is the most common. 223 Type 3 is characterized by nearly absent levels of VWF as well as low factor 8 and is the most severe version of VWD. 224 There are also a number of qualitative abnormalities © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 13 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... resulting in variable bleeding manifest-ations (types 2A, 2B, 2M, and 2N). 225 Testing for VWD can be complicated and often requires consultation with a pediatric hematologist. 226 The current prevalence of VWD is difficult to determine, 227 as recent consensus changes have resulted in more specific diagnostic criteria. 228 Per the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, the *242 most recent criteria for diagnosis requires VWF levels <30% (normal range 50-200%), resulting in fewer individuals with levels below the normal range meeting diagnostic criteria. 229 Current estimates indicate that low VWF levels may occur in up to 1% of the U.S. population. 230 However, since many persons with VWD do not manifest symptoms, the prevalence of symptomatic persons with VWD is currently best estimated at 23-113 per million or 0.0023-0.01% of the U.S. population. 231 Additionally, and more importantly, ICH as the presenting finding of severe VWD is extremely rare (upper limit of probability of 1 per 7.5 million people). 232 Mild VWD is much more common than severe VWD, but the prevalence of ICH within people with mild VWD is unknown. 233 Because low VWF levels are relatively common, it is certain that testing for VWD will be positive in a small percentage of children with findings concerning for AHT. In nearly all cases, where VWD is mild, it often does not cause any symptoms until a hemostatic challenge, like the removal of teeth. 234 A review of the peer-reviewed literature in humans on ICH due to VWD reveals four published cases of spontaneous ICH in adults. 235 None of these cases involved subdural hemorrhage. 236 The peer-reviewed medical literature evaluating mild trauma and VWD in humans contains only a few published case reports and case series of VWD complicating mild or more severe trauma in mobile children or *243 adults. 237 Only one of these cases involved subdural hemorrhage--that case being a four-year-old child who suffered an impact to the head. 238 There are currently no scientific data to support the hypothesis that VWD is a cause of spontaneous ICH in young, immobile children. And the best current scientific literature supports the conclusion that VWD may very rarely contribute to bleeding complications in mild head trauma. The clinician is posed with a diagnostic challenge when the historical and clinical findings are consistent with AHT, but laboratory testing shows low VWF levels. Some individuals have concluded that laboratory tests consistent with VWD essentially eliminate the consideration of AHT. 239 Others have been more balanced, stating that “[t]he significance of von Willebrand disease as a possible contributory factor in infants with subdural and retinal hemorrhages should be further addressed.” 240 The notion that laboratory testing consistent with VWD “rules out” AHT as a diagnosis is not only irrational (as the presence of VWD does not protect a child from AHT), but is also unsupported by the scientific literature. 241 *244 2. Mild Platelet Disorders Congenital platelet disorders can result in fewer platelets, abnormal function of platelets, or a combination of the two. 242 Mild congenital platelet disorders include Quebec platelet disorder, the MYH9 related disorders, Scott syndrome, Hermansky-Pudlak syndrome, Chediak-Higashi syndrome, and Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome. 243 Specific testing for platelet function is required to detect these disorders. 244 Most bleeding with these disorders is mild and manifests as excessive bruising or menorrhagia (heavy menstrual periods). 245 The exact prevalence of mild platelet disorders is unknown. 246 The probability of mild platelet disorders causing ICH is also unknown but is likely very low given the typical clinical manifestations. 247 Much like VWD, if specific testing is performed in children with suspected abusive ICH, it is likely that a small number of children will have laboratory results indicative of a mild platelet disorder. 248 In these cases, laboratory results do not rule out AHT, as there are currently no scientific data to support the hypothesis that mild platelet disorders have caused a spontaneous ICH. 249 © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 14 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... Rare severe congenital platelet disorders, such as Bernard-Soulier *245 syndrome (BSS) and Glanzmann thrombasthenia (GT) are known causes of ICH. 250 In both of these disorders, significant mucocutaneous bleeding and ICH have been reported, although ICH is rare, occurring in only 0.3-2% of patients with GT and even less in those with BSS. 251 Screening for these disorders may be accomplished using the Platelet Function Analyzer test (PFA-100). 252 F. Conclusion The evaluation of level of evidence for the probability that a bleeding disorder caused an ICH is a “symptom prevalence” question. The most recent Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine levels of evidence ratings 253 do not address these types of questions. However, the 2009 version of the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine does address “symptom prevalence” questions and is an appropriate evaluation tool. 254 There are a large number of studies evaluating the potential for ICH in patients with specific bleeding disorders with variable levels of evidence. Any studies based on prospective registries, such as the Universal Data Collection of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the North American Rare Bleeding Disorder Registry, qualify as “1b” according to the 2009 Oxford levels. 255 Most other studies on the subject are best classified as 1c and 2b. Any individual claiming that an ICH might be the result of a “bleeding disorder” should specify which bleeding dis-order is of concern, the general prevalence of that bleeding disorder *246 in the population, and the probability that that specific bleeding disorder causes ICH. V. Biomechanics Classical mechanics began with the work of Isaac Newton in the late 1600s. 256 Beginning with a few simple equations, engineers can predict how many objects will respond to various forces. 257 One branch of mechanics, biomechanics, concerns itself with “the scientific study of mechanics in biological systems.” 258 In contrast to the observational, clinical studies noted in the accidents section above, biomechanics is fundamentally an experimental discipline. Biomechanical engineers, like all responsible scientists, are unwilling to injure living children in the course of an experiment. Instead, engineers employ a number of approximations, ranging from animals to constructed “crash test dummies” to finite element analysis (FEA). Each of these techniques has some value, and none is perfect. The best scientific insight results from a careful consideration of the strengths and limitations of all available information. Traumatic brain injury can result from either inertial (a rapid head acceleration-deceleration that produces injurious brain deformation) or contact (where impact produces local brain deformations) mechanisms. 259 Although rapid brain acceleration can proceed in either linear or rotational directions, it is actually high angular accelerations and velocity that are often correlated with intracranial hemorrhage and severe brain injury. 260 *247 Traditionally, biomechanical analysis of head injury in infants and children assumed that infants and young children responded like small adults. 261 Using an engineering approach called “dimensional analysis,” it was assumed that critical inertial loading conditions for severe brain injuries (such as SDHs or diffuse axonal injury) could be scaled from adults to infants based solely upon brain mass. 262 However, recent biomechanical studies 263 have shown what pediatricians have long argued --that children are not small adults. Multiple differences--in tissue composition, brain and skull properties, and brain vulnerability--between adults and children have prompted scientists to interpret biomechanical studies that utilize scaling approaches with caution. 264 © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 15 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... The biomechanics of AHT/SBS is a comprehensive and complex topic. A few biomechanical questions are frequently encountered in AHT/SBS. We will summarize the scientific literature pertinent to those questions. For a more comprehensive discussion of the topic, we refer the reader to additional literature. 265 Question 1: Does the biomechanical literature suggest that shaking alone cannot cause SDH or serious brain injury in children? As Narang mentioned in his first article, when traumatic, SDHs are caused by rupture of the bridging veins in the brain. 266 Early biomechanical work by Gennarelli and Thibault in primates revealed a strong association of SDH with elongation of the bridging veins beyond their strain tolerances when the primate brains moved relative to their skulls during sudden acceleration-deceleration *248 events. 267 In 1987, Duhaime et al. published a biomechanical study of shaken baby syndrome in which the authors shook a constructed model infant. 268 Duhaime suggested that impact was necessary to cause SDH because shaking alone achieved maximum velocities and accelerations that were well below the thresholds for SDH (that were scaled from adult primates) and impact exceeded those thresholds. 269 This study created a tide of misplaced sentiment that shaking alone could not cause significant injury in infants and children. 270 Scientific critique of the Duhaime study has highlighted the importance of biofidelity in doll models. Cory and Jones 271 found that making just minimal adjustments to Duhaime's model (such as altering the center of gravity in the head) created a model in which manual shaking did exceed injury thresholds in eight out of ten trials. 272 Wolfson et al.'s FEM study determined that slight modifications of the stiffness and hinge used in the model's neck dramatically altered the rotational accelerations and velocities achieved. 273 These studies underscore the principle that even the slightest variation in the experimental model can result in aberrant data. Further studies have shown that other factors not considered in Duhaime's study also affect the likelihood of injury. Eucker showed that the direction of head rotation (back and forth versus side to *249 side.) affects likelihood of injury. 274 Prins et al. suggested that both adult and infant brains are increasingly susceptible to repetitive injury (i.e., implying a cumulative effect of injury). 275 Finally, Kochanek and colleagues have mounted evidence that biochemical and metabolic responses to brain injury are significantly different in the young infant compared to the older child or adult. 276 In 2003, Prange et al. performed an updated version of Duhaime's study. 277 Like Duhaime's prior study, Prange et al. compared biomechanical forces achieved from shaking and shaking with impact (which ended with forceful impact onto a rigid or padded surface but without throwing the model). 278 The authors concluded that “[v]igorous shakes of this infant model produced rotational responses similar to those resulting from minor falls, but inflicted impacts produced responses that were significantly higher than even a 1.5-meter fall onto concrete.” 279 Contrasting Duhaime's and Prange's findings, a host of biomechanical studies have yielded different conclusions. In an FEM study by Roth et al., the authors questioned whether angular acceleration--the value for which Duhaime and Prange compared injury thresholds--could accurately predict injury. 280 Roth et al. re-created the injury events in the Prange study using a computational *250 model. 281 In spite of dramatic differences in rotational acceleration, shaking and impact created similar strain on the bridging veins. 282 Because shaking and impact cause similar strains on the bridging veins, it is not unreasonable to expect similar injuries to result. 283 A valuable FEM study by Morison examined the protective effect of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) on intracranial injury. 284 The CSF is an important but difficult to model structure that is notably absent from Duhaime's and Prange's models. 285 Morison © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 16 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... demonstrated that the CSF dampens brain acceleration to 0.13-1.00% of translational skull acceleration but does not protect the brain from rotational acceleration. 286 Duhaime's and Prange's studies did not incorporate or study Morison's assertion that cerebrospinal fluid protects the brain against a short fall but not from shaking. Finally, Finnie et al. studied shaking in actual living animals. 287 The authors grasped 7-10-day-old lambs under the axilla and vigorously shook them. 288 The lamb model was selected principally because it has a relatively large gyrencephalic brain, large head, and weak neck muscles resembling a human infant. 289 No lamb suffered *251 impact to the head. 290 Each lamb was shaken ten times for thirty seconds. 291 This methodology was based upon perpetrator confessions that indicate that repeated and violent shaking is common in AHT. 292 Two of the seven lambs shaken in this manner suffered small SDHs, 293 and two lambs had minor retinal hemorrhages. 294 Shaken lambs showed significantly more damage on microscopic examination compared to lambs that were not shaken. 295 To honestly answer the question whether shaking alone can cause SDH and/or severe brain injury, the answer must assess all of the studies mentioned above, not just the Duhaime study of 1987. As discussed above, numerous authors have identified variables not considered by Duhaime that are important determinants of injury. Perhaps the most pointed criticism of these anthropometric model studies for determining injuries from shaking comes from the Prange paper itself: These injury projections should be interpreted with caution, because differences in species, age, material properties, geometry, and direction make scaling experimental angular acceleration and velocity measurements to infants problematic when based on differences in brain mass alone. To avoid the limitations of using scaled loads from animal and cadaver experiments to investigate real life events, case studies of minor falls in infants were also used to examine injuries that occur as a result of falling from different heights. Unfortunately, these falls are rarely witnessed, load measurements of the event are lacking, contact surface information is rarely given, and the population studied generally includes a broad age range, rather than just newborns. 296 In conclusion, in pediatric head injury, it must be remembered *252 that there are no human data on load tolerances 297 causing SDHs. What has been presented above is that the biomechanical literature does not offer a definitive “yes” or “no” answer to the widely debated question of whether shaking alone can cause SDHs. Some literature demonstrates it can occur, while other literature disputes it. It is clear, however, that continued assertion of the principle--that biomechanics clearly demonstrates that SDHs and/or serious brain injury cannot result from shaking--is disingenuous and scientifically irresponsible. Question 2: Does biomechanics show that injurious shaking would necessarily cause catastrophic neck injury? A 2005 paper by Bandak is widely cited as additional biomechanical evidence supporting the proposition that shaking alone cannot cause the injuries noted in AHT. 298 In that paper, Bandak proposed that shaking sufficient to cause brain injury would necessitate devastating injuries to the cervical spine. 299 Bandak's paper is purely analytic; meaning, rather than conducting original experiments, the purpose of the study was to reinterpret previously published data. 300 Reinterpretation of published data is a valid study design and is the design of several of the studies discussed previously. Bandak relied upon Jenny's 301 reports of rotational acceleration and Duhaime's 302 report of rotational velocities from adults shaking a model infant. 303 Using these data, Bandak computed the amount of *253 force experienced by the neck during these shaking events. 304 Bandak's computed forces greatly exceeded prior estimates of neck tensile strength in several animals. 305 © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 17 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... Because children with AHT are frequently not noted to have severe neck injuries, Bandak concluded that a reevaluation of AHT is needed. 306 This work has suffered much scientific criticism. Three of the four studies of neck tensile strength 307 do not involve humans and were presented with an explicit condition that they were preliminary and not to be used as references. 308 The remaining article 309 studied static rather than dynamic loads imposed by a shaking baby. 310 Other authors noted that neck injury is actually not as rare in AHT as Bandak asserted. 311 The most serious criticism, however, is that Bandak's computations are simply incorrect. Stated simply, Bandak's math is wrong. This is especially notable because a purely analytic study should be perfectly replicable. 312 When nine other scientists (including two well-reputed biomechanical engineers whom Bandak himself cited in his original paper) attempted to repeat Bandak's mathematics, they found numerous *254 gross errors. 313 When these scientists repeated the computations themselves, they found that the correct value for every single neck force was at least ten times lower than the values reported. 314 They determined that the corrected values do not exceed the threshold for neck injury. 315 Confirming Bandak's errors, a second group of scientists independently attempted to replicate Bandak's work and produced results identical to the first. 316 In his response, Bandak admitted that the reported values did not result from the equations published in the paper. 317 Bandak suggested instead that he “basically integrated the [AHT] accelerations over the time duration of shaking,” 318 without providing any of the equations, data, or assumptions necessary to replicate the work. 319 So, when asked to produce a single “worked example” demonstrating how the reported forces could be computed, Bandak failed to do so. Replication is a fundamental mechanism by which scientific validity is achieved. A work that cannot be replicated isn't bad science--it isn't science at all. Bandak's suggestion that shaking sufficient to cause injury would necessarily cause neck injury is a prime example of how invalid biomechanical data have been misused in court. 320 Further reliance upon these data or citation to this work should be avoided. Question 3: Has biomechanics shown that skull fractures are likely *255 to result from a short fall? As discussed in the Accident section above, short-distance falls are a common presenting history in children thought to be physically abused. 321 Several studies have demonstrated that the fetal and infant cranial bone increases in stiffness with age. 322 Coats and Margulies studied the material properties of infant cranial bone and suture in order to better predict the outcome of infant falls. 323 They obtained donated skull and suture materials from twenty-three fetuses and infants ranging from twenty-one weeks of gestation to thirteen months of age. 324 The authors measured the elastic modulus 325 in infants and found that the adult cranial bone modulus was thirty times higher (less deformable) than a one-month-old infant's. 326 A one year old's cranial bone modulus was eighteen times higher (less deformable) than a one-month-old infant's. 327 Additionally, the pediatric suture 328 deforms 30 times more than pediatric skull bone and 243 times more than adult bone before *256 rupture. 329 These large strains in the pediatric skull and suture may result in large-scale deformation upon impact and explain the diminished frequency of intracranial injury with short falls. Weber, a German pathologist, conducted two studies on infant cadavers in order to see how frequently fractures would occur on a variety of surfaces at changing table height. 330 In the first study, the cadavers of fifteen infants, no older than 8.2 months of age, were dropped (five each) from eighty-two centimeters (thirty-two inches) onto a stone-tile floor, a carpeted floor, and linoleum backed with foam flooring. 331 All of the infants had pathologic conditions that did not involve the head, and no skull © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 18 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... fractures existed before testing, neither on palpation nor on skull radiographs. 332 All the subjects made simultaneous contact with their back and parieto(side)-occipital(back) region of the head. 333 All fifteen of the cadavers sustained fractures and, in three cases, linear fractures crossed suture lines. 334 In his second paper, Weber tested an additional thirty-five cadavers with age ranges from newborn to 9.1 months at time of death. 335 Ten were dropped in the same manner and at the same height (thirty-two inches) onto a foam mat two centimeters thick and twenty-five were dropped onto a doubly folded blanket eight centimeters thick. 336 One of the ten (10%) infants dropped onto the rubber mat sustained parietal (side of the head) fractures that did not cross *257 sutures. 337 However, four out of twenty-five (16%) infants dropped onto the blanket sustained parietal skull fractures. 338 However, in contrast to Weber's data, Snyder et al. found different results. 339 Using newspaper clippings to screen for cases of free-falls in a six-state area, investigators were sent out to verify that the falls were, in fact, free-falls unimpeded from reaching the landing site by intervening obstacles and that the landing site had not changed since the time of the fall (e.g., construction or destruction of a building, change in soil or sand consistency due to significant rains). 340 One-hundred-ten free-fall cases were thoroughly investigated (age, biometrics, height of fall, landing surface, initial landing posture, and medical outcome). 341 Twelve cases were subsequently simulated in detail, using a computer simulation (MVMA 2-D Crash Victim Simulator, Version 3) that had been validated. 342 Seven of the twelve simulations involved head-first impacts; among these were five children who were younger than four years old and who fell 10'6” -34'2” . 343 All of these children had skull fractures, concussion, or both. 344 Upon examination of injuries as a function of impact surface for head-first fall cases, only one child who fell from a height of approximately twelve feet did not have a skull fracture. 345 Snyder concluded that the tolerances for skull fracture in infants and toddlers without pathology were between 4-10 feet (i.e., after a four-foot fall some would have a fracture, and after a ten-foot fall virtually all would have a skull fracture). 346 *258 Bertocci et al. used an anthropometric model to simulate a three-year-old child rolling off a twenty-seven-inch “bed” onto playground foam, carpet, linoleum, and wood. 347 Despite acknowledging “a paucity of injury criteria for children,” Bertocci concluded that the risk of a contact head injury (essentially a skull fracture) resulting from a short rolling fall is “low.” 348 Coats and Margulies conducted a finite element model (FEM) study using parametric simulations of occipital impacts to predict the likelihood of occipital or parietal skull fractures. 349 The authors found that elements arrays one standard deviation above the mean ultimate stress of occipital or parietal bone gave an 84.1% chance of occipital or parietal fracture. 350 At three standard deviations above the mean ultimate stress of the parietal bone, there was a 99.8% likelihood that the parietal bone would fracture. 351 They found such a condition at the equivalent of an eighty-two centimeter fall onto concrete and concluded that they had good validation with Weber (1984, 1985). 352 The accident literature quoted earlier also suggests that short falls can result in skull fractures but at rates far less than those *259 reported by Weber. 353 Thus, the biomechanical literature demonstrates that short falls can result in skull fractures. However, in spite of Weber's data, it would be unreasonable to suggest that all, or even a majority, of short falls cause skull fractures because multiple, well-designed clinical studies document that the vast majority of short falls do not result in a skull fracture. Question 4: Has biomechanics shown that SDHs are likely to result from a short fall? © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 19 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... The Prange study mentioned above simulated a child being dropped onto concrete, carpet, and a foam mattress. 354 For the drop experiments, the model was suspended at 0.3 meters (one foot), 0.9 meters (three feet), and 1.5 meters (five feet) over the landing surface. 355 The model was suspended with the head slightly below the remainder of the body, such that the head would strike the ground first. 356 The investigators concluded that 0.3-meter falls were unlikely to cause subdural hematomas but were unable to comment on the likelihood of injury in the 0.9-meter and 1.5-meter falls due to uncertainty about injury tolerances. 357 Thompson et al. simulated a twelve-month-old child falling feet first onto wood, carpet, playground foam, linoleum over wood, and linoleum over concrete. 358 They simulated falls from zero, nine, and twenty-nine inches, measured from the dummy's feet. 359 The authors concluded “the risk of severe head injury for a [twelve]-month-old *260 child in feet-first free falls across all tested surfaces and heights was low.” 360 A similar study by some of the same authors comparing falls onto wet linoleum to dry linoleum found similarly low risks for femur (large bone in the upper part of the leg) fracture or head injury. 361 In another study, Thompson et al. visited the homes of children who presented to the hospital for treatment after an accidental short fall. 362 The investigators specifically excluded cases where there was concern for possible child abuse. 363 Similar to prior studies, the experimenters found serious injuries to be rare and found no critical or life-threatening injuries. 364 Additionally, the surface the child fell on, pre-fall position, post-fall position, and motion prior to the fall all failed to demonstrate a statistically significant effect on injury severity resulting from the fall. 365 The short-fall reconstruction articles cited here represent a field in its infancy. They represent reconstructions of only a handful of seemingly limitless permutations of fall height, impact surface, initial position, fall biomechanics, and dummy characteristics that are involved in simulating a short fall. Ongoing and future research on the topic will most likely refine our current knowledge on the specific biomechanical parameters that will cause SDHs. Question 5: Does the biomechanics literature show that shaking can cause retinal hemorrhages? Rangarajan et al. constructed an FEM of an infant eye based on *261 head CTs of six normal, young children. 366 The model showed that rhythmic shaking significantly increases the stress on the retina. 367 The strongest forces were found at the posterior pole and the periphery. 368 Notably, as Narang discussed in his first article, this is where retinal hemorrhages in AHT are often found. 369 A similar model by Hans et al. demonstrated that force on the retina during a single shaking incident is about thirteen times that of a short fall with a head impact. 370 A four-cycle shaking event produces forces on the retina fifty times that of a short fall. 371 The forces on the retina exceeded the adhesive strength of adult monkey retinas for the shaking, but not the short fall simulations. 372 These results coincide with clinical studies suggesting that retinal hemorrhages are more common in inflicted than accidental trauma. Despite these findings, some learned biomechanical engineers suggest caution in interpreting these FEM studies. 373 They note that material properties, tissue-tissue interactions, and injury tolerances have not been measured or published for the pediatric eye. 374 They comment that, as with all biomechanical studies, a finite element analysis is only as good as its inputs and “inaccuracy of these inputs will yield fallacious outputs.” 375 *262 Animal studies have wrought further data on this topic. Coats et al. subjected 3-5-day-old piglets to a single, abrupt head rotation using a mechanical apparatus. 376 The piglets were kept alive for six hours, euthanized, and then autopsied. 377 Out © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 20 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... of fifty-one animals, four (eight percent) had retinal hemorrhages. 378 Similarly, as mentioned above, Finnie et al. noted minor retinal hemorrhages in two of seven sheep who were manually shaken. 379 In summary, as with biomechanical studies on short falls, the data are preliminary and limited but enlightening. The current state of knowledge is that biomechanical studies support clinical evidence that retinal hemorrhages can be caused by shaking. Conclusion Scientists have a peculiar fondness for data. Data are the recorded results of the most fundamental scientific skill: careful observation. Good science welcomes valid data of all kinds and from all disciplines--dropping test dummies in a lab, shaking immature animals, and counting injured children as they come through the ER. The wise scientist recognizes that all data are flawed in some way. However, data are not discarded upon the identification of a single flaw. They are assessed in totality while carefully balancing the limitations of those data and, consequently, according appropriate weight to the compilation of all data. The biomechanical literature discussed here is in its infancy and, in spite of its flaws, is useful and informative. For anyone to assert blanket superiority of one type of data over another type (such as clinical data) is not just scientifically irresponsible; it is scientifically arrogant. *263 VI. Hypoxia As noted earlier, one of the alternative explanations proposed for the findings seen in victims of AHT is “hypoxia.” Broadly, the term “hypoxia” is used to refer to a low level of oxygen in the body. 380 As a plastic condition, hypoxia's impact on the body depends upon a number of factors, 381 but broadly, it is important to think of hypoxia as both magnitude and duration. A small amount of hypoxia (slightly lower level of oxygen in the body) for a long duration has a very different effect on the body than profound hypoxia for a short duration. 382 It is important to recognize that “hypoxia” is not a single clinical or physiological entity and to speak of it as such is at best imprecise, and at worst simply wrong. This must be borne in mind as we unpack the role of “hypoxia” as a potential explanation for the finding seen in AHT. For the past decade, some authors have proposed that “thin film” SDH, retinal hemorrhages, and acute encephalopathy (brain injury) can all be explained as being caused by hypoxia alone absent trauma. 383 Evolving from the hypoxia theory have been two adjunct hypotheses: (1) “dysphagic” choking 384 and (2) cervical spine (neck) injury 385 as causative of hypoxia, and thus, of the findings seen in *264 AHT. We will now review the published reports and clinical data used to support these proposals, often referred to as the “Unified Theory.” It is important to note that in much of the literature used to support the hypoxia hypothesis, hypoxia as a clinical entity is undefined, making true analysis and comparison imprecise at best and misleading at worst. A. Geddes and the Unified Theory One of the cornerstones of the Hypoxia Hypothesis is a series of three papers by the British neuropathologist Dr. Jennian Geddes. 386 These have been often characterized as “Geddes 1,” 387 “Geddes 2,” 388 and “Geddes 3.” 389 Broadly, they are used to characterize the “Unified Theory” of hypoxia as the main (or sole) cause of the spectrum of findings associated with AHT. We will now describe them in some detail, as they are misunderstood by many and, thus, are often improperly cited. Geddes 1: © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 21 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... In 2000, Geddes and colleagues published a descriptive report on a non-sequential series of infant and child fatalities. 390 Given the paucity of prior published literature on the topic, the authors sought to analyze and report upon the neuropathologic findings in fifty-three cases of infants and children who had suffered inflicted brain injury. 391 They identified this cohort of fatalities using very similar *265 criteria, 392 which many other authors and investigators have in the past and still currently utilize. 393 The investigators were not blinded to the cause or manner of death, nor were they blinded to the neuropathologic findings. 394 All clinical and legal records were reviewed and all brains were similarly systematically sampled and stained. 395 Of these fifty-three subjects, thirty-seven were infants (under one year of age). 396 Half (n=27, 51%) had significant extracranial injuries e.g., burns, bruising, and/or fractures. 397 The majority (n=45, 85%) had signs of impact, including nineteen (36%) with skull fractures. 398 The authors reported that forty-four (81%) had subdural hemorrhage (SDH) with thirty-four being “thin film” (which was not defined by the authors). 399 Of the thirty-eight subjects in which a pathologist examined the eyes, the authors report that twenty-seven (71%) had retinal hemorrhages. 400 When compared with those without SDH, the authors reported that the presence of RH was statistically significantly *266 associated with the presence of SDH (p <0.001). 401 The authors reported that of the ten subjects without SDH, five did not have RH. 402 However, they also reported that they examined the retinas in only half of the subjects without SDH. 403 In eight subjects that the authors called “shaken-only” by virtue of the absence of findings of cranial impact, five (of the six with examined eyes) had RH and seven presented with collapse or respiratory arrest. 404 The authors reported the most common microscopic finding was “global neuronal hypoxiaischaemia,” seen in 84% of the infants and 63% of the older children. 405 Only three (6%) of the subjects had diffuse axonal injury. 406 The authors found no differences between the pathologies of subjects with and without evidence of impact. 407 The authors reported three significant clinical differences between infants and older children in their cohort: 1) infants had more apnea, 408 2) infants had fewer extracranial (outside the skull) injuries, 409 and 3) infants had less subscalpular bruising (evidence of head impact). 410 Geddes 2: In their second paper, the same authors selected the same thirty-seven infants from their previous cohort, to which they added fourteen *267 “control” infants for comparison. 411 The control group was a non-sequential group of infants who apparently died from non-abusive causes. 412 The authors reported on the intracranial histology 413 of these subjects and compared them with the infants utilized in their earlier cohort. 414 Again, the authors were blinded neither to the clinical information nor to the ultimate histopathologic findings. 415 The authors reported that, of the thirty-seven cases of abusive head trauma (AHT), twenty-five (68%) had evidence of #APP staining (a stain conventionally associated with traumatic injury) 416 in axons. 417 None of the control infants were reported to have #APP staining identified in their brains. 418 They also reported that twenty-nine (78%) of the cases of AHT had widespread hypoxic neuronal injury, while only one infant (7%) in the control group had histologic evidence of severe hypoxia. 419 As noted earlier, twenty-one infant cases of AHT (70% of those examined) had bilateral RH and nine cases did not have RH. 420 Seven cases were not examined. 421 The comparison group did not have its retinal findings described. 422 *268 The authors concluded that their “findings strongly suggest that severe traumatic axonal damage is a rarity in infant NAI unless there is considerable impact and that the diffuse brain damage responsible for loss of consciousness in the majority of cases is hypoxic rather than traumatic.” 423 © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 22 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... Geddes 3: Dr. Geddes and a similar set of co-authors then focused their attention to the dural covering of the brain. 424 They assembled fifty non-sequential fetal, neonatal, and infants who had non-traumatic deaths. 425 How this cohort was selected was not described. 426 To this cohort of cases, the authors compared three selected cases of AHT. 427 The authors did not describe how they chose these three infants, only that they were part of their earlier cohort. 428 Once again, the authors were blinded neither to the clinical information nor to the histologic findings. 429 Of the fifty subjects, forty-one (82%) were either fetal or neonatal deaths, with seventeen (34%) intrauterine deaths and sixteen (33%) perinatal (younger than seven days of life) deaths. 430 Of the fifty cases, twenty-six (52%) died from hypoxia, eight (16%) from infection (not defined) with severe hypoxia (not defined), and six (12%) from infection (not defined) without hypoxia. 431 Evaluation of the dural covering revealed only one subject (2%) *269 with a macroscopic (seen without a microscope) SDH. 432 This infant was a twenty-five-week gestation whose mother had chorioamnionitis (infected placenta) and died from sepsis (blood infection). 433 The authors reported that thirty-six (72%) of the remaining cases had intradural hemorrhage (IDH). 434 This is described as “bleeding inside the strips of dura.” 435 Retinas were not examined. 436 The authors hypothesized that the IDH noted in their sample was, in essence, a precursor of the larger SDH, 437 which would be typically associated with trauma. 438 Despite reporting that there was no statistically significant relationship between hypoxia and IDH, 439 the authors extrapolated that the microscopic IDH could be caused by hypoxia (alone or with other factors) and, thus, larger SDHs could be caused by hypoxia (with or without other factors) as well. 440 Furthermore, despite no physiological data, the authors theorized that “cerebral venous hypertension and congestion, arterial hypertension and brain swelling, coupled with immaturity and hypoxia related vascular fragility” contributed to a cascade of events leading to findings similar to those seen in AHT. 441 Additionally, without reporting ophthalmologic findings, they hypothesized that RHs occur from a similar mechanism. 442 B. Scientific Critique of the Unified Theory The series of papers by Geddes et al. attempted to address two *270 main themes. Geddes 1 and Geddes 2 attempted to describe the histopathologic findings in infants and children who are victims of AHT. They asserted that the histopathologic findings associated with AHT are similar to that seen in hypoxia-associated deaths. Geddes 3 attempted to describe how SDH could occur in the absence of trauma, utilizing hypoxia as the primary culprit. Clearly, the use of fetal and perinatal deaths obscures any conclusions on IDH or SDH because these are common findings at baseline (as outlined below). Given the unblinded nature of the Geddes 1 and Geddes 2 subjects, true interpretation of the implications of the results must be guarded. A recent study of higher and more rigorous methodology involved three parallel assessors who were blinded to the clinical information. 443 The subjects were 24 child fatalities from a variety of causes (including AHT). 444 The reviewers were asked to assess the histo-pathology (β−APP) and indicate any evidence of trauma. 445 These blinded and independent assessors rated five of the seven child homicides as “trauma” and fifteen of the seventeen controls as “non-trauma.” 446 This indicates that while not perfect, the histopathologic findings are exceedingly informative in determining the presence or absence of trauma. The authors rightly indicated that β−APP is clearly associated with trauma but urged caution saying, “the utility of © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 23 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... β−APP is quite powerful if not confounded by global hypoxicischemic injury, [and] ultimately, β−APP studies should be only one piece of information in the determination of cause and manner of death.” 447 Another notable aspect of the Geddes 1 and 2 papers is how their subjects were identified. The authors used inclusion criteria which included confession, conviction (with or without additional injuries), and discrepancy between findings and history provided (without adjudication). 448 Criteria like these have been utilized for decades by *271 many other researchers. 449 It is scientifically and logically inconsistent for some authors to criticize these other papers as having flawed inclusion methodology and yet cite the Geddes papers as “having important clinical implications” 450 or “landmark.” 451 If the conclusions of the Geddes papers are sound and meaningful, then so are the conclusions of other studies which utilize the same methodology. One cannot have it both ways. With regard to Geddes 3, there are two major obstacles in interpreting this paper. First, the authors present clinical information and data with significant imprecision. For example, indicating that an infant died from an “infection” or simply had “hypoxia” without clinical specificity leaves these terms vague and uninterpretable. “Infection” could be meningitis, 452 sepsis, 453 pneumonia, or pyelonephritis 454 ; all of which are distinctly different medical entities. “Hypoxia,” as noted above, is a heterogeneous clinical designation *272 that could be profound or trivial. Without clinical parameters, one cannot interpret the implications or potential signs or symptoms of the hypoxia. Second, none of the authors' findings are new. The presence of intradural hemorrhage 455 (IDH) associated with fetal demise has been known for decades, if not centuries. 456 The authors themselves, citing Chase, 457 note “early study documented intradural bleeding as a ‘constant finding’ in premature infants.” 458 In fact, one of the seminal monographs on birth-related injuries by Schwartz 459 from 1961 reports this history in the study of intracranial findings in the neonate. In summarizing the understanding of findings seen in fetuses and neonates, Schwartz writes “hemorrhage affects the dural reduplications (falx and tenotium) rather frequently.” 460 In this context, the Geddes et al. report of IDH in a cohort of mostly fetal and perinatal deaths is neither new nor illustrative. The presence of macroscopic, radiographically apparent SDH due to birth is also a well-described finding. An atlas by Cruveilhier in 1831 461 contains drawings of extensive meningeal hemorrhage over the hemispheres and, according to Schwartz, 462 Cruveilhier reported that these hemorrhages occurred in “at least one-third of neonatal *273 deaths.” This is similar to the frequency (~ 25%) with which SDH has been reported in the past decade on neuroimaging of healthy term neonates. 463 It is striking that Geddes et al. reported only one (2%) subject with gross SDH. This rate is statistically different from the one-third reported in the mid-1800s or the one-quarter reported in the 21st century (chi square, p=0.000 and p=0.001). 464 This calls into question whether the entire cohort used by Geddes et al. in Geddes 3 is systematically different and not representative at all of “typical cases,” either living or dead. Lastly, and most importantly, if this model of hypoxia as outlined by Geddes et al. is indeed a reasonable explanation for an SDH similar to the ones associated with AHT, why were they not seen in their own study? The only SDH reported was in a fetus that did not have hypoxia, but instead sepsis, reported as a cause of death. In their study, all infants with hypoxia identified as a factor in their death did not have an SDH. If this model had fidelity to a true underlying pathophysiologic process, it would be expected that the finding they are attempting to explain would be present in at least some of the cases; it was present in none. To truly assess whether hypoxia alone can result in SDH, one must use subjects that are more reflective of victims of AHT. 465 Infant and child victims of drowning or near drowning represent a nearly ideal population. The insult is pure hypoxia, the ages are *274 similar, the event is (sadly) common, the timing of the event is usually clear and not under dispute, and the outcome can be either fatal or non-fatal. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 24 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... Rafaat and colleagues reviewed all infants and children admitted to the Children's Hospital of San Diego over a seventeen-year period who were on a drowning registry. 466 Of the 961 infants or children identified, 156 had a head CT scan within twenty-four hours of admission (some having two scans). Sixty-one were under three years of age, which was similar to other epidemiologic studies on drowning injuries. Fifty-eight scans had an abnormality identified. None of the abnormal scans had any SDH noted. 467 Thus, out of 156 children with a spectrum of hypoxia insults and clinical outcomes (including forty-one deaths), none had an SDH on the head CT scan. This would mean that, at most, hypoxia causes SDH two percent of the time, but it may be as rare as never. 468 This result accorded with Taylor et al.'s radiologic study in 1985 469 and Byard's 470 and Hurley's 471 pathology studies in 2007 and 2010, respectively. Additionally, multiple lines of research have demonstrated that hypoxia is not a putative factor in causing RHs. Pitetti et al. prospectively studied 128 children less than two years of age who presented with apparent life threatening events (ALTEs) to determine the presence of *275 RHs. 472 Seventy-three of the 128 (57%) children received dilated fundoscopic exams. Only one child (1.4%) had RHs. 473 Upon further investigation, that case was determined to be a case of confessed abuse. Odom et al. prospectively examined the prevalence and character of RHs in patients in a pediatric ICU who had received at least one minute of chest compressions and survived. 474 After using strict exclusion criteria (such as excluding patients that had evidence of trauma, documented retinal hemorrhages before CPR, or suspicion of child abuse), Odom et al. found forty-three patients who met criteria for their study. Of the forty-three patients, “[t]he mean duration of chest compressions was 16.4 minutes . . . with 58% lasting between [one] and [ten] minutes.” 475 All patients survived, and the authors found small punctate retinal hemorrhages in only one patient (2.3%). No patient had severe RHs. Finally, numerous animal studies investigating the effect of hypoxia on the retina have failed to demonstrate RHs. 476 C. Adjunct Hypotheses There are at least two parallel hypotheses to hypoxia that have recently been proposed. These hypotheses are “dysphagia/ choking” or “coughing” and “neck injury.” The “dysphagia/choking” or “coughing” hypothesis proposes that when an infant or a child coughs or gags, there is an increase in cerebral (brain) vascular pressure. This increased pressure, in the presence of hypoxia, causes rupture of cerebral blood vessels. *276 Initially proposed by Talbert 477 in a non-peer-reviewed journal, Medical Hypotheses, it has since been promulgated by a few other authors. 478 Talbert has proposed that SDHs result from hypoxia and choking/coughing related to pertussis, 479 pyloric stenosis (stomach obstruction), 480 and/or gastroesophageal reflux with choking. 481 Talbert and Geddes subsequently attempted to replicate these physiologic conditions utilizing a mathematical software model of an infant. 482 Talbert and Geddes asserted that their model “has supported clinical observations, showing that the conditions necessary for subdural and retinal bleeding do occur in paroxysmal coughing, although it cannot prove that the bleeding is necessarily or even actually present clinically.” 483 The only other literature support for this hypothesis stems from a 2010 case report by Barnes and colleagues. 484 In that case, the authors report on a 4.5-month-old infant who was reportedly found by his father choking and blue. 485 The infant ultimately died after transportation to the Emergency Department and a short PICU course. 486 The findings included bilateral SDH, SAH, and acute rib *277 fractures. 487 While in the PICU, an eye examination revealed retinal hemorrhages throughout both eyes (no normal retina were identified in either eye) with 360° retinal detachment. 488 The authors reported that the child had not suffered AHT and that “choking, vomiting, or paroxysmal coughing (e.g., pertussis) may also result in SDH and RH.” 489 The authors concluded that the SDHs and RHs are “consistent with the history of infantile dysphagic choking as consistently provided by the caretaker.” 490 © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 25 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... With regard to neck injury, a recent paper by Matshes et al. set forth the hypothesis that hypoxia was indeed the underlying cause for SDHs and RHs, but that neck injury, as opposed to choking or coughing, was the preceding cause of the hypoxia. 491 In that paper, Matshes et al. reported on thirty-five non-sequential infant fatalities from three different medical examiners' offices. Twelve (34%) of these were “confirmed or suspected by history and circumstance to have been subjected to hyperextension and hyperflexion forces.” 492 The authors did not describe how the infants were selected or how the neck injury was determined. These twelve hyperflexion/hyperextension cases were compared with twenty-three control infants in whom neck hyperextension/hyperflexion was not identified or suspected. 493 The authors reported that all twelve hyperextension/ hyperflexion cases had nerve root hemorrhage (bleeding where the nerves of the neck enter the spinal cord), while only one of the twenty-three control infants had nerve root hemorrhage. 494 The authors indicated that the nerve root hemorrhage in the “shaking injury” infants was evidence that they sustained neck injuries that *278 interrupted the regulation of breathing, resulting in hypoxia. 495 They reported that all twelve “shaking injury” cases had SDH, while only two of the twenty-three control infants had SDH. 496 This was a statistically significant relationship comparing SDH amongst those with shaking as compared with those without shaking (chi square, p=0.000). The authors concluded that the twelve “shaking injury” cases had neck injuries that resulted in hypoxia and a subsequent SDH. 497 D. Scientific Critique of the Adjunct Hypotheses While Geddes and Talbert's computer model is interesting and, perhaps, hypothesis generating, no clinical or physiological data exist to support it. Geddes and Talbert themselves admit that the values utilized in their model are calculations and have not been demonstrated to be true. 498 The authors state that although their model demonstrates the pressure within the vessels surpasses the failure threshold, “[n]o research specifically addressing the question of stress failure of intracranial veins appears to have been reported in the literature.” 499 Furthermore, since its publication six years ago, there has been no subsequent confirmation or supporting research published. Finally, given the ubiquity of infant gastroesophageal reflux (spitting up), if choking or gagging on formula were truly a meaningful cause of death, SDH, or RH, would it not already have been identified and published in medical treatises and literature? Yet, this is not the case. With regard to the Barnes et al. case report, there are several ethical concerns with this case report that impact the scientific validity of the data presented. First, the “case report” bears striking similarities to a case (Zavian Thomas v. State of Texas) 500 in which each *279 of the co-authors were expert defense witnesses (a disclosure that was not made when published in the medical literature). Second, when confronted in the medical literature with the similarities between this “case report” and that case, 501 the authors chose not to clarify this issue. 502 Finally, there is concern that the “case report” did not present complete clinical information when published in the medical literature. 503 One condition Talbert himself highlighted as an example of how choking or coughing, in the face of hypoxia, could cause SDH and RH is pertussis (i.e., whooping cough). 504 Pertussis is an airway infection by the bacteria Bordetella pertussis which produces a toxin that causes extensive lung inflammation. 505 Prior to the advent of an effective vaccination for the bacteria, there were over 200,000 cases annually in the U.S., mostly in infants and children. 506 Tens of thousands of deaths occurred each year in the U.S., with over three-quarters of deaths being children younger than two years. 507 Despite the overwhelming burden of this disease, there have been only two cases of pertussis-associated SDH in over 100 years of published medical literature. The first, from 1885, 508 was a two-year old who died from reported pertussis. The second case was reported *280 in the American Academy of Pediatrics Red Book (infectious diseases manual). 509 The latter involved © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 26 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... a four-week old from 1968 who had pertussis and developed Staph aureus pneumonia. 510 The infant died as a complication of pneumonia brought on by pertussis. 511 As with gastroesophageal reflux, given the extensive history of pertussis, with hundreds of thousands of deaths in infants and children, if SDH or RH were a notable feature, would they not already be identified and reported in the medical literature? Yet, this is also not the case. Furthermore, in a well-designed prospective study, conducted over a four-year period, Curcoy et al. examined the eyes of thirty-five infants and young children admitted to their hospital with pertussis. 512 They found none with retinal hemorrhages. Similar findings were repeated in a prospective study by Goldman et al. 513 Finally, Herr et al. prospectively examined the eyes of 100 infants admitted to the Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh with forceful vomiting caused by pyloric stenosis. 514 They also found none with retinal hemorrhages. It appears that there are little scientific data to support the hypothesis that coughing or choking causes SDH or RH. With regard to the hypothesis of neck injury as a putative cause of SDHs or RHs, beyond the small numbers in the Matshes study, this paper has some significant methodological flaws that make meaningful interpretation impossible. The authors were not blinded to the neck findings, clinical information, or the pathologic findings. How neck hyperextension/hyperflexion was determined was not *281 described. 515 As neck hyperextension/hyperflexion was a key determinant in whether the infant was a case or control, it needed to be explained how it was actually determined. Finally, and very interestingly, four of the twelve (33%) cases of shaking injury did not have evidence of hypoxic encephalopathy yet still had SDH. 516 Clearly, Matshes' data more strongly supported shaking alone as the cause of SDH, rather than hypoxia. E. Conclusion From the clinical perspective, hypoxia is an important consideration. Hypoxia likely plays a role in some of the significant neuro-devastation seen in infants and children who are victims of any traumatic brain injury, not just AHT. However, when it comes to hypoxia causing SDH and RH, there simply is no clinical data or compelling research that supports this contention. If examined on the Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine rating scale, 517 the current level of evidence on the topic is of the lower kind--level 4. Comparatively, the level of evidence arguing against this hypothesis is stronger--level 2b. VII. The Daubert Analysis The determination of what is “reliable” expert testimony is a problem that has vexed jurists and legal scholars for hundreds of years. In one of the earlier historical legal writings on the subject matter, one eminent jurist and legal scholar, Judge Learned Hand, wrote: Having briefly considered the history of the present position of expert witnesses, the really practical question is whether it is the best way to use the information they can give. There are two things I wish to prove: first, that logically the expert is an anomaly; second, that from the legal *282 anomaly serious practical difficulties arise. 518 Although Judge Hand offered his brethren of the long robe a solution to the predicament of the expert witness, 519 this legal malady continues to ail jurisprudence to this very day. For scores, the common-law rule governing admissibility of scientific expert testimony was the Frye standard (or the “general acceptance” test). 520 With the enactment of the Federal Rules of Evidence (FRE) in 1975 and the Daubert court's subsequent countenance of them in many jurisdictions, the Frye standard came to pass. 521 FRE 702 states that expert witness testimony © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 27 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... shall be restricted to “scientific, technical, or other specialized knowledge” that is the “product of reliable principles and methodology.” 522 The Daubert court interpreted the adjective “scientific” to mean “a grounding in the methods and procedures of science” 523 and tethered “evidentiary reliability” to “scientific validity.” 524 From there, the Daubert court enunciated its renowned checklist of factors for assessing “scientific validity.” 525 Subsequent elaboration on the limits and meanings of FRE 702 in Joiner 526 and Kumho 527 have clarified that *283 the expert's methodology cannot be based solely upon “the ipse dixit of the expert” 528 and must be “properly applied” to the particular “facts of the case.” 529 In child abuse cases, the gatekeeper is confronted with primarily 530 three legal issues: 1) Does a physician's testimony constitute “scientific,” “technical,” or “other specialized knowledge?” 2) Is the physician's testimony the “product of reliable principles and methodology?” 3) Has the physician reliably applied those principles and methodology to the particular facts of the case? The first and second issues are generally addressable here; the third requires specific application to specific cases with specific fact patterns. A. Does a Physician's Testimony in Child Abuse Cases Constitute “Scientific,” “Technical,” or “Other Specialized Knowledge?” Although not the dispositive issue, it is not a superfluous matter to determine whether a physician's testimony in child abuse cases constitutes “scientific,” “technical,” or “other specialized knowledge.” Many legal scholars have noted that the adjective “scientific” connotes a greater reliability and even an “aura of infallibility.” 531 Although *284 empiric data from civil and criminal juries have not supported that “aura of infallibility” concern, empiric data have confirmed increased levels of juror attention to, critique of, and reliance upon appropriately presented scientific information. 532 One distinguished evidentiary scholar has asserted that physician testimony in support of shaken baby syndrome is “non-scientific,” stating that it is premised upon primarily “anecdotal” evidence. 533 That learned scholar goes on to assert that physician testimony against shaken baby syndrome is “scientific,” arguing that it attains “empiric” validity from Duhaime's biomechanical study in 1987. 534 Although the learned scholar makes no clarification as to what constitutes “anecdotal” evidence or whether there is evidence other than “anecdotal” evidence in support of shaken baby syndrome, he still concedes its admissibility under Daubert scrutiny. 535 The shortcomings of this “scientific” /“non-scientific” analysis will be discussed in further detail below. In defining “scientific,” the Daubert court stated that “the adjective ‘scientific’ implies a grounding in the methods and procedures of science.” 536 Generally speaking, a physician's testimony has been and is considered “scientific.” A physician's education includes the scientific basis of health and disease. 537 Rooted in a foundation of core science subjects, such as biology, physics, chemistry, and biochemistry, physicians are trained to apply those scientific *285 principles to the human body to better understand the physiology of the body and the pathology of disease that can affect it. Physicians are further trained to use scientific literature to compare alternative approaches to diagnosis and treatment. 538 In addition, physicians receive basic training on statistical analysis, often applying those principles to critically evaluate the medical literature. Courts that have confronted the issue have commented, “[c]linical diagnoses bear the marks of science.” 539 As the American Medical Association stated in its amicus brief in Daubert: © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 28 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... ‘Scientific knowledge’ is that body of knowledge that has been learned or developed in accordance with rigorous scientific methodology. The scientific method involves replicable, empirical testing of hypotheses . . . . Medical knowledge is one kind of scientific knowledge. It is acquired through the application of the scientific method to questions concerning the effects of various interventions on human health. 540 In fact, after considering whether the expert testimony of the physicians and biostatisticians involved in the case was “scientific, technical, or other specialized knowledge,” the Daubert court concluded that its analysis was “limited to the scientific context because that is the nature of the expertise offered here.” 541 Additionally, some courts and scholars have made a distinction between “hard” and “soft” sciences. 542 Because this distinction has no true correlation with reliability, we will not delve into further discussion of this issue. The natural extension of this analysis is to consider whether there are any features or characteristics of a physician's methodology in AHT/SBS cases that make it less scientific or non-scientific. The simple answer is no. The physician in AHT/SBS cases employs no *286 different methodology than the ER physician who assesses life or death scenarios in the emergency room, or than the neurosurgeon who assesses the cause and treatment of intracranial bleeds, or than the forensic pathologist who assesses the cause and manner of death in a variety of cases. All employ the “differential diagnosis” methodology, a methodology rooted in the scientific method. 543 Furthermore, if, as the Daubert court stated, the “scientific method” is a “process” of “generating hypotheses and testing them to see if they can be falsified,” 544 then it is without question that AHT/SBS has been subjected to the “scientific method.” As Narang pointed out in his prior article, physicians from all across the world have not only tested AHT/SBS from a variety of different perspectives but in a variety of different disciplines: biomechanics, pathology, radiology, ophthalmology, neurosurgery, and general pediatrics. 545 In its recent assessment of the forensic sciences, the National Research Council stated: Scientists continually observe, test, and modify the body of knowledge. Rather than claiming absolute truth, science approaches truth either through breakthrough discoveries or incrementally by testing theories repeatedly. 546 In fact, it is this very scientific methodology--this process for seeking greater scientific precision--that has prompted physicians to modify constrictive terminology, such as “shaken baby syndrome,” to more inclusive terminology, such as “abusive head trauma.” However, as child abuse physicians have utilized the science to be more precise, they have ironically been criticized for being “less scientific.” *287 547 Finally, the assertion that the evidence basis in support of AHT/SBS is “primarily anecdotal” is not only factually inaccurate but logically overly simplistic. “Anecdotal evidence” refers to evidence from anecdote, or more simply speaking, evidence that is primarily based upon personal experience and not subjected to the rigors of scientific analysis and scrutiny. 548 While certainly some evidence of shaking has been “anecdotal” (i.e., some admissions of shaking by caretakers to physicians), there are other forms of scientific evidence that support the “shaking” proposition. Recently, animal studies (on species that have highly similar head and neck anatomic structures to the human infant) have reproduced the very injuries--SDHs and RHs-- reported to be found as a result of shaking. 549 And as detailed above, there are biomechanical studies that support the “shaking” proposition. 550 More importantly, shaking accounts of perpetrators have not been merely anecdotally asserted and accepted but have been subjected to various aspects of scientific scrutiny, from examination of the specifics and repetitiveness of shaking events 551 to the correlation of those accounts to the presence or absence of physical trauma signs upon the body. 552 © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 29 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... However, and most importantly, the evidence for or against “shaking” is not merely a biomechanical question. The analysis does not simply end at the question of whether the estimated forces required to cause *288 SDHs have or have not been reproduced in biomechanical studies; there are clinical questions as well. Assuming, arguendo, that impact with a surface (soft or hard) is required to reach the estimated force thresholds of SDHs, then what? Because it is already well-established that many abusive head injuries do occur with impact against a soft surface, what next? If valid probabilistic judgments are to be made, further clinical questions must be answered--such as: With what frequency/commonality do the associative findings (SDHs, RHs, fractures, etc.) occur? What degree of reliability is there in those findings? How common are those findings in low impact/ simple short fall events? And are there other clinical variables that are strongly indicative of accidental or abusive events? The focus on solely the biomechanical question is itself a prime example of anchoring bias. 553 It is the assimilation and assessment of all types of evidence (as will be discussed in further detail herein below), not just biomechanical data, which leads to the most reasonable conclusion on this matter. Therefore, physician testimony in AHT/SBS cases is, and should be, considered “scientific.” B. Is the Physician's Testimony in AHT/SBS Cases the “Product of Reliable Principles and Methodology?” As mentioned above, determining what is “reliable methodology” in an expertise or a subject matter that is completely foreign to one's own is no simple task for anyone. Although the Daubert court listed a checklist of factors to consider in assessing “scientific reliability,” some courts have questioned the hard-and-fast application of those factors to clinical medicine. 554 While not a *289 perfect fit to clinical medicine, the Daubert factors are malleable to clinical medicine and help in the overall analysis of reliability. As the Daubert court ultimately stated, it is the “principles and methodology,” not the “conclusions they generate,” that are of paramount importance. 555 As Narang pointed out in his first part of this analysis, the methodology physicians employ in coming to the diagnosis of AHT is no different from the methodology physicians employ in arriving at any medical diagnosis-- it is the differential diagnosis methodology. 556 Legal scholars have expounded that, while the derivation of scientific principles involves inductive reasoning, in court, the explanation of the methodology follows a deductive, syllogistic format: Although scientific propositions are derived inductively, in the courtroom scientific testimony is ordinarily presented in a deductive, syllogistic format . . . . The major premise is a principle, procedure, or explanatory theory derived by the inductive, scientific technique. The physician applies that major premise to the facts of the case, namely, plaintiff's case history. The symptoms displayed by this specific plaintiff are the witness's minor premise. That case history might show that plaintiff has experienced symptoms A, B, and C. The result of applying the major to the minor premise is a conclusion, the witness's opinion on the merits of the case . . . . Hence, the ‘path to the witness's final opinion’ leads through the major and minor premises on which the expert relies. 557 Applying such to AHT/SBS cases, the “major premise” would be the scientific principles and evidence underlying the AHT/ SBS diagnosis. The “minor premise” would be the utilization of the differential diagnosis methodology to the specific facts of the AHT/SBS case. Thus, the analytic journey from here courses through three paths: 1) determining whether the scientific principles and evidence underlying the AHT/SBS diagnosis are in fact reliable, i.e., the “major *290 premise”; 2) defining what exactly the “differential diagnosis methodology” is; and 3) exploring whether the “differential diagnosis methodology” is, in general, a reliable methodology for applying the major premise to the specific facts of a case, i.e., the “minor premise.” The determination of whether a physician has validly applied the differential diagnosis methodology to a specific fact pattern is a mental endeavor a © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 30 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... particular gatekeeper must endure. Toward the conclusion of this article, we will discuss some tools available to the gatekeeper for confronting this challenge. 1. Are the scientific principles and evidence underlying the AHT/SBS diagnosis “reliable” (i.e., the “major premise”)? The Honorable Justice Stephen Breyer commented: The search is not a search for scientific precision. We cannot hope to investigate all the subtleties that characterize good scientific work. A judge is not a scientist, and a courtroom is not a scientific laboratory. But consider the remark made by the physicist Wolfgang Pauli. After a colleague asked whether a certain scientific paper was wrong, Pauli replied, ‘That paper isn't even good enough to be wrong!’ Our objective is to avoid legal decisions that reflect that paper's so-called science. The law must seek decisions that fall within the boundaries of scientifically sound knowledge. 558 Justice Breyer's statements are not merely colorful commentary or interesting narrative. They express the careful balance that is sought between two competing evidentiary goals--scientific soundness and a liberal, flexible approach to admissibility. They are notable in light of recent court decisions employing stricter standards of admissibility 559 and judicial surveys expressing confusion regarding *291 the proper criteria for admissibility. 560 And they are especially noteworthy because some legal scholars have fallaciously confounded standards for diagnostic sufficiency with standards for criminal conviction sufficiency. 561 So the question is simple: Is the science underlying AHT/SBS “junk science,” or science “that's not even good enough to be wrong?” One legal scholar made the following assertions that formulated the premise of Narang's first article: 1) That “the scientific underpinnings of SBS have crumbled over the past decade”; 562 2) That, “as evidence-based medicine . . . required doctors to derive their research from methods that are scientific and statistically rigorous,” doctors learned that the diagnosis was predicated upon “flawed science”; 563 and 3) That “as technology and scientific methodology advanced, researchers questioning the basis for SBS reached a critical mass” 564 (i.e., no longer a “general acceptance”). These assertions had been “reified” in prior 565 and subsequent legal commentary, 566 and unfortunately, found scientifically unscrutinizing *292 ears in three Supreme Court justices in the recent Cavazos v. Smith decision. 567 Simply stated, these assertions question the reliability of the scientific principles that formulate the physician's “major premise” in the syllogistic argument. In response to those assertions, in the first part of this analysis, Narang examined the scientific underpinnings of two findings commonly seen in AHT/SBS--SDHs and RHs. Narang examined the science supporting the association of these findings with AHT/SBS. As evidence of the reliability of those associative findings, Narang referenced over 200 evidence-based, scientific studies (not editorials or reviews--but clinical studies), detailed the scientific validity of fifteen of those articles, and subjected them to the four Daubert factors used in assessing scientific reliability. 568 In conclusion, Narang determined that not only did this scientific literature meet Daubert criteria for reliability but that there was no “critical mass” questioning the diagnosis or change in general acceptance of the diagnosis. 569 Interestingly, having now been confronted with promulgation of that scientific literature, those same scholars have shifted their arguments. 570 Whereas before they argued that there was little-to-no evidence-based medical literature supporting the © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 31 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... diagnosis (likening it to an “inverted pyramid with a small database”), 571 they have now posited that Narang's use of the “voluminous” scientific literature “serves to intimidate those who are not familiar with its methodological shortcomings.” 572 Whereas before they alleged that the AHT/SBS literature did not engage in the scientific or statistical rigors required by evidence-based medicine, 573 now they state that *293 the literature either misstates the significance of the P-value or does not sufficiently calculate the strength of statistical associations by providing posterior probabilities. 574 And whereas before they asserted that “researchers questioning the basis for SBS reached a critical mass,” 575 now they argue either that “it is increasingly difficult to gauge the extent to which doctors in general agree” 576 or that it is “insufficient to rely on the fact that some professional groups accept or endorse the diagnosis of SBS/AHT.” 577 While it certainly would be entertaining to engage in ongoing debate about “prosecutors' fallacies,” “improper classifications,” and “shifting paradigms,” such an endeavor would be neither productive nor relevant. Ultimately, at this point in the analysis, the focus must be on whether the scientific principles forming the basis of the AHT diagnosis are reliable, i.e., whether there is reliability in the physician's major premise of the syllogistic argument. It is important to note at this point that it is simply beyond the scope of this article to state ALL the scientific principles a physician utilizes in arriving at the AHT/SBS diagnosis. For example, there are many developmental principles of infants and children that physicians utilize in correlation with a history in assessing the reliability of that history. Additionally, there are principles derived from various studies investigating alternative causes of SDHs, RHs, fractures, and bruises that physicians utilize in determining whether to rule out other potential causes of those findings. 578 In his first article, Dr. Narang attempted to highlight some of the key scientific principles regarding SDHs and RHs. However, despite repetition, 579 this still resulted in confusion by some scholars 580 about *294 what exactly those scientific principles were. Thus, given the importance of those principles to the overall analysis, we will restate those scientific principles below (along with their evidence-based medicine levels) in bold, so as to hopefully avoid any further confusion: 1) That trauma is the most common cause of SDHs--based upon epidemiologic studies in young children, both prospective and retrospective, from multiple countries (level 3b evidence); 581 2) That when examining the breakdown of trauma-caused SDHs (i.e., accidental v. non-accidental), non-accidental trauma is by far more common--based upon epidemiology and pathology studies in young children, both prospective and retrospective (level 2b evidence); 582 3) That SDHs being much more common in non-accidental trauma than in accidental trauma is a statistically significant conclusion reached by numerous well-designed, prospective clinical studies (level 2b evidence); 583 *295 4) That severe RHs being much more common in non-accidental trauma than in accidental trauma is a statistically significant conclusion reached by numerous well-designed, prospective clinical studies (level 2b evidence); 584 5) That severe RHs carry a high specificity and positive predictive value for non-accidental trauma--based upon prospective, validating clinical studies and systematic reviews (level 1b and 2a evidence); 585 6) That the absence of a trauma history, in the presence of traumatic injuries, holds a high specificity and positive predictive value for non-accidental trauma--based upon several well-designed, prospective clinical studies (level 2b evidence). 586 As Narang detailed in his first article, these scientific principles are the result of methodologies specifically designed to minimize *296 circularity and bias. 587 They produce results that have been repeatedly reproduced by other physicians. 588 And they © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 32 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... satisfy Daubert criteria for reliability. 589 Findley et al. responded by criticizing the validity of the literature on essentially two grounds--(1) that the methodology of “virtually all” of the studies is marred by “circularity” 590 and (2) that there are various errors clinicians have made in interpreting the results of these studies. 591 As “circular” methodology more directly pertains to the major premise (i.e., the scientific principles), it will be discussed below. As “interpretive errors” pertain more to the minor premise (i.e., the application of those principles to the particular facts of a case), they will be addressed in the “minor premise” section below. Since “circularity” has been alleged to infect “virtually all” of the literature, prior to addressing it, it is appropriate to identify the scientific principles that are deducible from the Accidents, Bleeding Disorders, Biomechanics, and Hypoxia sections discussed above. These scientific conclusions are: 1) That short falls occurring in objective settings, such as hospitals, have not resulted in subdural hematoma or death--based upon several consecutive case series (level 3b evidence); 592 2) That severe injuries or death resulting from short falls are rare events-- based upon well-designed, prospective studies and systematic reviews (level 2a evidence); 593 3) That certain clinical variables, such as apnea and severe RHs, demonstrate high positive predictive values for non-accidental trauma based upon prospective, validating *297 clinical studies and systematic reviews (level 1b and 2a evidence); 594 4) That most bleeding disorders are rare, the more common bleeding disorders typically are mild, and intracranial hemorrhage resulting from bleeding disorders is a rare complication of the more severe rarer diseases--based upon clinical studies (level 3b evidence; level 1b symptom prevalence evidence); 595 5) That biomechanical studies have shown mixed results as to whether shaking can result in the estimated mechanical forces needed to cause SDHs; 596 6) That biomechanical studies have shown that RHs can result from shaking; 597 7) That biomechanical studies have NOT shown that neck “failure” must result prior to the estimated forces required for SDHs being achieved; 598 8) That macroscopic SDHs are not associated with hypoxia--based upon several well-designed radiology and pathology studies (level 2b evidence); 599 9) That severe RHs are not associated with hypoxia--based upon well-designed clinical studies and animal studies (level 2b evidence); 600 and *298 10) That adjunct hypotheses of hypoxia (such as “dysphagia/choking,” “coughing,” or “dural immature vascular plexus”) resulting in SDHs and/or RHs are supported by the lowest levels of evidence-based medicine (level 4 or 5), whereas evidence against such hypotheses is much stronger (level 2b). 601 As with the principles Narang discussed in his first article, and as demonstrated in the sections above, these scientific principles have been subjected to “falsifiability.” They have been peer reviewed and published. They represent the highest levels of statistical analysis. Their results have been reproduced in multiple studies and across various lines of research. And finally, as © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 33 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... these principles form the basis of the generally accepted diagnosis of AHT/SBS, 602 they are generally accepted. Consequently, they are also valid and surpass Daubert scrutiny. With regard to the “circularity” concerns raised by Findley et al., 603 interestingly, much like some of the other positions, this “circularity” argument has also shifted. Whereas before Findley et al. argued that the “circularity” consisted of including SDHs and/or RHs in the defining inclusion criteria of a study, 604 now they argue that “major trauma” is the assumed circular premise in “virtually all” of the literature. 605 *299 Narang addressed this “circularity” 606 argument in his first article. 607 His retorts--of why “circularity” does not explain the historical articles (articles that initially identified these associative injuries prior to the designation of a syndrome) or why NO scientific studies have consequently been created that are not circular and show a lack of this association--have yet to be addressed. Setting aside these unrequited responses, there are several other fatal shortcomings to this argument. First, as scientists, physicians are always asking how to test a hypothesis soundly. Well before the admonishments of Findley et al., physicians themselves recognized the methodological problems of circularity in some of the literature. 608 In efforts to remedy these flaws, physicians created various a priori definitions for AHT (that excluded SDHs and RHs) 609 and even limited some studies to simple comparative cohorts of witnessed accidents versus judicially confessed abusive acts. 610 Yet, Findley et al. still find these to be “circular.” If that is the case, then the simple question is: What would be “non-circular methodology?” If confessions are circular or invalid and all a priori definitions presume something, then what would be a satisfactory methodology for a study? What is the sound methodology Findley et al. would utilize in conducting a study? This is a *300 simple question that Findley et al. have yet to answer. It appears that what is guised as a “circular” critique is actually a philosophical and logical quagmire that devolves into the answer that “nothing,” then, could be non-circular. Second, do doctors really assume that SDHs are caused by major trauma? Or is that not a proven entity? Closer scrutiny of the “circularity” label reveals that the study methodologies are not actually “circular” but simply systematically deductive. Narang spent considerable time in his first article detailing the historical progression of the understanding of SDHs from an infectious etiology to a traumatic etiology. 611 And multiple studies have not only validated that premise 612 but determined that trauma is actually the leading cause of SDHs in infants and children. 613 From years of research, physicians have compiled a list of additional potential causes of SDHs. 614 If one is to then study a particular subset (such as accidental trauma versus non-accidental trauma) of those causes, is not the only logical process to then attempt to exclude all other potential causes prior to studying that subset? This is the methodology that physicians have consistently employed in the various studies discussed above. And this is not “circular”; it is systematic and deductive. Finally, Findley et al.'s critique of circularity itself suffers from a logical fallacy--the fallacy of hasty generalization. Findley et al. wish to place hundreds of studies into a box. 615 And they wish to paint, with one broad swath, a “CIRCULAR” sign along the side of that box, and set that box aside. 616 But are those studies, in fact, circular? For *301 example, Chadwick's systematic review of short falls is not circular because a history of a short fall is not a criterion used to determine that a child has died. 617 Multiple studies of short falls avoid circularity by including EVERY fall seen at the respective institution in a given period of time and by not explicitly separating the children into groups of abused and non-abused children. 618 These studies are manifestly non-circular because the measurement of the outcome variable does not even consider the predictor variable. Finnie's study made circularity impossible by randomly assigning specific lambs to be injured or not injured. 619 Multiple anthropometric and FEM studies use experimental designs that are simply not circular. 620 And the Odom study of the prevalence of RHs in the setting of chest compressions avoided circularity by considering only children thought not to be abused prior to their eye exam. 621 These are but a few of the examples. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 34 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... We are not interested in the elementary back-and-forth of: “yes, it is circular”; “no, it is not circular.” The science speaks for itself. In hopes of transparency, and not “intimidation,” 622 we have presented a reasonable sample of that science. The scientific studies that form the basis of the scientific principles discussed above have been laid out for the reader to judge for himself/ herself. For countless physicians, these studies and the principles they have produced are scientifically valid. They comprise the “major premise” of the AHT syllogistic argument. *302 2. What is the “Differential Diagnosis Methodology?” Stedman's Medical Dictionary defines “differential diagnosis” as “the determination of which of two or more diseases with similar symptoms is the one from which the patient is suffering, by a systematic comparison and contrasting of the clinical findings.” 623 Simply stated, from a medical perspective, it is the list of diseases that physicians consider as possible causes for the signs or symptoms from which the patient is suffering. 624 Interestingly, however, from a legal perspective, courts have varied in their interpretation and understanding of it. Some courts have interpreted it to be the methodology for arriving at causation by “ruling out” alternative causes. 625 Others have interpreted it to require both a “ruling out” and “ruling in” process for arriving at causation. 626 And others have even created legal concepts, such as “differential etiology,” declaring it to be different from “differential diagnosis.” 627 While courts have expressed variable levels of understanding of the differential diagnosis methodology, it is cognitive scientists who have provided the deepest and richest understanding of that *303 methodology. Decades of research has revealed that, whereas it was once thought that physician clinical reasoning proceeded in a discretely linear fashion known as Bayesian analysis, 628 the diagnostic process is actually a nonlinear, unstructured method of problem solving that employs both inferential and deductive reasoning. 629 On occasion, and for various reasons (such as clinical exigency), physicians may bypass the hypothetico-deductive approach and utilize a different reasoning process known as “heuristics,” or problem-solving shortcuts. 630 In the differential diagnosis methodology, the physician gathers historical information on a patient's symptoms and signs and generates hypotheses (a.k.a., the differential diagnosis). 631 Through the attainment of additional clinical information (via various diagnostic tests), the physician goes through an inferential and deductive process of hypothesis refinement until a consistent “working diagnosis” is achieved. 632 Hypothesis refinement utilizes a variety of reasoning strategies--probabilistic, causal, and deterministic--to discriminate *304 among the existing diagnoses of the differential diagnosis. 633 While being mindful of the pitfalls of heuristics, the physician ultimately proceeds to hypothesis confirmation when the laws of diagnostic “adequacy,” “coherency,” and “parsimony” are satisfied. 634 In the simplest sense, the methodology relies on process-of- elimination reasoning. As one eminent evidentiary scholar stated, “[i]n differential diagnosis, if there are four possible diagnoses and you eliminate three, logic points to the last illness as the correct diagnosis.” 635 In AHT/SBS cases, the differential diagnosis depends on the findings presented. Soft tissue injuries (such as bruises) have a differential diagnosis. Fractures (either long bone or skull) have a differential diagnosis. And intracranial findings (such as SDHs or cerebral edema) and ophthalmologic findings (such as RHs) also have a differential diagnosis. 636 It is the physician's task to parse through the historical information, the physical examination, and the laboratory and radiologic results to arrive at a unifying diagnosis that satisfies the criteria of “adequacy,” “parsimony,” and “coherency.” As Narang has already stated, in many cases but obviously not all, *305 the unifying diagnosis will be trauma. 637 From there, the physician will again utilize the historical information, the physical examination, the laboratory/radiology results, the medical literature, and his/her experience to distinguish between accidental and non-accidental trauma. This process/methodology will be examined in further detail below. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 35 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 3. Is the “differential diagnosis methodology,” in general, a reliable methodology for applying the major premise to the specific facts of a case (i.e., the “minor premise”)? A scholar once mused that both Sherlock Holmes and Captain Spock agreed on the same proposition“when you have eliminated the [other possibilities], whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.” 638 That scholar went on to state, “when the most logical human and a Vulcan agree on a proposition, that proposition must have merit.” 639 While this is not the crux of our analysis, it is an interesting starting point. Courts have long held that the differential diagnosis methodology is a reliable methodology for arriving at specific causation in tort cases. 640 In those cases, courts have also commented that “[d]ifferential diagnosis is a well-recognized and widely used technique in the medical community to identify and isolate causes of disease and death.” 641 In criminal cases, and more specifically in AHT/SBS cases, the courts have concluded no differently. 642 However, judicial decisions *306 have offered little insight into why the methodology is reliable. Additionally, recent investigation into the forensic sciences has raised concern over implicit contextual and cognitive biases in the methodologies underlying forensic judgments. 643 Thus, these concerns may justify a re-evaluation of previously unchallenged methodologies. With all due respect to the acumen of the brethren in the long black robe, the ipse dixit of the judicial expert may be no better than the ipse dixit of the medical expert. So then, what exactly is it that makes the differential diagnosis methodology reliable? And has it been unsalvageably infected with the contextual and cognitive biases that seem to undermine other forensic judgments? One oft-asserted validation of the differential diagnosis methodology is that it is a methodology employed for making life-or- death decisions and, ergo, must be reliable. The Advisory Committee Notes for the drafters of the Federal Rules of Evidence indicates that one of the drafters' objectives was to formulate evidentiary standards in accord with experts' practices in the field. 644 Those Notes asserted that if a physician “in his own practice” considers a certain type of data and “makes life-and-death decisions in reliance on them,” common *307 sense suggests that reasoning relying on such data should also be acceptable in the courtroom. 645 Those same advisory committee comments were echoed almost a decade after the Federal Rules of Evidence went into effect by a leading evidentiary commentator, Professor Charles Nesson, when he published a celebrated article arguing that testimony based on the reasoning processes commonly used by medical diagnosticians ought to be admissible in court. 646 Another factor pointing to its reliability is that the differential diagnosis methodology is rooted in the scientific method. If the core of science is “falsifiability”--the formulation of hypotheses and the conduct of systematic experimentation or observation to validate or “falsify” those hypotheses--then the differential diagnosis methodology is science embodied (no pun intended). Physicians formulate causal hypotheses for illness and other medical injuries and utilize the differential diagnosis methodology for the systematic validation or falsification of those hypotheses. But not only has the differential diagnosis employed “falsifiability,” it has been subjected to it as well. As mentioned above, cognitive scientists have conducted years of research on the methodology to assess and identify its strengths and weaknesses. In that course, the differential diagnosis methodology has itself been subject to peer-reviewed publication. 647 Additionally, the methodology's process-of-elimination reasoning is utilized not just by physicians, but by lay persons and lawyers as well. 648 It is not just “generally accepted”; it is “generally utilized.” As Karl Popper, one of the preeminent philosophers of science, stated, science is only “common-sense knowledge writ large.” 649 The most reasonable challenge to the reliability of the differential *308 diagnosis methodology (or to any methodology that involves human analytic reasoning) is bias and errors of cognition. Findley et al. have labeled some of these as “observer bias” and “interpretive errors” (such as “improper classifications” and “the prosecutor's fallacy”). 650 The National Research Council, in its recent global assessment of the forensic sciences, generally described them as “cognitive” and “contextual” biases. 651 © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 36 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... The Council went on to warn that “[t]he traps created by such biases can be very subtle, and typically one is not aware that his or her judgment is being affected.” 652 With regard to the forensic disciplines, the Council concluded that: Unfortunately, at least to date, there is no good evidence to indicate that the forensic science community has made a sufficient effort to address the bias issue; thus, it is impossible for the committee to fully assess the magnitude of the problem. 653 Thus, the Council recommended that the National Institute of Forensic Science fund and conduct further research on human observer bias and sources of human error in forensic examinations. 654 In its discussion of error rates, the Council identified four statistical principles that are especially helpful in assessing error rates: sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value. 655 The Council stated that a “global error rate” can be estimated by summing the percentage of false positives and false negatives of a particular test. 656 For example, a test with a 95% sensitivity has a 5% false negative rate. 657 And a test with a 97% specificity *309 has a 3% false positive rate. 658 Thus, the “global error rate” of that particular test could be estimated as four percent [(5+3)/200 x 100 = 4%]. While a bit simplistic, and not dispositive of the reliability of a particular test, it does offer some statistical quantification of the “error rate” criteria sought by Daubert. Narang discussed the application of these statistical principles (and odds ratios) to the SDH/ RH literature in his first article. 659 The application of these statistical principles in the differential diagnosis methodology of a child abuse case will be exemplified below. As mentioned above, cognitive scientists have provided invaluable insight on bias in decision making, specifically in clinical medicine. In Daniel Kahneman's Nobel prize acceptance essay, Maps of Bounded Rationality: A Perspective on Intuitive Judgment and Choice, the author summarizes a long and an arduous journey wherein he and his colleague, Amos Tversky, “explored the psychology of intuitive beliefs and choices and examined their bounded rationality.” 660 Kahneman and Tversky identified “a two-system view” that distinguishes intuition from reasoning. 661 “The operations of System 1 [intuition] are fast, automatic, effortless, associative, and difficult to control or modify.” 662 “The operations of System 2 [[reasoning] are slower, serial, effortful, and deliberately controlled; they are also relatively flexible and potentially rule-governed.” 663 “A defining property of intuitive thoughts is that they come to mind *310 spontaneously, like percepts,” and can result in rash judgments, also known as “heuristics.” 664 This concept of “heuristics” has been a vital concept in understanding the pitfalls of clinical decision making. 665 The concept of “judgment heuristics” informs us that “intuitive judgments of probability are mediated by attributes such as similarity and associative fluency” and “are not intrinsically related to uncertainty.” 666 Other attributes of heuristic judgments include susceptibility to availability bias, accessibility bias, anchoring, representativeness, overweighting, and attribute substitution, to name a few. 667 Kahneman notes that “people rely on a limited number of heuristic principles which reduce the complex tasks of assessing probabilities and predicting values to simpler judgmental operations.” 668 While these heuristics can be quite useful, “sometimes they lead to severe and systematic errors.” 669 However, Kahneman and Tversky determined that errors of heuristic judgments can be tempered by the slow, serial, effortful, deliberate, and rule-oriented operations of System 2. 670 The efficacy of System 2, in its ability to mitigate heuristic judgments, is impaired “by time pressure,” “by concurrent involvement in a different cognitive task,” and even “by being in a good mood.” 671 The authors state: The central finding in studies of intuitive decisions, as described by Klein (1998), is that experienced decision makers working under pressure, such as captains of firefighting companies, rarely need to choose © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 37 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... between options because in most cases only a single option *311 comes to their mind . . . . Doubt is a phenomenon of System 2, a meta-cognitive appreciation of one's ability to think incompatible thoughts about the same thing. 672 “Conversely, the facility of System 2 is positively correlated with intelligence, with ‘need for cognition,’ and with exposure to statistical thinking.” 673 Thus, the question to be asked is: How susceptible is the differential diagnosis methodology in child abuse cases to heuristic judgments? It would be scientifically irresponsible to state that the differential diagnosis methodology employed in child abuse cases is immune to heuristic judgments. However, several factors make it less susceptible. First and foremost, the exigency of “time-pressure” circumstances is not one encountered by the child abuse pediatric consultant. Unlike the firefighter, the emergency room physician treating a patient suspected of a myocardial infarction (a.k.a., heart attack) or the intensive care physician running a code, the child abuse pediatric consultant does not experience those time- pressured circumstances. Like other diagnostic consultants, such as infectious disease or endocrinology, the child abuse pediatric consultant has hours to days (if not weeks in certain circumstances) to cogitate upon a differential diagnosis, to order appropriate laboratory and radiology tests, to confer with other subspecialists and interdisciplinary partners, and consequently, to further refine that differential. Second, the lack of time pressure naturally creates an environment that is suited to a “need for cognition.” The child abuse pediatric consultant has ample opportunity and resources for the creation and resolution of doubt. But as Kahneman and Tversky warn, bias is often implicit and goes unrecognized. 674 So what assurance is there that even the cogitating, unpressured child abuse consultant is not shackled with implicit biases? There are two other important attributes that mitigate the impact of any implicit biases--the multi-disciplinary approach and the utilization of statistical thinking/EBM (evidence-based medicine). *312 Child abuse pediatric consultants often engage in multi-disciplinary evaluations of child abuse cases. These evaluations involve the cognitive efforts of multiple pediatric subspecialists--radiologists, ophthalmologists, neurosurgeons, hematologists, orthopedic surgeons, pathologists, and child abuse pediatricians. Additionally, social interdisciplinary partners (such as law enforcement officials and social workers) provide valuable information that typically is not obtained in routine medical history gathering. Thus, a system is forged whereby comprehensive information is collectively gathered, shared, and evaluated. And as mentioned above, this is not a process amenable or available to all clinical situations and all circumstances (i.e., the ER physician in an emergency situation or the critical care physician in a critical situation). Is this an error proof process? Of course not. Is this an indictment of particular physicians? Of course not. It is merely a recognition of the fact that the comprehensive and collective cognitive operations of the many at least minimize the risk of undetected implicit bias in the single. Finally, as demonstrated in Narang's first article and in the sections above, physicians have utilized EBM to improve the scientific data in child abuse research. As one cognitive scientist stated: “Evidence-based medicine is the most recent, and by most standards the most successful, effort to date to apply statistical decision theory in clinical medicine.” 675 Physicians have incorporated rigorous design methodologies and statistical analyses (such as logistic regression) to account for confounding variables and bias. These have resulted in not only scientific principles with high degrees of statistical confidence and probability but in principles that have been reproduced, along multiple lines of research, by various physician scientists across the world. As Narang discussed in his first article, the concept of convergent validation offers explanation for their increased validity. 676 Kahneman echoes this in his conclusion: “The claim that cognitive illusions will occur unless they are prevented by System 2 sounds *313 circular, but it is not. Circular inferences are avoidable because the role of System 2 can be independently verified in several ways.” 677 © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 38 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... Despite these insulations, is there room for improvement in minimizing the potentiality of implicit bias in clinical decision making? Certainly. Probably the most important one is the need for increased recognition of and education about the topic. 678 As judges have recently increased awareness and education on implicit bias in judicial decision making, physicians need to follow suit. Currently, early medical education involves some “problem-based learning [on] the formulation and testing of clinical hypotheses.” 679 But detailed, intensive education about the pitfalls of clinical decision making--i.e., the pitfalls in “hypothesis generation,” “diagnostic creation and revision,” and “probability estimation and revision”-- is lacking. 680 Thus, increased education in medical school and continuing medical education would be good steps in this direction. Another consideration in assessing the reliability of the differential diagnosis methodology in AHT/SBS cases is whether it is tethered to the standards of medical practice. Is the same methodology employed in AHT/SBS cases as in other medical cases? Or is it a peculiar diagnostic methodology? In Narang's first article, and herein above, Narang argued that the methodology employed in coming to the diagnosis of AHT is no different from the methodology employed in arriving at any medical diagnosis. 681 Findley et al. have asserted that the medical decision making in AHT/SBS cases differs from other medical diagnoses, such as migraine headaches, because in those diagnoses, unlike in AHT/SBS, “doctors generally correlate the patient's description of the symptoms and their onset (the patient history) with objective medical data (such as lab results) and response to treatment.” 682 *314 This assertion is, in a word, wrong. As has been demonstrated above, physicians do order a host of laboratory and radiologic tests (bleeding studies, bone health labs, x-rays, CTs, MRIs, etc.) and correlate those results with a patient's history. Physicians do effect a treatment--placement in a safer environment--and assess the re-occurrence of any symptoms or injuries in that safer environment. In fact, it is the very inconsistency of the history provided by a caregiver with these objective results that is the cornerstone of the AHT/SBS diagnosis. So the more pertinent question is whether there are other medical diagnoses where there is inconsistency between history and objective medical data and the differential diagnosis methodology is also employed in arriving at that diagnosis. The answer is, in a word, yes. There are multiple diagnoses that fit this bill--pediatric condition falsification, anorexia nervosa, and drug seeking behavior, to name a few. However, a detailed analysis of one should crystalize this point. The diagnosis of bulimia nervosa is “binge eating and inappropriate compensatory methods to prevent weight gain.” 683 “The most common compensatory technique is the induction of vomiting after an episode of binge eating,” but “[o]ther purging behaviors include the misuse of laxatives and diuretics.” 684 A key component of the diagnosis is the patient's denial of the purging behavior, but with manifest physical signs or lab tests indicating the diagnosis. Some of these findings include dental erosion, palatal or oral trauma (from attempted induction of vomiting), abrasions along the backs of the hands (from attempted induction of vomiting), or electrolyte imbalances (from chronic vomiting or laxative use). 685 As with any other medical condition, there are other conditions on the differential diagnosis to consider prior to arriving at the diagnosis. These include anorexia nervosa, depression, gastrointestinal obstructive disorders, body dysmorphic disorder, Kluver Bucy syndrome, and gastrointestinal infectious *315 diseases. 686 It is the physician's task to consider these other disorders on the differential and order the appropriate labs and imaging prior to ruling them out 687 before arriving at the bulimia nervosa diagnosis. There is no question that bulimia nervosa is a valid diagnosis, or that a physician can reliably arrive at that diagnosis using the differential diagnosis methodology. Much of what has been discussed above has been conceptual, esoteric, and possibly even vague. Perhaps an example of how the physician employs the differential diagnosis methodology in an AHT/SBS case will assist in clarifying the issue of its reliability. A three-month-old infant presents to the emergency room for “stopping breathing” (apnea). The mother's boyfriend, who was caring for the child while the mother was at work, states that the infant was crying. When he gave the infant a bottle, the infant “choked and gagged” and then “stopped breathing.” He “shook” the infant gently to revive the infant. When the infant began crying a short time later, he soothed the infant and waited for the mother to return home, which occurred some hours later. When the mother returned home, the infant appeared pale and lethargic, and so the mother and her boyfriend proceeded to the ER for evaluation. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 39 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... At the ER, the mother and her boyfriend denied any trauma for the infant in the prior three months of life. The mother denied any other problems in the child's medical history or any notable family medical history. On physical examination, the child was noted to have a small amount of swelling to the back of the head, but nothing else notable on physical examination--no bruising, scars, or other lesions. A head CT scan performed in the ER revealed an acute (fresh) subdural hemorrhage (SDH) along the front of both brain hemispheres and in between them (interhemispheric) and developing cerebral edema (brain swelling). The child was admitted for further *316 evaluation and management, and CPS was called. Further hospital evaluation, including whole body x-rays (a skeletal survey), revealed healing rib fractures on the right side of the rib cage. Ophthalmologic exam by the pediatric ophthalmologist revealed severe retinal hemorrhages (RHs) in both eyes. A child abuse pediatrician was consulted. In this scenario, which is not different from many child abuse cases, the child abuse pediatrician is presented with multiple findings 688 --soft tissue swelling to the head, acute SDH, brain swelling (cerebral edema), severe RHs, and rib fractures--all of which have their own differential diagnoses. 689 For example, soft tissue swelling of the scalp has a limited differential diagnosis--trauma, infection (such as fungal or bacterial), inflammatory conditions, and dermatologic conditions (such as epidermal inclusion cysts). SDHs and RHs have a more expansive differential, 690 which can be generally characterized as trauma, bleeding disorders, malignancy, infection, and metabolic/genetic diseases. Rib fractures have a limited differential-- trauma, genetic disease (such as osteogenesis imperfecta), nutritional deficiency (which results in weakened bone health and predisposes bones to fracture with mild trauma), prematurity, and medical procedures (such as cardiopulmonary resuscitation). 691 And cerebral edema does not itself have a differential diagnosis, but is rather a complex pathophysiological response to brain injury (resulting either primarily from direct trauma or as a *317 secondary response to lack of blood oxygen and blood). 692 After the formulation of appropriate differential diagnoses for the relevant medical findings, it is at this point that the child abuse pediatrician engages in an inferential and deductive reasoning process that is in some aspects Bayesian and some aspects not. 693 In ruling out certain conditions on the differential, a physician may only utilize historical information, such as whether or not the child was born prematurely to rule out “prematurity,” or whether or not CPR was performed to rule out “medical procedures” (as differential diagnoses for the rib fractures). In other cases, the physician may utilize historical information in combination with physical exam findings to rule out certain conditions. For example, in ruling out fungal or bacterial infection (as differential diagnoses for the soft-tissue swelling on the head), a physician would utilize the presence or absence of fever and the presence or absence of physical exam skin findings indicative of infection (like redness, warmth, bogginess, or the presence of blisters, vesicles, or scales). And, in other cases, the physician would combine historical information, physical exam findings, and laboratory information to rule out other conditions on the differential--such as using the absence of any historical symptoms, physical findings of lymph nodes or liver or spleen enlargement, and a normal white blood cell count (a lab) to rule out leukemia (on the differential for SDHs and RHs). All these manners of eliminating certain conditions from the various differential diagnoses are non-Bayesian, i.e., there is no statistical quantification (pre and post-test probabilities) of the singular (e.g., the presence or absence of premature history in eliminating “prematurity”) or cumulative (e.g., using historical, physical exam information, and the white blood count to eliminate “leukemia”) probabilities of these diagnostic factors in the diagnostic process. Yet these are very reliable methods of eliminating some of the conditions from the differential diagnosis. They are rooted in years of experience with the known pathophysiological processes of disease and the *318 human body. And often, they are sanctified in medical treatises. 694 This is simply a reminder that the mere absence of linear, Bayesian analysis does not connote unreliability. But there are aspects of the AHT/SBS differential diagnosis methodology that are conducive to Bayesian analysis. For example, in order to rule out bleeding disorders as a possible cause of SDHs in our scenario, it is informative to calculate the probability that a given bleeding disorder causes intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in the general population. If we remember from the Bleeding © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 40 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... Disorders section above, this is attainable by multiplying the prevalence of that bleeding disorder by the prevalence of ICH in that bleeding disorder: 695 (Prevalence of bleeding disorder) x (Prevalence of ICH in that bleeding disorder) For example, as noted in the Bleeding Disorders section above, the prevalence of Hemophilia A (Factor VIII) in the male population is 1 in 5000. 696 Also as noted in that section, the literature demonstrates that between 5-12% of these individuals will get an ICH at some time in their life. 697 Thus, assuming the highest prevalence (12%), the estimated probability that a person will get an ICH due to Hemophilia A is 2.4 per 100,000. But that is a lifetime risk assessment for hemophiliacs. If even 10% of these intracranial hemorrhages occurred in the first year of life, the rate would be only 24.1 in every 100,000 boys (or about 1 in 4 million). This is substantially lower than the incidence of SDHs attributable to AHT/SBS in the first year of life--which ranges from 24-29/100,000. 698 Comparatively, SDHs are about 100 times more likely to *319 be secondary to AHT/SBS than Hemophilia A. And this is assuming the child has Hemophilia A. If lab testing rules out this diagnosis, then this comparative analysis is moot. Similar comparative ratios are available for all the bleeding disorders based upon the table listed in the Bleeding Disorders section above. 699 Another example of Bayesian analysis is the probability of differentiating accidental trauma from AHT based upon the presence of the severe RHs. Here again, the evidence-based literature is instructive for physicians. Maguire et al. conducted a systematic review of RHs in AHT and accidental trauma. 700 The authors used strict inclusion criteria to identify 62 studies that represented 998 children aged 0-11 years, many of which were comparative studies between cohorts of accidental and non-accidental injury patients. 701 The authors only included studies where abuse was witnessed, admitted, or confirmed through multidisciplinary assessment and, in the comparative studies with accidents, where the accidents were witnessed. 702 This ensured minimization of ‘circularity’ in diagnosis by not relying on clinical features in the diagnostic assessment. 703 The authors performed multilevel logistic regression so that the data would be “more strongly correlated within the studies than between the studies.” 704 Based upon their meta-analysis, they found that the probability of abuse in a child with head trauma and RHs was ninety-one percent. 705 However, rather than computing statistics (the probability of *320 abuse) that were limited to the population of patients in their study, the authors also calculated an odds ratio of abuse--a statistic that is generalizable to all populations of patients. 706 The authors determined that a child with head trauma and RHs has an odds ratio of 14.66 (95% CI: 6.39-33.62) for abuse. 707 In other words, if you know what the likelihood of abuse is for children admitted to your own Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU), ER, or clinic with trauma, and you then find that one of those children has RHs, the likelihood that the child has been abused is now 14.6 times greater than that prior probability. And these are not the only evidence-based statistics that physicians consider. Well-conducted systematic reviews discriminating inflicted from accidental injury have concluded that in a child with intracranial injury, apnea has an odds ratio of seventeen for abuse (with a positive predictive value of 93%) and rib fractures have an odds ratio of three for abuse. 708 While it may seem that these ratios (odds ratio of fourteen, seventeen, or three) are numerically not that high, they are actually rather impressive. For example, there is a proven benefit that psychosocial interventions (such as self-help material and telephone support) help people with ischemic heart disease quit smoking. 709 The evidence was so compelling for these strategies that they are now routine practice. Yet, the odds ratio for behavioral therapies was only 1.69 (95% CI 1.33 to 2.14), for telephone support 1.58 (95% CI 1.28 to 1.97), and for self-help only 1.48 (95% CI 1.11 to 1.96). 710 Taken in this context, the odds ratio for abuse with specific associated clinical features (apnea, retinal hemorrhages) is extremely compelling. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 41 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... Finally, and most importantly, evidence-based literature has quantitatively specified that which common sense has qualitatively *321 known: In a child with traumatic intracranial injury, the absence of a trauma history has a 97% specificity and 92% positive predictive value for abuse. 711 A predictive value is another statistic that is immensely helpful. It is the probability of a disease after additional information (such as from a test) has been obtained. 712 Thus, a positive predictive value is the probability of disease in those known to have a positive test result. Or in the above scenario, in the child with traumatic intracranial injury, the absence of trauma history (a.k.a., the positive test) indicates a 92% probability of abuse. While it may seem that the statistics are dispositive, they are actually only a portion of the analysis. Physicians must remain mindful of “conjunction fallacies,” “overweighting,” “errors in [the] revision of probabilities,” and other pitfalls. 713 Cognizance of these potential errors minimizes the probability of their occurrence. Ultimately, the differential diagnosis methodology is a marriage of evidence-based literature and experience; a symbiosis of inferential and deductive reasoning; a synergy of linear and non-linear dynamic thought. It is the methodology by which physicians achieve diagnostic sufficiency. 714 So with the information presented, the questions for the reader and the gatekeeper are: Is the methodology presented “junk science?” Is it not even “good enough to be wrong?” The reliability of the differential diagnosis methodology, a methodology utilized by all physicians--not just child abuse pediatricians, has been laid out for the reader to judge for himself or herself. For countless physicians, this methodology is reliable. In general, the application of this methodology to the facts of a case *322 comprises the “minor premise” of the AHT syllogistic argument. The sound application of this methodology to a particular set of facts is for the individual, particular the gatekeeper, to determine. C. The “Path Forward”: Throwing the Baby out with the Bath Water (Figuratively Speaking) Findley et al. have suggested that our disagreement on this issue (AHT/SBS) is “narrow but critical.” 715 We could not disagree more. Our disagreement lies not just in a misunderstanding of the quality or sufficiency of the medical literature; it represents a vast philosophical and ideological difference about the value and roles of clinical judgment and our current jury system in cases involving medical expert testimony. We shall examine the logical shortcomings of Findley et al.'s positions and discuss our recommendations for resolving Daubert issues in AHT/SBS cases. 1. The fog of legal argument There is an old defense adage: “If you can't win on the facts, argue the law; if you can't win on the law, then just confuse everyone.” The applicability of this axiom will hopefully be apparent. Findley et al. bemoan the “subjective” and unreliable nature of clinical judgment. 716 The authors state that its “subjective nature” is not “the objective medical evidence envisioned by evidence-based medicine and Daubert” and would ultimately “result in mistaken diagnoses and false convictions.” 717 Despite making this assertion repeatedly, 718 the authors then conclude that certain clinical judgments (in AHT/SBS cases) are “obvious,” 719 without defining by what criteria they become “obvious,” if clinical judgment is “obviously” unreliable. Additionally, if “subjectivity” spells the death of clinical *323 judgment, then what physician testimony could ever survive? Such reasoning would necessitate the undesirable exclusion of all physician testimony--the pediatrician, the emergency room physician, the neurosurgeon, the ophthalmologist, the radiologist, and the forensic pathologist. Findley et al. invoke this same fallacy--hasty generalization--in their argument for the invalidation of the AHT/SBS diagnosis. The authors spend considerable effort arguing that biomechanics has conclusively demonstrated that shaking does not even © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 42 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... come close to reaching the thresholds for causing concussive injury or SDHs. 720 Then Findley et al. generalize this premise-- that shaking cannot cause SDHs--as the basis for invalidating the entire AHT/SBS diagnosis. 721 Yet, despite proffering the diagnosis as invalid, as mentioned above, the authors nevertheless concede that some AHT/SBS cases are “obvious.” 722 This begs the question of how some cases are “obvious” if the diagnosis is in fact invalid. Interestingly, the confusion takes a different turn. Whereas Findley et al. are adamant that science has demonstrated that shaking is not dangerous, the authors then ultimately concede that “violent shaking” is “dangerous,” and that “there are few costs and many potential benefits associated with educating parents that they should never shake a child.” 723 With that inconsistency being apparent, questions arise: If shaking does not even come close to concussive or SDH-causative forces, then what exactly do Findley et al. believe shaking is “dangerous” enough to cause? A bruise? A neck sprain? If shaking is not dangerous enough to cause serious injury, then why are prevention programs necessary or recommended? To prevent a potential bruise or neck sprain? Considerable medical research resources have already been spent to validate something that res ipsa loquitur sufficiently explains--that shaking a young infant can and does cause serious intracranial injury. It is careful, deliberate, and *324 reasoned medical judgment through the differential diagnosis methodology that helps to eliminate potential alternative causes for those injuries. 2. Lifting the fog Married with this confusion is a healthy distrust of the jury system. Findley et al. state: This approach [experts with differing perspectives arguing it out in the courtroom] presents two problems. First, trying and retrying undecided scientific issues on a weekly basis is extraordinarily expensive and inevitably results in inconsistent and ‘fluky’ justice. Second, and perhaps more important, if doctors cannot agree on these complex and unresolved issues, it is unlikely that jurors or judges can do any better. 724 Findley et al. argue that the resolution to this issue, or “the path forward” or “getting it right,” is to “acknowledge the complexities” and, when applicable, to say “we don't know.” 725 Setting aside the veiled professional adhominem that physicians do not already do this (and consequently, are diagnosing and testifying carelessly, capriciously, maliciously, or at best, erroneously), the logical consequence of this course is diagnostic and testimonial abstinence. But is that really “getting it right?” Or is that just a safer course for those who are alleged or actual perpetrators of abuse? Do diagnostic and testimonial abstinence not then end up supplanting one “fluky justice” for another? It seems to us that justice should balance the “actual innocents” on both sides of the scale, not just those potentially accused of child abuse. Thus, before we “toss the baby out with the bathwater,” we propose improvements in our current constructs, both medical and legal, as a true path forward. From the medical construct, first and foremost, there must be increased funding for child maltreatment research at both the state and federal levels. 726 Increased funding for *325 evidence-based research in the forensic disciplines was a primary recommendation by the National Research Council. 727 The extension to the field of child maltreatment is a natural corollary. At present, the Institute of Medicine is already investigating avenues of needed research in the field of child maltreatment. 728 However, it cannot be emphasized enough that the need for further research is not an indictment of the quality of the current research. As demonstrated above, multiple research collaboratives have enhanced the current evidence-based literature such that we are on the verge of clinical decision rules in AHT/SBS. 729 Second, as Narang mentioned in his first article 730 (and Findley et al. have echoed), 731 a multidisciplinary body, under the auspices of the National Academy of Sciences and/or the National Institute of Health, needs to make a global assessment of the evidence-based literature on AHT/SBS and promulgate its findings. Third, medical professional societies must take a more active role in the regulation of irresponsible testimony by its members. One organization, the American Association of © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 43 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... Neurologic Surgeons, has been a model for the societies in imposing disciplinary actions against its members for irresponsible expert testimony. 732 Other societies need to follow suit. Finally, physicians need to engage in reciprocal intra-disciplinary and inter-disciplinary educational efforts on multiple medico-legal topics in AHT/SBS, to include but not limited to, implicit bias in medical decision making, evidence-based literature and AHT/SBS, and responsible expert testimony in AHT/SBS. With regard to the legal construct, making inroads into the problem of ensuring reliable medical expert testimony requires travel *326 along several paths. The Supreme Court and legal scholars have clearly recognized that Daubert has not turned out to be the panacea it was believed it would be. Thus, with the recent ruling in Melendez-Diaz, 733 some scholars assert the Court has sought to remedy Daubert's shortcomings by strengthening the confrontation rights of the accused. 734 While emboldening the Confrontation Clause is certainly an acceptable adjunct, emboldening the gatekeeper and the jury are valuable objectives as well. One important avenue for achieving those objectives is the increased utilization of FRE 706. The assistance of the independent expert to the court (for Daubert purposes) and to the jury (for any questions that may arise in the course of the adversarial process) could well serve the goals of truth and justice. This sage counsel was offered by Judge Learned Hand over a hundred years ago, 735 but this counsel has found spotty adherence at best. As with the medical construct, another important consideration is the need for more legal/social science research. Bold assertions have been made of a judicial system that is “riddled with false convictions.” 736 But in order to adequately assess the validity of such statements, or at least to adequately grasp the scope of the problem, a denominator is needed. Certainly, false convictions have occurred. But in what percentage of cases? Currently, there is only conjecture. Not only is that research needed, but further research is needed into why these false convictions have occurred, what variables are most common in those cases, and what systemic changes would be effective in minimizing those cases. Finally, also as with medicine, additional education for the gatekeeper (on topics such as the basics of good scientific studies, ongoing advances in the science related to AHT/SBS, etc.) would be beneficial. *327 VIII. Conclusion What has been presented for the reader in Narang's first article and in this article is a reasonable summary of the evidence-based literature that girds the AHT/SBS diagnosis, an analysis of the strengths and limitations of that literature, and a detailed Daubert analysis of the differential diagnosis methodology by which physicians arrive at that diagnosis. These comprise the major and minor premises of the syllogistic structure of the expert's opinion offered in court. For countless physicians and professional medical societies, they are valid and reliable. What has also been presented, in contrast, is the lack of evidence-based literature for alternative hypotheses--such as hypoxia, the immature dural vascular plexus theory, dysphagic choking, and “neck” injury. AHT/SBS cases are complex, difficult cases. Physicians engaged in such cases do “acknowledge the complexities” and “consider alternative medical causes.” It is exactly those precepts that delayed the medical and societal recognition of abusive injury as the correct diagnosis in the early historical cases. 737 Now, some scholars argue for a return to those times as a “path forward.” But diagnostic and testimonial abstinence has had its day on the scientific stage. It has had its day on the differential . . . and science has ruled it out. Footnotes 1 The authors' use of the terminology “Abusive Head Trauma/Shaken Baby Syndrome” is not to imply that the terms are interchangeable. It is simply to recognize that there is a commonly recognized subset of Abusive Head Trauma-- Shaken Baby Syndrome--that is the primary subject of controversy, and that pediatricians have transitioned to a more encompassing term--Abusive Head Trauma. See, e.g., Emily Bazelon, Shaken Baby Syndrome Faces New Questions in Court, N.Y. Times, Feb. 2, 2011, available at http:// www.nytimes.com/2011/02/06/magazine/06baby-t.html?_r=1. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 44 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 2 Id.; Deborah Tuerkheimer, Anatomy of a Misdiagnosis, N.Y. Times, Sept. 20, 2010, available at www.nytimes.com/2010/09/21/ opinion/21tuerkheimer.html?ref=opinion. 3 See generally Keith A. Findley et al., Shaken Baby Syndrome, Abusive Head Trauma, and Actual Innocence: Getting It Right, 12 Hous. J. Health L. & Pol'y 209 (2012); Deborah Tuerkheimer, The Next Innocence Project: Shaken Baby Syndrome and the Criminal Courts, 87 Wash. U. L. Rev. 1 (2009). 4 See, e.g., State v. Edmunds, 746 N.W.2d 590 (Wis. Ct. App. 2008) (finding that a “significant and legitimate debate in the medical community has developed in the past ten years”); Hamilton v. Commonwealth, 293 S.W.3d 413 (Ky. Ct. App. 2009) (holding error to permit testimony on shaken baby syndrome without first conducting a Daubert hearing since no Kentucky case had specifically determined it was a “reliable” theory). 5 Cavazos v. Smith, 132 S.Ct. 2, 10 (2011). 6 Id. 7 J. Moreno & B. Holmgren, Dissent into Confusion: The Supreme Court, Pseudoscience, and the False Shaken Baby Syndrome Controversy, Utah L. Rev. (forthcoming 2013). 8 Stephen Breyer, Introduction, in Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, Second Edition 1-8, 4 (2000) (citation refers only to the quoted words “[not] even good enough to be wrong”). 9 Moreno & Holmgren, supra note 7. (providing a detailed analysis of the rationales and shortcomings of the dissenting justices' opinion in Cavazos v. Smith). 10 Sandeep Narang, A Daubert Analysis of Abusive Head Trauma/Shaken Baby Syndrome, 11 Hous. J. Health L. & Pol'y 505, 505 (2012). 11 Id. at 578. 12 Id. at 541-48. 13 Id. at 548-58. 14 Id. at 574-76. 15 Id. at 576-83. 16 Id. at 628-29. 17 See generally L. Frasier et al., Abusive Head Trauma In Infants & Children: A Medical, Legal, and Forensic Reference (G. W. Medical Pub. 2006); L. Rorke-Adams et al., Head Trauma, in Child Abuse: Medical Diagnosis & Management 53-119 (R. Reece & C. Christian eds., American Academy of Pediatrics 2009); C. Jenny, Child Abuse and Neglect: Diagnosis, Treatment, and Evidence, ch. 6, 39-48 (2010). 18 See Oxford Centre for Evidence-based Medicine, Levels of Evidence (March 2009), www.cebm.net/index.aspx?o=1025 (last updated Jan. 29, 2013) (last visited March 1, 2013). 19 “Hypoxia” is defined as low tissue oxygenation. See Christian Rosenberger et al., Immunohistochemical Detection of Hypoxia- Inducible Factor-1a in Human Renal Allograft Biopsies, 18 J. Am. Soc. Nephrol. 343, 349 (2006); “Ischemia” is defined as a deprivation of blood supply to body tissue. See, e.g., David J. Hearse, Ischemia, Reperfusion, and the Determinants of Tissue Injury, 4 Cardiovascular Drugs & Therapy 767, 768 (1990). 20 Hippocrates, Of the Epidemics, (University of Adelaide Library 2007), available at http://ebooks.adelaide.edu.au/h/hippocrates/ edpidemics/ (last updated Sept. 16, 2012; last visited March 1, 2013). 21 See, e.g., id. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 45 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 22 The Lancet, a prominent medical journal, was first published October 5, 1823. See About the Lancet Medical Journal, Elsevier, Inc., http:// www.thelancet.com/lancet-about. 23 David L. Sackett et al., Evidence Based Medicine: What It Is and What It Isn't, 312 BMJ 71, 71 (1996) (emphasis added). 24 See, e.g., Brad Petrisor & Mohit Bhandari, The Hierarchy of Evidence: Levels and Grades of Recommendation, 41 Indian J. Orthopaedics 11, 11 (2007). 25 See Sackett et al., supra note 23, at 72. 26 See Petrisor & Bhandari, supra note 24, at 11-12. 27 See, e.g., David Moher et al., Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis: The PRISMA Statement, 6 PLoS Med. 1, 4-5 (2009), available at http://www.plosmedicine.org/article/info%3Adoi%C2F10.1371% 2Fjournal.pmed.1000097#s4 (systemic reviews and meta analysis); Kenneth F. Schulz, CONSORT 2010 Statement: Updated Guidelines for Reporting Parallel Group Randomized Trials, 152 Annals of Internal Med. 726, 727 (2010), available at http://annals.org/article.aspx? articleid=746833; Erik von Elm et al., The Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) Statement: Guidelines for Reporting Observational Studies, 61 J. Clinical Epidemiology 344, 346-47 (2008), available at http:// download.journals.elsevierhealth.com/pdfs/journals/0895-4356/PIIS0895435607004362.pdf (observational studies including cohort, case-control, and cross-sectional studies). 28 This was the type of scale utilized by Dr. Donohoe in Mark Donohoe. Evidence-Based Medicine and Shaken Baby Syndrome Part 1: Literature Review, 24 Am. J. of Med. Pathology 239, 240-41 (2003), and was heavily relied upon by the dissenting justices in Cavazos v. Smith, as well as by other legal scholars. See Cavazos, 132 S. Ct. 2,10 (2011); Tuerkheimer, supra note 3, at 12-13; See also Molly Gena, Shaken Baby Syndrome: Medical Uncertainty Casts Doubt on Convictions, 3 Wis. L. Rev. 701, 706, 710, 727 (2007). 29 See Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, supra note 18. 30 Id. 31 Id. 32 Bob Phillips et al., Levels of Evidence (March 2009), Oxford Centre for Evidence Based Medicine (Aug. 2, 2013), http:// www.cebm.net/index.aspx? o=1025. 33 See, e.g., Donohoe, supra note 28. 34 See Donohoe, supra note 28, at 240. 35 Bob Phillips et al., supra 32. 36 Mark B. McClellan et al., Evidence-Based Medicine and the Changing Nature of Healthcare, 2007 IOM Annual Meeting Summary, available at http:// www.nap.edu/catalog/12041.html. 37 See Findley et al., supra note 3, at 305-06. 38 Public health advocates, for various reasons, prefer the term “preventable injury.” For the purposes of this paper, and with no intent to diminish the laudable public health reasons for the use of that terminology, we shall use the term “accident,” as it is the more commonly utilized term in the medical literature in comparison to abusive injury. 39 See David L. Chadwick et al., Annual Risk of Death Resulting From Short Falls Among Young Children: Less than 1 in 1 Million, 122 Pediatrics 1213 (2008). 40 Takeo Fujiwara et al., Characteristics That Distinguish Abusive From Nonabusive Head Trauma Among Young Children Who Underwent Head Computed Tomography in Japan, 122 Pediatrics 841, 842-43 (2008). 41 Much as all cancers are not the same, all “short falls” are not the same. Stairway falls, falls from moving objects (such as shopping carts or moving strollers or walkers), or falls involving occipital (back of the head) impact do not entail the same biomechanics as © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 46 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... simple short falls off furniture (such as beds or couches), where typically the frontal or parietal (side) areas of the skull are impacted. The varying biomechanical forces on different anatomic structures (such as the head, the neck, or the torso) in stairway falls, falls from moving objects, or falls with occipital impact warrant their distinction into a separate category than the “simple short fall.” Hereinafter, unless otherwise stated, the literature reviewed pertains to simple short falls. 42 Michael Y. Wang et al., Injuries From Falls in the Pediatric Population: An Analysis of 729 Cases, 36 J. Pediatric Surgery 1528, 1528-29 (2001). 43 John Plunkett, Fatal Pediatric Head Injuries Caused by Short Distance Falls, 22 Am. J. Forensic Med. Pathology 1, 10 (2001); Gregory Reiber, Fatal Falls in Childhood: How Far Must Children Fall to Sustain Fatal Head Injury? Report of Cases and Review of the Literature, 14 Am. J. Forensic Med. Pathology 201, 201 (1993). 44 Chadwick et al., supra note 39 at 1213. 45 See id. at 1213. 46 See, e.g., id. 47 See, e.g., id.; see also S.A. Warrington et al., Accidents and Resulting Injuries in Premobile Infants: Data From the ALSPAC Study, Archives of Disease in Childhood 104, 104 (2001); Julia Wrigley & Joanna Dreby, Fatalities and the Organization of Child Care in the United States, 70 Am. Sociology Rev. 729, 743-49 (2005). 48 See, e.g., id. at 1220. Some of these methodological variances have included variations in short fall definition, variations in inclusion and exclusion criteria of patients, and variations in outcome aspects. 49 This section is not intended to be an exhaustive review of the topic as it is outside the scope and purpose of this paper. For a more thorough review of the topic, see Child Abuse and Neglect: Diagnosis, Treatment, and Evidence 39-48 (C. Jenny et al., eds., 2010); Abusive Head Trauma in Infants and Children: A Medical, Legal, and Forensic Reference (L. Frasier et al. eds., 2006); Child Abuse Medical Diagnosis and Management 53-119 (Robert M. Reece et al. eds., 3d ed. 2009) . 50 Hereinafter, the use of the terms “severe injury” or “serious injury” refer to their meaning within the AIS (Abbreviated Injury Scale). See Abbreviated Injury Scale, Association for the Advancement of Automotive Medicine (Oct. 28, 2012), http://www.aaam1.org/ais/; Abbreviated Injury Scale, TRAUMA.ORG (Oct. 28, 2012), http://www.trauma.org/archive/scores/ais.html. Although it is common, clinically, to incorporate the AIS score into an Injury Severity Score (ISS) when assessing overall trauma to the human body, for the purposes of this article, “severe injury” or “serious injury” will refer to their use within the AIS. Although the AIS dictionary has specific codes for specific head injuries, typically intracranial hemorrhages have scores of either 3 or 4 (3 = serious; 4 = severe) and cerebral edema (brain swelling) has a score of 5 (critical). See Thomas Songer, Measuring Injury Severity (Oct. 28, 2012), available at http://www.pitt.edu/~epi2670/severity/severity.pdf. 51 Suzanne B. Haney et al., Characteristics of Falls and Risk of Injury in Children Younger Than 2 Years, 26 Pediatric Emergency Care 914, 914-15 (2010). Id. at 915. Id. at 917. Id. at 918. S.A. Warrington et al., supra note 47, at 104. Id. at 105. Id. at 104. Id. at 105. Id. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 47 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 60 Id. at 106-07. 61 See Harvey Kravitz et al., Accidental Falls from Elevated Surfaces in Infants from Birth to One Year of Age, 44 Pediatrics 869 (1969); Ray E. Helfer et al., Injuries Resulting from when Small Children Fall Out of Bed, 60 Pediatrics 533 (1977). 62 See Oxford, supra note 18. 63 Certainly, a limitation of the study was that the data was subject to recall inaccuracy or bias. But, there was little concern for intentionally skewed data (as is a concern in suspected AHT cases). 64 Thomas J. Lyons & R. Kim Oates, Falling Out of Bed: A Relatively Benign Occurrence, 92 Pediatrics 125, 126 (1993). 65 Id. at 126. 66 Id. 67 Id. 68 Prasit Nimityongskul & Lewis Anderson, The Likelihood of Injuries When Children Fall Out of Bed, 7 J. Pediatric Orthopedics 184, 184-86 (1987). 69 S. Levene & G. Bonfield, Accidents on Hospital Wards, 66 Archives of Disease in Childhood 1047, 1047-1049 (1991). 70 S. Monson et al., In-Hospital Falls of Newborn Infants: Data From a Multihospital Healthcare System, 122 Pediatrics 227, 278-280 (2008). 71 C. Ruddick et al., Head Trauma Outcomes of Verifiable Falls in Newborn Babies, 95 Archives of Disease in Childhood Fetal Neonatal Ed. 144, 144-45 (2010). 72 P.L. Schaffer et al., Pediatric Inpatient Falls and Injuries: A Descriptive Analysis of Risk Factors, 17 J. Special Pediatric Nursing 10 (2012). 73 One author has asserted that hospital settings may not be “objective,” as there is an equal likelihood for malicious acts by nursing or other staff in hospitals as in any other setting. See J. Ehsani et al., The Role of Epidemiology in Determining if a Simple Short Fall Can Cause Fatal Head Injury in an Infant, 31 Am. J. Forensic Pathology 287, 290 (2010). However, hospital settings are by nature, less private settings, with clear understanding to all within those settings of a diminished level of privacy. Given that abusive acts occur in private settings, it is unreasonable to assume an equal likelihood of abuse in inherently less private/more public settings. 74 Julia Wrigley & Joanna Dreby, Fatalities and the Organization of Child Care in the United States, 70 Am. Sociology Rev. 729, 743-49 (2005). 75 See Chadwick, supra note 39. 76 Id. 77 Id. at 1216. 78 Good et al.'s review found nine deaths in child care centers, but six were attributed to natural causes and three to “unintentional” causes (two asphyxiation and one pedestrian/MVA). See Susan E. Good et al., Children's Deaths at Day-care Facilities, 9 Pediatrics, 1039, 1039-40 (1994). 79 Wrigley & Dreby, supra note 74, at 749. 80 See Chadwick, supra note 39, at 1216. 81 U.S. Department of Education, Child Care and Early Education Arrangements in Infants, Toddlers, and Preschoolers: 2001 (2001), available online at http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2006/2006039.pdf (last visited Sept. 5, 2012). 82 See Chadwick, supra note 39. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 48 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 83 R. A. Williams, Injuries in Infants and Small Children Resulting from Witnessed and Corroborated Free Falls, 31(1) J. Trauma 1350, 1350 (1991). 84 Id. at 1351. 85 Id. 86 Id. 87 Id. 88 See Wrigley & Dreby, supra note 74. 89 Robert M. Reece & Robert Sege, Childhood Head Injuries: Accidental or Inflicted?, 154 Archive Pediatric Adolescent Med. 11, 11 (2000). 90 K. Johnson et al., Accidental Head Injuries in Children Under 5 Years of Age, 60 Clinical Radiology 464, 464 (2005). 91 See Williams, supra note 83, at 1351. 92 David L. Chadwick et al., Deaths from Falls in Children: How Far is Fatal?, 31 J. Trauma 1353, 1353-55 (1991). 93 Id. at 1354. An 11-month-old child was found dead beneath a second story window. Parents were not aware of the child's absence until notified by neighbors who found the child. 94 Id. 95 Id. 96 See Reece & Sege, supra note 89, at 11. 97 See Nicole G. Ibrahim et al., Influence of Age and Fall Type on Head Injuries in Infants and Toddlers, 30 Int'l J. Dev. Neuroscience 201, 201-206 (2012) (proposing that the fall type and age of child are important factors in the resulting injury of a child); see also James A. Murray et al., Pediatric Falls: Is Height a Predictor of Injury and Outcome?, 66 Am. Surgeon 863, 863-865 (2000). 98 See Angela K. Thompson et al., Pediatric Short-Distance Household Falls: Biomechanics and Associated Injury Severity, 43 Accident Analysis Prevention 143, 143 (2011); see also Johnson et al., supra note 90, at 467; Michael Y. Wang et al., Injuries from Falls in the Pediatric Population: An Analysis of 729 Cases, 36 J. Pediatric Surgery 1528, 1528 (2000). 99 A.C. Duhaime et al., Head Injury in Very Young Children: Mechanisms, Injury Types, and Ophthalmologic Findings in 100 Hospitalized Patients Younger than 2 Years of Age, 90 Pediatrics 179, 179 (1992). Id. at 180. Id. Id. Id. at 181. Id. Id. Id. Id. Three of the twenty-six short falls had epidural hemorrhages (EDHs). Id. Of the twenty-one longer falls, six had very focal subarachnoid hemorrhages or brain contusions. Id. All fall children had benign hospital courses. Id. 108 Id. at 182. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 49 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 109 Id. 110 Kirsten Bechtel et al., Characteristics that Distinguish Accidental from Abusive Injury in Hospitalized Young Children with Head Trauma, 114 Pediatrics 165, 165 (2004). See Thompson et al., supra note 98, at 144. Id. at 143. Id. at 144. Id. Id. at 145. These were described as “lacerations” or “contusions.” Id. These were described as “fractures.” Id. These were described as “small isolated SDHs.” Id. at 143. Id. at 149. Id. See Chadwick, supra note 39, at 1213. Id. Id. at 1215-19. Id. at 1214. (“EPIC” stands for Epidemiology and Prevention for Injury Control Branch.) Id. (“WISQRS” stands for Web-based Injury Statistics Query and Reporting System.) Id. See Chadwick, supra note 39, at 1214. Id. Id. Id. at 1213. From Short Falls Among Young Children: Less than 1 in 1 Million, 121 Pediatrics 1213, 1220 (2008). Reprinted with permission. Johnathon P. Ehsani et al., The Role of Epidemiology in Determining if a Simple Short Fall can Cause Fatal Head Injury in an Infant, 31 Am. J. Forensic Med. Pathology 287, 287 (2010). 133 Id. 134 Id. 135 Id. 136 Id. The single case alluded to by the authors is a reported videotaped short fall resulting in death after a brief lucid interval in Plunkett's review of the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission database. See Plunkett, supra note 43, at 4; Ehsani, supra note 131, at 290. 137 See Plunkett, supra note 43, at 1. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 50 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 138 Id. at 2. 139 Id. Since the database is geared towards detection of fatalities related to products, it can miss fatalities not related to products, and is not designed to discriminate false histories related to products (probably including abusive injuries within the data subset). 140 See Chadwick, supra note 39, at 1215. “Nine of the 18 children who died were [older than] 5 years of age. Among the 9 young children, 4 cases were not witnessed at all, even by other children. Of the remaining 5 cases, 1 fall height was estimated at [greater than] 2.0 m. Of the remaining 4 cases, 1 had no autopsy, and the cause of death in that case was uncertain.... With the determination that 3 of the cases were valid, the annual population risk for a short-fall death of a young child in this (playground) sample can be calculated as 3 fatalities/(400 000 x 12) = 0.625 cases per 1 million young children per year.” Id. 141 Matthieu Vinchon et al., Confessed Abuse Versus Witnessed Accidents in Infants: Comparison of Clinical, Radiological, and Ophthalmological Data in Corroborated Cases, 26 Childs Nervous Sys. 637, 642 (2010). 142 See Matthieu Vinchon et al., Accidental and Nonaccidental Head Injuries in Infants: A Prospective Study, 102 J. Neurosurgery 380, 380 (Supp. 2005); Bechtel, supra note 110, at 165. 143 Kent P. Hymel et al., Head Injury Depth as an Indicator of Causes and Mechanisms, 125 Pediatrics 712, 713 (Supp. 2010). 144 Id. 145 Id. at 712-13. 146 Id. at 712. The odds ratio is quite notable in this study. It indicates that the finding of subcortical brain injury is thirty five times more likely to be the result of abuse than accident. The authors also found that subcortical injury (i.e. deeper brain injury) more frequently demonstrated inertial injury and manifested acute respiratory or circulatory compromise. Id. These findings had high statistical significance. Id. 147 See Kent P. Hymel et al., Derivation of a Clinical Prediction Rule for Pediatric Abusive Head Trauma, 14 Pediatric Critical Care Med. 210 (2013). 148 S. Maguire et al., What Clinical Features Distinguish Inflicted from Non-Inflicted Brain Injury? A Systematic Review, 94 Archives Disease Childhood 860, 860 (2009). 149 Id. 150 Id. at 861. 151 Id. at 861, 864. 152 Id. at 864. 153 Id. at 860. 154 Maguire, supra note 147, at 866. “Apnoea” refers to the cessation of breathing (usually defined as longer than twenty seconds in infants). Melissa Scollan-Koliopoulos & John S. Koliopoulos, Evaluation and Management of Apparent Life-Threatening Events in Infants, 36 Pediatric Nursing 77, 77 (March-April 2010). 155 Maguire, supra note 147, at 865. 156 Id. (emphasis added). 157 Id. 158 See generally Scott Denton & Darinka Mileusnic, Delayed Sudden Death in an Infant Following an Accidental Fall: A Case Report with Review of the Literature, 24 Am. J. Forensic Med. & Pathology 371 (2003); Horace B. Gardner, A Witnessed Short Fall Mimicking Presumed Shaken Baby Syndrome (Inflicted Childhood Neurotrauma), 43 Pediatric Neurosurg 433-35 (accepted after revision May 17, 2007);; Patrick E. Lantz & Daniel E. Couture, Fatal Acute Intracranial Injury, Subdural Hematoma, and Retinal © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 51 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... Hemorrhages Caused by Stairway Fall, 56 J. Forensic Sci. 1648 (2011); Patrick D. Barnes et al., Traumatic Spinal Cord Injury: Accidental Versus Nonaccidental Injury, 15 Seminars in Pediatric Neurology 178 (2008). 159 See generally Jan E. Leestma, Case Analysis of Brain-Injured Admittedly Shaken Infants: 54 Cases, 1969-2001, 26 Am. J. Forensic Med. & Pathology 199-211 (2005). 160 Sabine A. Maguire et al., Estimating the Probability of Abusive Head Trauma: A Pooled Analysis, 158 J. Pediatrics 550, 550 (2011). 161 Id. at 550. 162 C.A.B. Clemetson, Elevated Blood Histamine Caused by Vaccinations and Vitamin C Deficiency May Mimic the Shaken Baby Syndrome, 62 Med. Hypothesis 533, 534 (2004); Horace B. Gardner, Immunizations, Retinal and Subdural Hemorrhages: Are They Related?, 64 Med. Hypothesis 663, 663 (2005). 163 Michael O. Gayle et al., Retinal Hemorrhage in the Young Child: A Review of Etiology, Predisposed Conditions, and Clinical Implications, 13 J. of Emergency Med. 233, 237 (1995); Lois K. Lee et al., Intracranial Hemorrhage After Blunt Head Trauma in Children with Bleeding Disorders, 158 J. Pediatrics 1003, 1003 (2011). 164 See Carpenter et al., Technical Report: Evaluating for Suspected Child Abuse: Conditions that Predispose to Bleeding, 131 Pediatrics 1357 (2013), available at http:// pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/131/4/e1357.full.html. 165 Id. at 1368-69. 166 S. S. Acharya et al., Rare Bleeding Disorder Registry: Deficiencies of Factors II, V, VII, X, XII, Fibrinogen and Dysfibrinogenemias, 2 J. of Thrombosis and Haemostasis 248, 249 (2004). 167 Id. at 254-55. 168 See Monagle & Andrew, infra note 171. 169 Acharya, supra note 165, at 249. 170 See Carpenter et al., supra note 163, at 1357. 171 For a more detailed review of congenital bleeding disorders, see id. 172 D. B. Wilson, Acquired Platelet Defects, in Nathan And Oski's Hematology Of Infancy And Childhood 1557 (Stuart H. Orkin et al. eds., 6th ed., 2003); P. Monagle & M. Andrew, Acquired Disorders of Hemostasis, in Nathan And Oski's Hematology Of Infancy And Childhood 1631 (Stuart H. Orkin et al. eds., 6th ed., 2003). 173 Immune Thrombocytopenic Purpura (ITP) is a condition in which the body forms antibodies to the blood platelets, resulting in their destruction. 174 Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation (DIC) results from disordered clotting and bleeding, and this can be secondary to a variety of reasons--overwhelming infection, severe trauma, anaphylaxis, etc. It occurs only in children who are severely ill, and may result in bleeding in any part of the body, including intracranial bleeding. Monagle & Andrew, supra note 171, at 1633-35. 175 Vitamin K Deficiency bleeding (previously known as Hemorrhagic Disease of the Newborn) is a bleeding disorder that occurs most commonly in the newborn/early infancy period. Newborns are born with low levels of vitamin K, an essential factor in blood clotting. Unless provided with intramuscular dose of Vitamin K in the newborn period, young infants can suffer bleeding from mucosal surfaces, bleeding from circumcision, generalized bruising, large intramuscular hemorrhages, and intracranial hemorrhage. Id. at 1635-37. 176 “Coagulopathy” can best be defined as a disorder of the natural hemostasis of the body. Since the liver produces some of the clotting factors needed to clot blood, severe liver dysfunction can result in a “coagulopathy.” 177 Amy A. Hassan & Michael H. Kroll, Acquired Disorders of Platelet Function, Am. Soc'y of Hematology of Educ. Program Book 403, 404-05 (2005). © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 52 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 178 Id. at 403. 179 See Monagle & Andrew, supra note 171, at 1638. 180 Id. 181 Martin J. Shearer, Vitamin K Deficiency Bleeding (VKDB) in Early Infancy, 23 Blood Rev. 49, 50 (2009). 182 Id. at 53. In patients who have already received vitamin K as treatment or transfusion of plasma, measurement of proteins induced by vitamin K absence (PIVKA II) can confirm the diagnosis. 183 Id. at 50-51. 184 Cindy Neunert et al., The American Society of Hematology 2011 Evidence-Based Practice Guidelines for Immune Thrombocytopenia, 117 Blood 4190, 4195 (2011). 185 Alvin Zipursky, Prevention of Vitamin K Deficiency Bleeding in Newborns, 104 Brit. J. Haematology 430, 432-33 (1999). 186 Heather McKay et al., Bleeding Risks Associated with Inheritance of the Quebec Platelet Disorder, 104 Blood 159, 164 (2004). 187 Id. at 164. 188 Pravas Mishra et al., Intracranial Haemorrhage in Patients with Congenital Haemostatic Defects, 14 Haemophilia 952, 952-53 (2008); Marvin D. Nelson Jr. et al., Prevalence and Incidence of Intracranial Haemorrhage in a Population of Children with Haemophilia, 5 Haemophlia 306, 311 (1999); Rachelle Nuss et al., Changes in the Occurrence of and Risk Factors for Hemophilia-Associated Intracranial Hemorrhage, 68 Am. J. Hematology 37, 40 (2001). 189 See Carpenter et al., supra note 163, at 1358-1362. 190 Roshni Kulkarni et al., Sites of Initial Bleeding Episodes, Mode of Delivery and Age of Diagnosis in Babies with Haemophilia Diagnosed Before the Age of 2 Years: A Report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) Universal Data Collection (UDC) project, 15 Haemophilia 1281, 1281 (2009). 191 A.D. Metjian et al., Bleeding Symptoms and Laboratory Correlation in Patients with Severe von Willebrand Disease, 15 Haemophilia 918, 919 (2009). 192 Ideally, the scientific literature would include studies that have systematically compared trauma histories, locations of bleeding, amount of bleeding, clinical presentations and outcomes, and the presence of retinal hemorrhages in children with and without bleeding disorders. However, given the rarity of most bleeding disorders, such studies would be extremely difficult and costly to conduct; as such, no such study exists. 193 A. E. O'Hare & O. B. Eden, Bleeding Disorders and Non-Accidental Injury, 59 Archives of Disease in Childhood 860, 863 (1984); P.G. Scimeca et al., Suspicion of Child Abuse Complicating the Diagnosis of Bleeding Disorders, 13 J. Pediatric Hematology/ Oncology 179 (1996). 194 Jami Jackson et al., Challenges in the Evaluation for Possible Abuse: Presentations of Congenital Bleeding Disorders in Childhood, 36 Child Abuse & Neglect 127, 131 (2012). 195 Id. at 130. 196 Id. at 131. 197 Id. at 133. 198 Id. at 131. 199 Id. 200 Id. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 53 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 201 See Francesco Rodeghiero et al., The Discriminant Power of Bleeding History for the Diagnosis of Type 1 von Willebrand Disease: An International, Multicenter Study, 3 J. Thrombosis & Haemostasis 2619, 2619-20 (2005). Id. at 2624. See Jackson, supra note 193, at 127. See Carpenter, supra note 163, at 1360-61; Jackson, supra note 167, at 128. See Jackson, supra note 193, at 127-28. Id. Id. at 128. See Carpenter, supra note 163, at 1368; Jackson, supra note 193, at 127-28. See Oxford, supra note 18. See Gardner, supra note 161, at 663. Patrick D. Barnes et al., Infant Acute Life-Threatening Event-Dysphagic Choking Versus Nonaccidental Injury, 17 Seminars in Pediatric Neurology 7, 9-10 (2010). 212 See Clemetson, supra note 161, at 535. 213 Where A = a specific bleeding disorder; B = ICH due to bleeding disorder A; P = Probability/Prevalence; and PTP = Pre-test Probability. 214 See Metjain, supra note 190, at 918, 922; W.L. Nichols et al., Von Willebrand Disease (VWD): Evidence-based Diagnosis and Management Guidelines, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Expert Panel Reprot (USA), 14 Haemophilia 171, 179 (2008). 215 Id. at 921. 216 “Parenchymal” bleeding refers to bleeding within the brain matter itself, not outside it like SDH, subarachnoid hemorrhage or epidural hemorrhage. 217 Carpenter et al., Technical Report: Evaluating for Suspected Child Abuse: Conditions that Predispose to Bleeding, Pediatrics (In Press). Used with permission. 218 See Carpenter, supra note 163, at 1360. Due to the method by which these forms of hemophilia are inherited, severe hemophilia is much more common in males than females. 219 See Table 1. 220 W.L. Nichols et al., Von Willebrand Disease (VWD): Evidence-Based Diagnosis and Management Guidelines, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Expert Panel Report (USA), 14 Haemophilia 171, 171 (2008). 221 Id. at 197. 222 Id. at 172. 223 Id. at 179. 224 Id. at 181. 225 Id. at 179-80. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 54 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 226 U.S. Dep't of Health and Human Serv., National Inst. of Health, National Heart Lung and Blood Inst., The Diagnosis, Evaluation, and Management of von Willebrand Disease 2, 32, 41, 49-50 (2007) (stating that repeat testing for VWD may be required because VWF levels may be artificially elevated in times of critical illness). Testing for VWD includes von Willebrand factor (VWF) levels, VWF activity, and Factor 8 levels. 227 Id. at 32. Bleeding symptoms of VWD are generally mild; therefore, it is reasonably assumed by clinicians that there are people with low VWF levels who have not come to medical attention. 228 Id. at 31. 229 Id. at 16. Individuals with bleeding symptoms and VWF levels between 30-50% currently pose a diagnostic dilemma for clinicians. 230 Id. at 1. 231 J. E. Sadler et al., Impact, Diagnosis and Treatment of von Willebrand Disease, 84 J. Thrombosis & Haemostasis 160, 164 (2000). 232 Walid S. Almaani & Abdulla S. Awidi, Spontaneous Intracranial Hemorrhage Secondary to von Willebrand Disease, 26 Surgical Neurology 457, 458 (1986); Kazuo Mizoi et al., Intracranial Hemorrhage Secondary to von Willebrand's Disease and Trauma, 22 Surgical Neurology 495, 498 (1984). 233 Id. 234 See Nichols, supra note 218, at 186-87. 235 See Almaani, supra 230, at 457. 236 Id. at 458. 237 See Mizoi, supra note 230, at 495-98; O. Ziv & M. V. Ragni, Bleeding Manifestations in Males with von Willebrand Disease, 10 Haemophilia 162, 162-68 (2004); T. Delangre et al., Hematome Intracerebral du a Une Forme Attenuee de Maladie de von Willebrand,

¹⁵ La Presse Medicale 1240, 1240-41 (1986); Robert Diecidue et al., Post-Traumatic Hemorrhage in a Patient with Previously Undiagnosed von Willebrand's Disease, 58 J. Oral Maxillofacial Surgery 332, 332-36 (2000); Kristine Slam et al., Common Bleeding Disorders: A Potential Catastrophe for the Trauma Victim. Therapeutic Recommendations for the Treatment of von Willebrand's Disease, 64 J. Trauma 1373, 1373-75 (2008). 238 See Mizoi, supra note 230, at 495. 239 See Martha E. Laposata & Michael Laposata, Children with Signs of Abuse. When is it Not Child Abuse?, 123 Am. J. Clinical Pathology (Supp. 1) 119, 121 (2005). 240 Arne Stray-Pedersen et al., An Infant with Subdural Hematoma and Retinal Hemorrhages: Does von Willebrand Disease Explain the Findings?, 7 Forensic Sci. Med. Pathology 37, 41 (2011). 241 See Mizoi et al., supra note 230; Slam et al., supra note 235. Additionally, the child with documented mild VWD and accidental head trauma was a four year old who suffered an accidental fall with a resulting large subdural hematoma that required surgical drainage. Mizoi et al., supra note 230, at 498. This clinical picture is significantly different from the vast majority of child victims of AHT where the children are less than one year old, immobile, often with no external signs of impact to the head, and with thin, bilateral convexity subdural hematomas. 242 Catherine P. M. Hayward et al., Congenital Platelet Disorders: Overview of Their Mechanisms, Diagnostic Evaluation and Treatment, 12 Haemophilia (Supp. 3) 128, 129 (2006). 243 Id. at 132; Otobia Dimson et al., Hermansky-Pudlak Syndrome, 16 Pediatric Dermatology 475, 475-77 (1999). 244 Emmanuel J. Favaloro, Clinical Utility of the PFA-100, 34 Seminars Thrombosis Hemostasis 709, 709-710 (2008); Hayward et al., supra note 240, at 133. The more specific platelet testing would assess platelet aggregation and secretion. Occasionally, electron microscopic examination or genetic testing is necessary to confirm the diagnosis. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 55 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 245 See Hayward et al., supra note 240, at 132. 246 Id. at 130. 247 Id. 248 Laposata, supra note 237, at 120. 249 See Kzuo Mizoi et al., supra note 230; Slam et al., supra note 200; Joseph Broderick et al., Stroke, 38 Am. Heart Ass'n J. 2001-23 (2007), available at http://stroke.ahajournals.org/content/38/6/2001.full. 250 Giovanni Di Minno et al., Glanzmann's Thrombasthenia (Defective Platelet Integrin aIIb-β3): Proposals for Management Between Evidence and Open Issues, 102 Thrombosis Hematosis 1157, 1158 (2009); Jayanthi Alamelu & Ri Liesner, Modern Management of Severe Platelet Function Disorders, 149 Brit. J. Haematology 813, 813 (2010). 251 Di Minno et al., supra note 248, at 1157-1158; Amaelu & Liesner, supra note 248, at 813. 252 See Hayward et al., supra note 240, at 133; Favaloro, supra note 242, at 709. 253 See Oxford, supra note 18. 254 See Bob Phillips et al., Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine - Levels of Evidence (March 2009), CEBM, http:// www.cebm.net/index.aspx?o=1025 (last edited Jan. 29, 2013). 255 See, e.g., Acharya et al., supra note 165. 256 Isaac Newton, Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica (London, S. Pepys, Reg. Soc. Praeses 1686), available at http:// www.gutenberg.org/files/28233/28233-pdf. 257 See, e.g., Benjamin Crowell, Mechanics 14 (2012), available at http://www.lightandmatter.com/me.pdf. 258 The American Heritage Science Dictionary (Joseph P. Pickett et al. eds., 2005). 259 Susan Margulies & Brittany Coats, Biomechanics of Head Trauma in Infants and Young Children, in Child Abuse and Neglect: Diagnosis, Treatment and Evidence 359, 359 (Carole Jenny ed., 2011). 260 Id.; See also Ramesh Raghupathi & Susan S. Margulies, Traumatic Axonal Injury After Closed Head Injury in the Neonatal Pig, 19 J. Neurotrauma 843 (2002). 261 Margulies & Coats, supra note 257, at 359. 262 Id. 263 Nicole G. Ibrahim et al., Physiological and Pathological Responses to Head Rotations in Toddler Piglets, 27 J. Neurotrauma 1021, 1021 (2010). 264 See Margulies & Coats, supra note 257, at 359. 265 See Carole Jenny, Child Abuse and Neglect: Diagnosis, Treatment and Evidence (Elsevier Saunders 2011). 266 Narang, supra note 10, at 542. 267 See Margulies & Coats, supra note 257, at 359, 362 (citing to works published earlier by Thomas A. Gennarelli and Lawrence E. Thibault). 268 Ann-Christine Duhaime et al., The Shaken Baby Syndrome: A Clinical, Pathological, and Biomechanical Study, 66 J. Neurosurgery 409, 409 (1987). 269 C.Z. Cory & M.D. Jones, Can Shaking Alone Cause Fatal Brain Injury? A Biomechanical Assessment of the Duhaime Shaken Baby Syndrome Model, 43 Med. Sci. & Law 317, 317 (2003). © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 56 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 270 Id. 271 Id. at 317. 272 Cory and Jones also proposed different injury thresholds, which were lower than the Duhaime study. The requirement of the experimenter to select a number, or threshold, at which injury is presumed to have occurred, is a significant weakness of a constructed model study. Id. at 320. 273 D.R. Wolfson et al., Rigid-Body Modeling of Shaken Baby Syndrome, 219 Proc. Inst. Mechanical Engineering (Part H: J. Engineering Med.) 63, 66 (2005). 274 Stephanie A. Eucker et al., Physiological and Histopathological Responses Following Closed Rotational Head Injury Depend on Direction of Head Motion, 227 Experimental Neurology 79, 85 (2011). 275 Mayumi L. Prins et al., Repeated Mild Traumatic Brain Injury: Mechanisms of Cerebral Vulnerability, 30 J. Neurotrauma 30, 35 (2013). 276 See Randy A. Ruppel et al., Critical Mechanisms of Secondary Damage After Inflicted Head Injury in Infants and Children, 13 Neurosurgery Clin. N. Am. 169, 169-82 (2002); Patrick M. Kochanek et al., Biomedical, Cellular, and Molecular Mechanisms in the Evolution of Secondary Damage After Severe Traumatic Brain Injury in Infants and Children: Lessons Learned from the Bedside, 1 Pediatric Critical Care Med. 4, 4-19 (2000). 277 Michael T. Prange et al., Anthropomorphic Simulations of Falls, Shakes and Inflicted Impacts on Infants, 99 J. Neurosurgery 143, 143-50 (2003). 278 Id. 279 Id. at 143. 280 Sébastien Roth et al., Finite Element Analysis of Impact and Shaking Inflicted to a Child, 121 Int'l J. Legal Med. 223, 223-28 (2007). 281 Id. at 224. 282 Id. at 227; see also H. Maxeiner, Detection of Ruptured Cerebral Bridging Veins at Autopsy, 89 Forensic Sci. Int'l 103, 103-10 (1997) (Injury to the bridging veins is believed to be the cause of subdural hematomas in AHT). 283 Limitations of the data in this study include the fact that the authors of the studies did not provide properties for vessels, and modeled the CSF as a solid material. Additionally, they modeled the vein as an elastic spring, which is not rate dependent. 284 Christopher Neil Morison, The Dynamics of Shaken Baby Syndrome (June 2002) (unpublished Ph.D. dissertation, University of Birmingham) (on file with the University of Birmingham Research Archive). 285 Id. at 61. 286 Id. at 82. 287 John W. Finnie et al., Diffuse Neuronal Perikaryal Amyloid Precursor Protein Immunoreactivity in an Ovine Model of Non-Accidental Head Injury (The Shaken Baby Syndrome), 17 J. Clinical Neuroscience 237 (2010). 288 Id. 289 Id. 290 Id. at 238. 291 Id. 292 Catherine Adamsbaum et al., Abusive Head Trauma: Judicial Admissions Highlight Violent and Repetitive Shaking, 126 Pediatrics 546, 546-55 (2010). © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 57 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... Finnie, supra note 285, at 238. Id. Id. Prange, supra note 275, at 149 (emphasis added). “Load tolerance” means the magnitude of applied force necessary to cause injury to biological tissues. Faris A. Bandak, Shaken Baby Syndrome: A Biomechanical Analysis of Injury Mechanisms, 151 Forensic Sci. Int'l 71, 71-79 (2005). Id. at 78. Id. at 71. C. Jenny et al., Injury biomechanics research, 30th International Workshop 129-143 (2002). Duhaime, supra note 266. Bandak, supra note 296, at 76. Id. at 76-78. Id. at 77. See also J. Matthews Duncan, Laboratory Note: On the Tensile Strength of the Fresh Adult Fetus, 2 Br. Med. J. 763, 763-64 (1874); Randal P. Ching et al., Tensile Mechanics of the Developing Cervical Spine, 45 Stapp Car Crash 329, 329-36 (2001); R. Mayer et al., Pediatric Tensile Neck Strength Characteristics Using a Caprine Model, Injury Biomechanics Research, Proceedings of the 27th International Workshop on Human Subjects Biomechanics 87-92 (1999). 306 Bandak, supra note 296, at 79. 307 See Randal P. Ching, supra note 303; R. Mayer et al., supra note 303. 308 N. Rangarajan & T. Shams, Letter to the Editor, 164 Forensic Sci. Int'l 280, 281 (2006). 309 Duncan, supra note 303, at 763. 310 Rangarajan & Shams, supra note 306, at 281. 311 Laura K. Brennan et al., Neck Injuries in Young Pediatric Homicide Victims, 3 J. Neurosurgery Pediatrics 232, 235 (2009) (finding that 71% of children dying of AHT had injuries to the cervical spine or cord). 312 In other words, doing the same mathematics on the same, previously published numbers should yield the same results regardless of who does it. In science, it is an author's burden to describe the experiments in sufficient detail so that they can be repeated by an experienced investigator using only the text of the published paper. 313 Susan Margulies et al., Letter to the Editor: Shaken Baby Syndrome: A Flawed Biomechanical Analysis, 164 Forensic Sci. Int'l 278, 278 (2006). 314 Id. at 278. 315 Id. at 279. 316 Rangarajan & Shams, supra note 306, at 280. 317 Faris A. Bandak, Response to the Letter to the Editor, 164 Forensic Sci. Int'l 282, 282 (2006). 318 Id. at 282. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 58 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 319 This author does not understand what this statement means in a rigorous, mathematical sense. However, because Bandak does not specify even the length or frequency of shaking used in his computations, no scientist will be able to replicate his result. 320 See Cavazos v. Smith, 565 U.S. 1, 5 (2011) (per curiam) (Ginsburg, J., dissenting). 321 A.C. Duhaime et al., Head Injury in Very Young Children: Mechanisms, Injury Types, and Ophthalmologic Findings in 100 Hospitalized Patients Younger Than 2 Years of Age, 90 Pediatrics 179, 182 (1992). 322 Timothy J. Kriewall, Structural, Mechanical, and Material Properties of Fetal Cranial Bone, 142 Am. J. Obstetrics Gynecology 707, 707 (1982); Gregg K. McPherson & Timothy J. Kriewall, The Elastic Modulus of Fetal Cranial Bone: a First Step Towards Understanding of the Biomechanics of Fetal Head Molding, 13 J. Biomechanics 9, 14 (1980); Brittany Coats & Susan S. Margulies, Material Properties of Human Infant Skull and Suture at High Rates, 23 J. Neurotrauma 1222, 1222-32 (2006). 323 See Coats & Margulies, supra note 320. 324 Id. 325 See Kriewall, supra note 320. The “elastic modulus” is a ratio of stress to strain, and is constant for any uniform material. The smaller the elastic modulus, the more readily deformable it is. 326 See Coats & Margulies, supra note 320. 327 Id. 328 The “suture” is the area of incomplete fusion of the cranial bone. It permits growth of the cranial bone and the intracranial structures. Neil K. Kaneshiro, Cranial Sutures, University of Maryland Medical Center Medical Encyclopedia (Feb. 21, 2013), http:// umm.edu/ health/medical/ency/articles/cranial-sutures. 329 See Coats & Margulies, supra note 320. 330 See W. Weber, Experimentelle Untersuchungen zu Schädelbruchverletzungen des Säuglings [Experimental Study of Skull Fractures in Infants], 92 Zeitschrift für Rechtsmedizin 87 (1984); W. Weber, ZurBiomechanischem Fragilität des Säuglingsschädels [Biomechanical Fragility of Skull Fractures in Infants], 94 Zeitschrift für Rechtsmedizin 93 (1985). 331 W. Weber, Experimental Study of Skull Fractures in Infants, supra note 328 at 90. Five cadavers were dropped on each type of flooring surface. Id. Id. at 89-91. Id. at 91. Id. at 90-91. W. Weber, Biomechanical Fragility of Skull Fractures in Infants, supra note 328, at 100. Id. at 94. Id. at 94-95. Id. at 95. See Richard G. Snyder et al., Highway Safety Research Inst., Univ. of Mich., Study of Impact Tolerance Through Free-Fall Investigations: Final Report (1977). 340 Id. at 11-14, 38. 341 Id. at 38, App'x A. 342 Id. at 20, 23-32, 76, 126. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 59 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 343 Id. at 78. 344 Id. 345 Id. at 81. 346 Id. at 120-21. In another study, Snyder et al. abstracted 954 cases of children aged 1-12 years in which fall height, severity of injury, and fall surface (steel or concrete) were known from a database maintained by the FAA of 31,530 adult and child free-falls (fatal and non-fatal). See Richard G. Snyder, Highway Safety Research Inst., Univ. of Mich., Impact Tolerances of Infants and Children in Free-Falls (1970). Of those 954 cases, the authors took 34 cases in which biometric testing of the patient and full characterization of the fall and landing zone could be performed. Id. The LD50 (the height at which roughly 50% die) occurred between 41-50 feet. Id. According to Snyder's data, with lower free falls came lower fatality rates and lower rates of serious or critical injuries. Id. There were no deaths in falls of 0-5 foot free falls onto steel or concrete in this series. Id. 347 Gina E. Bertocci et al., Using Test Dummy Experiments to Investigate Pediatric Injury Risk in Simulated Short-Distance Falls, 157 Archives Pediatrics Adolescent Med. 480, 481-82 (2003). Id. at 482-83. Brittany Coats et al., Parametric Study of Head Impact in the Infant, 51 Stapp Car Crash J. 1, 1-2 (2007). Id. at 5. Id. at 8. Id. at 2, 8, 11. See Lyons & Oates, supra note 64, at 126-27; Helfer, supra note 61, at 534-35; Nimityongskul, supra note 68, at 185-86. Prange, supra note 275, at 144-45. Id. at 145. Id. Id. Angela K. Thompson et al., Assessment of Head Injury Risk Associated with Feet-First Free Falls in 12 Month-Old Children Using an Anthropomorphic Test Device, 66 J. Trauma Infection & Critical Care 1019, 1020 (2009). 359 Id. 360 Id. at 1028. 361 Ernest Deemer et al., Influence of Wet Surfaces and Fall Height on Pediatric Injury Risk in Feet-First Freefalls as Predicted Using a Test Dummy, 27 Med. Engineering & Physics 31, 38 (2005). 362 See Thompson, supra note 98, at 144. Parents or guardians of children selected for case study had the option to allow the investigators to: 1) review the child's medical records; 2) interview the caregiver and review the child's medical records; or 3) investigate the fall scene at the home, interview the caregiver, and review the child's medical records. Id. 363 Id. 364 Id. at 148. 365 Id. 366 Nagarajan Rangarajan et al., Finite Element Model of Ocular Injury in Abusive Head Trauma, 13 J. Am. Ass'n for Pediatric Ophthalmology & Strabismus 364, 365 (2009). © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 60 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 367 Id. at 368. 368 Id. 369 See Sandeep Narang, A Daubert Analysis of Abusive Head Trauma/Shaken Baby Syndrome, 11 Hous. J. Health L. & Pol'y 505, 548-58 (2011). 370 Steven Alex Hans et al., A Finite Element Infant Eye Model to Investigate Retinal Forces in Shaken Baby Syndrome, 247 Graefe's Archive for Clinical & Experimental Ophthalmology 561, 567-68 (2009). 371 Id. at 568. 372 Id. at 568-70. 373 See Susan Margulies et al., What Can We Learn from Computational Model Studies of the Eye?, 13 J. Am. Ass'n for Pediatric Ophthalmology & Strabismus 332, 332 (2009). 374 Id. 375 Id. 376 Brittany Coats et al., Ocular Hemorrhages in Neonatal Porcine Eyes from Single, Rapid Rotational Events, 51 Investigative Opthalmology & Visual Sci. 4792, 4792 (2010). 377 Id. at 4793. 378 Id. at 4794. 379 Finnie, supra note 285, at 237, 239. 380 Oxygen is carried in the blood from the lungs to the body and organs by two main mechanisms. The vast majority of oxygen in the blood is bound to hemoglobin (a protein in red blood cells), with a smaller percentage of oxygen actually dissolved in the blood. 381 Terry R. Des Jardins, Cardiopulmonary Anatomy & Physiology: Essentials for Respiratory Care 211-244 (2002). 382 Id. 383 J.F. Geddes et al., Dural Haemorrhage in Non-Traumatic Infant Deaths: Does it Explain the Bleeding in ‘Shaken Baby Syndrome’?, 29 Neuropathology & Applied Neurobiology 14, 18-19 (2003). 384 See D. G. Talbert, Paroxysmal Cough Injury, Vascular Rupture and ‘Shaken Baby Syndrome’, 64 Med. Hypotheses 8, 8-13 (2005); D. G. Talbert, Dysphagia as a Risk Factor for Sudden Unexplained Death in Infancy, 67 Med. Hypotheses 786 (2006); J.F. Geddes & D.G. Talbert, Paroxysmal Coughing, Subdural and Retinal Bleeding: A Computer Modelling Approach, 32 Neuropathology & Applied Neurobiology 625 (2006); Patrick D. Barnes et al., Infant Acute Life-Threatening Event--Dysphagic Choking Versus Nonaccidental Injury, 17 Seminars in Pediatric Nurology 7 (2010). 385 Evan W. Matshes et al., Shaken Infants Die of Neck Trauma, Not of Brain Trauma, 1 Acad. Forensic Pathology 82, 83-86 (2011). 386 See J.F. Geddes et al., Neuropathology of Inflicted Head Injury in Children I. Patterns of Brain Damage, 124 Brain 1290 (2001); J.F. Geddes et al., Neuropathology of Inflicted Head Injury in Children II. Microscopic Brain Injury in Infants, 124 Brain 1299 (2001); J.F. Geddes et al., supra note 381, at 14. 387 Geddes et al., supra note 384, at 1290. 388 Geddes et al., supra note 384, at 1299. 389 See Geddes et al., supra note 381. 390 See Geddes et al., supra note 384. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 61 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 391 Id. at 1290. 392 The authors identified AHT cases either: 1) by confession; 2) by criminal conviction, with or without the presence of extracranial injuries on the child; 3) by cases without conviction in which unexplained injuries to the rest of the child's body, in addition to head injury, were present; or 4) by cases in which there was a “major discrepancy” between the injury explanation given by the caregiver and “significant injuries” or “the history was developmentally incompatible” with the injury. Id. at 1290-91. 393 See, e.g., Linda Ewing-Cobbs et al., Neuroimaging, Physical, and Developmental Findings After Inflicted and Noninflicted Traumatic Brain Injury in Young Children, 102 Pediatrics 300 (1998); K.W. Feldman et al., The Cause of Infant and Toddler Subdural Hemorrhage: A Prospective Study, 108 Pediatrics 636 (2001); K.P. Hymel et al., Mechanisms, Clinical Presentations, Injuries, and Outcomes from Inflicted Versus Noninflicted Head Trauma During Infancy: Results of a Prospective, Multicentered, Comparative Study, 119 Pediatrics 922 (2007). 394 Geddes et al., supra note 384, at 1291-94. 395 Id. at 1291. Although one case had only a clinical history available for review, the investigators found “sufficient detail to merit [the case's] inclusion in the study.” Id. 396 Id. 397 Id. at 1291-92. 398 Id. 399 Id. at 1292. The authors note that the “thin film” designation was used in post-mortem reports in which the SDHs found were “trivial in terms of quantity of blood.” Id. 400 Id. at 1294. 401 Id. 402 Id. 403 Id. It is important to note that if the author examined the other five subjects without SDH and either four or five of them had RH, then the relationship would no longer be significant by chi square testing (p=0.068 or p=0.209). By not examining all of the eyes of their “control” group, they falsely report significance when the relationship may not be true. Id. at 1295-96. Id. at 1294. Id. at 1292. Id. at 1295-96. Id. at 1294. Id. Id. at 1291-92. Geddes et al., supra note 384, at 1299-1300. Id. “Histology” means the microscopic evaluation of tissue at the cellular level. Histology, Merriam-Webster, http://www.merriam- webster.com/dictionary/histology (last visited Aug. 4, 2013). 414 Geddes et al., supra note 384, at 1300-01. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 62 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 415 Id. at 1299-1302. 416 See Geddes et al., supra note 384, at 1294; Michael W. Johnson et al., Axonal Injury in Young Pediatric Head Trauma: A Comparison Study of ß-Amyloid Precursor Protein (ßAPP) Immunohistochemical Staining in Traumatic and Nontraumatic Deaths, 56 J. Forensic Scis. 1198, 1198 (2011). Geddes et al., supra note 384, at 1300. Id. Id. at 1300-01. Id. at 1302. Id. See id. Id. at 1304. See Geddes et al., supra note 381, at 15. Id. See id. Id. The authors labeled the comparison cases as “cases of classical ‘shaken baby syndrome.”’ Id. See id. Id. at 15, 17-18. Id. at 15. Id. Id. Id. Id. Id. See id. at 15, 17-18. Id. at 19. Id. at 14. See id. at 17. Id. at 19-20. Id. at 19. Id. at 19-20. Johnson et al., supra note 90, at 1199-1200. Id. at 1199. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 63 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 445 Id. 446 Id. at 1201. 447 Id. at 1198. 448 Geddes et al., supra note 384, at 1290-91; Geddes et al., supra note 384, at 1299. 449 See A.C. Duhaime et al., Head Injury in Very Young Children: Mechanisms, Injury Types, and Opthalmologic Findings in 100 Hospitalized Patients Younger than 2 Years of Age, 2 Pediatrics 179 (1992); Linda Ewing-Cobbs et al., Neuroimaging, Physical, and Developmental Findings After Inflicted and Noninflicted Traumatic Brain Injury in Young Children, 102 Pediatrics 300 (1998); K.W. Feldman et al., The Cause of Infant and Toddler Subdural Hemorrhage: A Prospective Study, 108 Pediatrics 636 (2001); K.P. Hymel et al., Mechanisms, Clinical Presentations, Injuries, and Outcomes from Inflicted Versus Noninflicted Head Trauma During Infancy: Results of a Prospective, Multicentered, Comparative Study, 119 Pediatrics 922 (2007); S. Maguire et al., Which Clinical Features Distinguish Inflicted from Non-Inflicted Brain Injury? A Systematic Review, 94 Archives of Disease in Childhood 860, 860-67 (2009). 450 W. Squier, Shaken Baby Syndrome: The Quest for Evidence, 50 Dev. Med. Child 10, 10-14 (2008). 451 Patrick D. Barnes, Imaging of Nonaccidental Injury and the Mimics: Issues and Controversies in the Era of Evidence-Based Medicine, 49 Radiologic Clinics N. Am., 205, 205-29. 452 “Meningitis” indicates an infection or inflammation of the meninges (the outer covering of the brain). Rodrigo Hasbun, Meningitis, Medscape, http://www.emedicine.medscape.com/article/232915-overview (last visited Aug. 4, 2013). 453 “Sepsis” is a potentially deadly condition characterized by whole body inflammation and organ dysfunction, usually caused by an infection. Shankar Santhanam & Russell W. Steele, Pedriatric Sepsis, Medscape, http:// www.emedicine.medscape.com/ article/972559-overview#a0104 (last visisted Aug. 4, 2013). 454 “Pyelonephritis” means infection or inflammation of the kidney. Robert W. Tolan et al., Pediatric Pyelonephritis, Medscape, http:// www.emedicine.medscape.com/article/968028-overview (last visited Aug. 4, 2013). 455 “Intradural” hemorrhage means inside the dura, or not macroscopically apparent on the surface of the brain. See Geddes et al., supra note 433, at 15. 456 See William H. Chase, An Anatomical Study of Subdural Haemorrhage Associated with Tentorial Splitting in the Newborn, 51 Surgery Gynecology Obstetrics 31 (1930). Philip Schwartz & Eardely L. Holland, Birth Injuries of the Newborn: Morphology, Pathogenesis, Clinical Pathology and Prevention (S. Karger ed., 1961). Schwartz reports that intracranial hemorrhage was first described in 1804. Id. Schwartz outlines the continued study of falcine and tentoral hemorrhage (different sections of the dura) in newborns for over 100 years. Id. 457 Id. 458 See Geddes et al., supra note 381. 459 See Schwartz, supra note 454. 460 Id. at 38. 461 Jean Cruveilhier, Paper presented at Confer. a l'occasion de la disrtibution des prix aux eleves sages-femmes de las Maison d'Accouchement del Paris, (June 23, 1831) (Fr.). 462 See Schwartz, supra note 454. 463 See V. J. Rooks et al., Prevalence and Evolution of Intracranial Hemorrhage in Asymptomatic Term Infants, 29 Am. J. Neuroradiology 1082 (2008); E. H. Whitby et al., Frequency and Natural History of Subdural Haemorrhages in Babies and Relation to Obstetric Factors, 362 Lancet 846 (2003). © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 64 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 464 See Cruveilhier, supra note 459; Schwartz, supra, note 454. Of note, when reporting a P-value to three decimal points, any value below 0.0005 is simply reported as 0.000. Thus, a 0.0006 would be reported as 0.001, but 0.0003 would be 0.000. 465 In a subsequent study, Dr. Geddes' colleagues attempted to demonstrate hypoxia-associated SDHs, but utilized a cohort of patients that were fetuses (as premature as twenty-six weeks) and young neonates (the oldest being only nineteen days). See Marta C. Cohen & Irene Scheimberg, Evidence of Occurrence of Intradural and Subdural Hemorrhage in the Perinatal and Neonatal Period in the Context of Hypoxic Ischemic Encephalopathy: an Observational Study from Two Referral Institutions in the United Kingdom, 12 Pediatric Dev. Pathology 169 (2009). 466 Karim T. Rafaat et al., Cranial Computed Tomographic Findings in a Large Group of Children with Drowning: Diagnostic, Prognostic, and Forensic Implications, 9 Pediatric Critical Care Med. 567 (2008). 467 Id. 468 The arrival at the upper limit of 2% is analogous to a “margin of error” in statistics. In statistical analysis, the 2% is the largest outside chance that these findings would be present if the study were large enough to include all possible cases of drowning. 469 Steven B. Taylor et al., Central Nervous System Anoxic-Ischemic Insult in Children Due to Near-Drowning, 156 Pediatric Radiology 641 (1985). 470 Roger W. Byard et al., Lack of Evidence for a Causal Relationship Between Hypoxic-Ischemic Encephalopathy and Subdural Hemorrhage in Fetal Life, Infancy, and Early Childhood, 10 Pediatric Dev. Pathology 348, 348 (2007). 471 M. Hurley et al., Is There a Causal Relationship Between the Hypoxia-Ischaemia Associated with Cardiorespiratory Arrest and Subdural Haematomas? An Observational Study, 83 Brit. J. Radiology 736, 736-37 (2010). 472 Raymond D. Pitetti et al., Prevalence of Retinal Hemorrhages and Child Abuse in Children Who Present with an Apparent Life-Threatening Event, 110 Pediatrics 557 (2002). 473 Id. 474 Amy Odom et al., Prevalence of Retinal Hemorrhages in Pediatric Patients After In-Hospital Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation: A Prospective Study, 99 Pediatrics 861 (1997). 475 Id. 476 Charanjit Kaur et al., Early Response of Neurons and Glial Cells to Hypoxia in the Retina, 47 Investigative Ophthalmology Visual Sci. 1126 (2006) (no RHs in rats with hypoxia of the retina); Taiji Nagaoka et al., The Effect of Nitric Oxide on Retinal Blood Flow During Hypoxia in Cats, 43 Investigative Ophthalmology Visual Sci. 3037 (2002) (decreased retinal blood flow leads to vessel dilation but no RHs in cats). 477 See Talbert, supra note 382. Talbert initially proposed that coordinated coughs could cause a cascade of increased systemic arterial pressure that was beyond the threshold of cerebral blood vessels. Id. This increased blood pressure would then lead to SDH and RH. Id. Talbert identified pertussis (whooping cough) as a “natural experiment” of this phenomenon. Id. 478 See Geddes & Talbert, supra note 382; Findley et al., supra note 3; see also Mudher Al-Adnani et al., Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease and Sudden Infant Death: Mechanisms Behind an Under-Recognized Association, 14 Pediatric Dev. Pathology 53 (2010). 479 See Talbert, supra note 382. 480 D.G. Talbert, Pyloric Stenosis as Cause of a Venous Hypertensive Syndrome Mimicking True Shaken Baby Syndrome, 1 J. Trauma Treatment 1, 5, 8 (2012). 481 D.G. Talbert, Cyclic Vomiting Syndrome: Contribution to Dysphagic Infant Death, 73 Med. 473, 474-77 (2009). 482 See Geddes & Talbert, supra note 382, at 627-29. 483 Id. at 629. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 65 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... See Barnes et al., supra note 382, at 7, 9-10. Id. at 7. Id. at 7-8. Id. at 8. Id. Id. at 10. Id. See Matshes, supra note 383. Id. Id. Id. Id. at 84. Id. Id. at 88. See Geddes & Talbert, supra note 382, at 629. Id. at 630. Thomas v. State, No. 03-07-00646-CR, 2009 WL 1364348, at *1 (Tex. App.--Austin May 14, 2009). Christopher S. Greeley, Letter to the Editor, 17 Seminars Pediatric Neurology 275, 277 (2010). John Galaznik et al., Reply to Greeley et al, 17 Seminars Pediatric Neurology 279 (2010). While the authors reported an acute rib fracture was from CPR, the vignette, as presented in the medical literature, did not mention the presence of a healing rib fracture. See Barnes, supra note 382, at 10. A review of the court transcripts indicates that at least one of the co-authors was clearly aware of the rib fracture. Thomas, 2009 WL 1364348 at *4-5. 504 See Talbert, supra note 382. 505 Div. of Bacterial Diseases, Nat'l Ctr. for Immunization & Respiratory Diseases, Pertussis: Disease Specifics, CDC (May 7, 2012), http:// www.cdc.gov/pertussis/clinical/disease-specifics.html. 506 James D. Cherry, Pertussis in the Preantibiotic and Prevaccine Era, with Emphasis on Adult Pertussis, Clinical Infectious Diseases (Supplement), 107, 107 (1999). 507 Id. at 109. 508 J.N. Marshall, Aphasia and Cerebral Haemorrhage Complicating Whooping-Cough, 23 Glasgow Med. J. 24 (1885). While this is often cited as a case with SDH, the manuscript actually indicates that there was not an SDH, as is often contended there was. 509 Am. Acad. of Pediatrics: Pertussis, in Red Book: 2003 Rep. of the Committee of Infectious Diseases 472 (Pickering ed., 2003), available at http://www.aapredbook.aappublications.org/cgi/content/full/2003/1/3.9. 510 Id. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 66 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 511 Id. 512 Ana I. Curcoy et al., Is Pertussis in Infants a Potential Cause of Retinal Haemorrhages?, 97 Arch. Dis. Child. 239 (2012). 513 Michael Goldman et al., Severe Cough and Retinal Hemorrhage in Infants and Young Children, 148 J. Pediatrics 835. 836 (2006). 514 Sandra Herr et al., Does Valsalva Retinopathy Occur in Infants? An Initial Investigation in Infants with Vomiting Caused by Pyloric Stenosis, 113 Pediatrics 1658 (2004). 515 See generally Matshes, supra note 383. In fact, some cases were included if neck hyperflexion/hyperextension was merely suspected. Id. at 83. 516 Id. at 87. 517 See Bob Phillips et al., Oxford Centre for Evidence-based Medicine Levels of Evidence (2009), available at http://www.cebm.net/ index.aspx?o=4590. 518 Learned Hand, Historical and Practical Considerations Regarding Expert Testimony, 15 Harv. L. Rev., 40, 50 (1901) (emphasis added). 519 In his writings, Judge Hand argued for the existence of “competent tribunal” or “a single expert,” not called by either side, “who have possessed themselves the specialized experience” and “trained powers of observation,” to “advise the jury of the general propositions applicable to the case.” See id. at 55-56. 520 Frye v. United States, 293 F. 1013 (D.C. Cir. 1923). 521 The Frye “general acceptance” test remains the rule governing admissibility of scientific expert testimony in several states, including California, Florida, Illinois, Kansas, Maryland, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and Washington. Alice Lustre, Post-Daubert Standards of Admissibility of Scientific and Other Expert Evidence in State Courts, 90 A.L.R. 5th 453, §§ 28-43 (2001). Fed. R. Evid. 702. Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 509 U.S. 579, 590 (1993). Id. at 590-91, n.9. 1) Falsifiability; 2) Peer review and publication; 3) Known or potential rate of error; and, 4) General acceptance. Id. at 593-94. General Electric Co. v. Joiner, 522 U.S. 136 (1997). Kumho Tire Co. v. Carmichael, 526 U.S. 137 (1999). See Joiner, supra note 524, at 146. See Kumho, supra note 525, at 157. While the gatekeeper must also assess relevance and potential 403(b) objections, our analysis will focus on these three legal questions. See United States v. Addison, 498 F.2d 741, 744 (1974) (The Court stated, “scientific proof may in some instances assume a posture of mystic infallibility in the eyes of a jury of laymen.”). See also J.W. Strong, Language and Logic in Expert Testimony: Limiting Expert Testimony by Restrictions of Function, Liability, and Form, 71 Or. L. Rev. 349, 367, n.81 (1992) (“There is virtual unanimity among courts and commentators that evidence perceived by jurors to be ‘scientific’ in nature will have particularly persuasive effect”); Neil Vidmar & Shari S. Diamond, Juries and Expert Evidence, 66 Brook. L. Rev. 1121, 1125 (2000) (quoting an amicus brief filed on behalf of the defendant in Kumho Tire Co. Ltd. v. Carmichael, 526 U.S. 137 (1999), “[Because of the ‘aura of infallibility’], even when jurors have a ‘basis for questioning the expert's reliability [they] may be disinclined to do so.”’). 532 See generally, Vidmar & Diamond, supra note 529, at 1140-49. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 67 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 533 Edward Imwinkelried, Shaken Baby Syndrome: A Genuine Battle of the Scientific (and Non-Scientific) Experts, 46 Crim. L. Bull. 156, 186-87 (2010) (The author asserts that proponents of the syndrome primarily rest their support upon the “admissions by caretakers” in Caffey's 1974 article and on the “experience” of “forensic pathologists.”). 534 Id. at 184. 535 Id. at 188. 536 Daubert, 509 U.S. at 590. 537 William Stead & John Starmer, Beyond Expert-Based Practice, Evidence-Based Medicine and the Changing Nature of Health Care: 2007 IOM Annual Meeting Summary 94 (Inst. of Med., Mark McClellan et al. eds., 2008). 538 Id. 539 See State v. Sanchez-Cruz, 33 P.3d 1037, 1042 (Or. Ct. App. 2001) (emphasis in original) (citing Jennings v. Baxter Healthcare Corp., 14 P. 3d 596, 606 (Or. 2000). 540 Brief of the Am. Med. Assoc. et al., as Amici Curiae Supporting Respondents at 4, Daubert v. Merrel Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 951 F.2d 1128 (9th Cir. 1991) (No. 90-55397), 1993 WL 13006285 (emphasis added). 541 See Daubert, 509 U.S. at 590 (emphasis added). 542 See State v. McMullen, 900 A.2d 103, 114-15 (Del. Super. Ct. 2006). 543 See id. at 116-19; see generally McClellan et al., supra note 36, at 94. This is to be distinguished from “differential etiology,” which is a “legal invention not used by physicians.” John B. Wong et al., Fed Judicial Ctr., Reference Guide on Medical Testimony, in Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence 691 (3rd ed. 2011) available at http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php? record_id=13163&page=R1. 544 See Daubert, 509 U.S. at 590, 593. 545 Narang, supra note 10, at 539-40, 583. 546 See Committee on Identifying the Needs of the Forensic Sciences Community, Nat'l Research Council, Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward 112 (2009), available at http:// www.nap.edu/catalog/12589.html. 547 See Findley et al., supra note 3, at 218-20. 548 Anectodal Definition, Merriam-Webster.com, http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/anecdotal (defining “anecdotal evidence” as “based on or consisting of reports or observations of usually unscientific observers”). See David H. Kaye & David A. Freedman, Fed. Judicial Ctr., Reference Guide on Statistics, Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence 90-92 (2nd ed. 2000). 549 See Finnie et al., supra note 285. 550 See supra Part V, Biomechanics. 551 Catherine Adamsbaum et al., Abusive Head Trauma: Judicial Admissions Highlight Violent and Repetitive Shaking, 126 Pediatrics 553-54. (2010). 552 Suzanne P. Starling et al., Analysis of Perpetrator Admissions to Inflicted Traumatic Brain Injury in Children, 158 Archives Pediatric Adolescence Med. 457 (2004); Erica Bell et al., Abusive Head Trauma: A Perpetrator Confesses, 35 Child Abuse & Neglect 74-77 (2011). 553 Anchoring Bias in Decision-Making, ScienceDaily.com, http:// www.sciencedaily.com/articles/a/anchoring.htm (“During normal decision making, individuals anchor, or overly rely, on specific information or a specific value and then adjust to that value to account for other elements of the circumstance.”). 554 See McMullen, 900 A.2d at 114 (stating, “Because the objectives, functions, subject matter and methodology, of hard science vary significantly from those of the discipline of clinical medicine, as distinguished from research or laboratory medicine, the hard science © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 68 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... techniques or methods that became the ‘Daubert factors' generally are not appropriate for assessing the evidentiary reliability of a proffer of expert clinical medical testimony.”). 555 See Daubert, 509 U.S. at 594-95 (emphasis added). 556 See Narang, supra note 10, at 583-84. 557 Edward Imwinkelried, The “Bases” of Expert Testimony: The Syllogistic Structure of Scientific Testimony, 67 N.C. L. Rev. 1, 2-3 (1988) (emphasis added); see also Hand, supra note 516, at 51-52 (describing expert testimony as the application of the “major premise” to the “minor premise”). 558 See Breyer, supra note 8, at 4. 559 See Hamilton, supra note 4; Imwinkelried, supra note 555 at 14 n.105 (quoting State v. Hyatt, No. O6MJ-CR00016-02 (Mo. Cir. Ct. Nov. 6, 2007) (“[I]n an unpublished order, the trial judge found that the prosecution had not met its burden of proving that shaken baby syndrome is generally accepted in the scientific and medical circles.”). 560 Sophia Gatowski et al., Asking the Gatekeepers: A National Survey of Judges on Judging Expert Evidence in a Post-Daubert World, 25 Law & Human Behavior 433, 444-47 (2001). 561 See Findley et al., supra note 3, at 286-87 (in discussing the scientific literature, the authors state, “[e]ven if the causes were accurately classified, however, this measure [the P-value] provides no indication of the strength of the correlation for it does not distinguish between weak correlations ... and strong ones.... Yet the strength of the correlation is precisely what is needed to satisfy fact finding requirements in criminal cases, which requires proof beyond a reasonable doubt. Statistical significance is necessary but not sufficient to support this evidentiary standard.”) (emphasis added). 562 See Tuerkheimer, supra note 3, at 11. 563 Id. at 12. 564 Id. at 14. 565 See Molly Gena, Shaken Baby Syndrome: Medical Uncertainty Casts Doubt on Convictions, 3 Wisc. L. Rev. 701, 701-727 (2007); Matthew D. Ramsey, A Nuts and Bolts Approach to Litigating the Shaken Baby or Shaken Impact Syndrome, 188 Military L. Rev. 1, 1 (2006). 566 See Findley et al., supra note 3; Imwinkelried, supra note 555. 567 See Cavazos, 565 U.S. 132 (2011). 568 See Narang, supra note 10, at 596-627. 569 See generally id. at 541-60. 570 Id. at 576-88. 571 See Tuerkheimer, supra note 3, at 12-13 n.79 (quoting Patrick D. Barnes, Imaging of the Central Nervous System in Suspected or Alleged Nonaccidental Injury, Including the Mimics, 18 Topics Magnetic Resonance Imaging 53, 55 (2007). 572 See Findley et al., supra note 3, at 296. 573 See Tuerkheimer, supra note 3, at 12-13. 574 See Findley et al., supra note 3, at 286-88. 575 See Tuerkheimer, supra note 3, at 14. 576 See Findley et al., supra note 3, at 242. 577 Id. at 289. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 69 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 578 Rebecca Crosier, Shaken Baby Syndrome, Shaken Baby Syndrome, http://neurowiki2012.wikispaces.com/Shaken+Baby+Syndrome. (discussing in Part 2.2 and 2.3 alternative causes of SDH and RH and the need for medical professionals to be careful in a diagnosis of SBS). 579 See Narang, supra note 10, at 548, 559, 571, 579, 595. 580 See Findley et al., supra note 3, at 303 (“In arguing admissibility under Daubert, moreover, it is unclear what Dr. Narang believes should be admitted. Evidence that some brain injuries in children are of traumatic origin, sometimes even intentionally inflicted? Evidence that subdural hematomas and retinal hemorrhages are seen in cases of inflicted abuse? Evidence that shaking can cause the triad and can lead to injury or death? Evidence that subdural hematomas and retinal hemorrhages are diagnostic of shaking or abuse in the absence of a major motor vehicle accident, fall from a multistory building or other proven alternative? Some of these questions are not controversial ....”). 581 C. Hobbs et al., Subdural Haematoma and Effusion in Infancy: An Epidemiological Study, 90 Archives Disease Childhood 952, 954 (2005); Victoria Trenchs et al., Subdural Haematomas and Physical Abuse in the First Two Years of Life, 43 Pediatric Neurosurgery 352, 352-53, 356 (2007); Dimitra Tzioumi & R. Kim Oates, Subdural Hematomas in Children Under 2 Years. Accidental or Inflicted? A 10-Year Experience, 22 Child Abuse & Neglect 1105, 1106-07 (1998). 582 Kenneth W. Feldman et al., The Cause of Infant and Toddler Subdural Hemorrhage: A Prospective Study, 108 Pediatrics 636, 638 (2001) (finding that 59% of trauma SDHs were “intentional,” but only 23% were “accidental'); Jakob Matschke et al., Nonaccidental Head Injury is the Most Common Cause of Subdural Bleeding in Infants < 1 Year of Age, 124 Pediatrics 1587, 1594 (2009) (finding that 93% of trauma SDHs were “non-accidental” and only 7% were “accidental”); Hobbs et al., supra note 579 at 953 (finding that 94% of trauma SDHs were “non-accidental” and only 6% were “accidental”). 583 Ann-Christine Duhaime et al., Head Injury in Very Young Children: Mechanisms, Injury Types, and Ophthalmologic Findings in 100 Hospitalized Patients Younger than 2 Years of Age, 90 Pediatrics 179, 183 (1992); Kirsten Bechtel, et al., Characteristics that Distinguish Accidental from Abusive Injury in Hospitalized Young Children with Head Trauma, 114 Pediatrics 165, 165, 168 (2004); Matthieu Vinchon et al., Confessed Abuse Versus Witnessed Accidents in Infants: Comparison of Clinical, Radiological, and Ophthalmological Data in Corroborated Cases, 26 Child's Nervous Sys. 637, 638-39 (2010); Kent P. Hymel et al., Mechanisms, Clinical Presentations, Injuries, and Outcomes from Inflicted Versus Noninflicted Head Trauma during Infancy: Results of a Prospective, Multicentered, Comparative Study, 119 Pediatrics 922, 922 (2007); K. Hymel et al., Head Injury Depth as an Indicator of Causes and Mechanisms, 125 Pediatrics 712, 715-18 (2010). 584 Id. 585 See Matthieu Vinchon et al., Accidental and Nonaccidental Head Injuries in Infants: A Prospective Study, 102 J. Neurosurgery: Pediatrics 380, 380-81 (2005); Hymel et al., supra note 581; S. Maguire, Which Clinical Features Distinguish Inflicted from Non-Inflicted Brain Injury? A Systematic Review, 94 Archives Disease Childhood 860, 860 (2009); Gaurav Bhardwaj et al., A Systematic Review of the Diagnostic Accuracy of Ocular Signs in Pediatric Abusive Head Trauma, 117 Ophthalmology 983, 987 (2010); Shruti Agrawal et al., Prevalence of Retinal Hemorrhages in Critically Ill Children, 6 Pediatrics 129, 1388-96 (2012). 586 Joeli Hettler & David S. Greenes, Can the Initial History Predict Whether a Child with a Head Injury has been Abused?, 111 Pediatrics 602, 602 (2003); Duhaime et al., supra note 581; Heather T. Keenan et al., Child Outcomes and Family Characteristics 1 Year After Severe Inflicted or Noninflicted Traumatic Brain Injury, 117 Pediatrics 317, 317 (2006). 587 See Narang, supra note 10, at 541-61. 588 See id. 589 See id. 590 See Findley et al., supra note 3, at 274-75. 591 Id. at 286-90. 592 See supra Part 3. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 70 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 593 Id. 594 Id. 595 See supra Part 4. 596 See supra Part 5. 597 Id. 598 Id. 599 See supra Part 6; see also Narang, supra note 10, at 563-68. But see Irene Scheimberg et al., Non-Traumatic Intradural and Subdural Hemorrhage and Hypoxic Ischaemic Encephalopathy in Fetuses, Infants and Children Up to 3 Years of Age. Analysis of Two Audits of 636 Cases From Two Referral Centers in the UK, 16 Pediatric & Dev. Pathology 149 (2013). 600 See supra Part 6; Ana Isabel Curcoy et al., Retinal Hemorrhages and Apparent Life-Threatening Events, 26 Pediatric Emergency Care 118 (2010); Raymond D. Pitetti et al., Prevalence of Retinal Hemorrhages and Child Abuse in Children Who Present With an Apparent Life-Threatening Event, 110 Pediatrics 557 (2002); Amy Odom et al., Prevalence of Retinal Hemorrhages in Pediatric Patients After In-Hospital Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation: A Prospective Study, 99 Pediatrics e3 (1997); Charanjit Kaur et al., Early Response of Neurons and Glial Cells to Hypoxia in the Retina, 47 Investigative Ophthalmology & Visual Sci. 1126 (2006); Taiji Nagaoka et al., The Effect of Nitric Oxide on Retinal Blood Flow During Hypoxia in Cats, 43 Investigative Ophthalmology & Visual Sci. 3037 (2002). 601 See supra Part 6; see also Narang, supra note 10, at 505, 588-89; Michael Goldman et al., Severe Cough and Retinal Hemorrhage in Infants and Young Children, 148 J. Pediatrics 835 (2006); Sandra Herr et al., Does Valsalva Retinopathy Occur in Infants? An Initial Investigation in Infants With Vomiting Caused by Pyloric Stenosis, 113 Pediatrics 1658 (2004). 602 Narang, supra note 10, at 574-76. 603 See Findley et al., supra note 3, at 274. The critics have also lodged complaints of “observer bias” and “interpretive errors.” However, these relate more to the “minor premise” and, thus, will be discussed in further detail below. 604 See Tuerkheimer, supra note 3, at 13. 605 See Findley et al., supra note 3, at 274. 606 “Circularity” is the logical fallacy in which the manner of proposing a question presumes an answer. For example, assume that scientists wished to prove that a pro sports team can win more games by hiring athletes who have, themselves, won many games. Using a single season's data, they compute the number of times each athlete has won or lost; they then compare these results to the number of times each team has won or lost. The design is clearly invalid--when a team wins, all its players win as well. The predictor variable (number of games the athlete has won) is simply a proxy for the variable being predicted. Consequently, a circular study tends to overstate the strength of an association. 607 See Narang, supra note 10, at 561-62. 608 See Am. Acad. of Pediatrics, Inflicted Childhood Neurotrauma: Proceedings of a Conference Sponsored by Department of Health and Human Services, National Institute of Health, National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, Office of Rare Disease, and National Center for Medical Rehabilitation Research (Robert M. Reece & Carol E. Nicholson eds., 2003). 609 See Duhaime, supra note 581; Hymel, supra note 581. 610 See Vinchon, supra note 442. 611 See Narang, supra note 10, at 523-29. 612 See supra Part 3 A-B; see also M. Shah et al., Motor Vehicle Crash Brain Injury in Infants and Toddlers: A Suitable Model for Inflicted Head Injury?, 29 Child Abuse & Neglect 953, 954 (2005); Feldman et al., supra note 580, at 636; Hobbs et al., supra note © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 71 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 579, at 953; Tzioumi & Oates, supra note 579, at 1105; J. Urban et al., Motor Vehicle Crash-Related Subdural Hematoma From Real- World Head Impact Data, 29 J. Neurotrauma 2774, 2774 (2012). See Feldman et al., supra note 580, at 638; Matschke et al., supra note 580, at 1587. See Narang, supra note 10, at 628. Id. at 596-627. See Findley et al., supra note 3, at 274-80. See Chadwick, supra note 39, at 1213. See generally Kravitz, Williams, Helfer, Lyons, Nimityongskul, Levene, Ruddick, Schaeffer, supra notes 61-72. See Finnie et al., supra note 285, at 237-38. See supra Biomechanics, at 33-45. See Narang, supra note 10, at 551 (citing Amy Odom et al., Prevalence of Retinal Hemorrhages in Pediatric Patients After In-Hospital Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation: A Prospective Study, 99 Pediatrics 4 (June 1997)). 622 See Findley et al., supra note 3, at 296. 623 Stedman's Medical Dictionary (28th ed. 2006). 624 See Wong et al., supra note 541, at 690-91. 625 See Bland v. Verizon Wireless, L.L.C., 538 F.3d 893, 897 (8th Cir. 2008) (stating that “a ‘differential diagnosis [is] a technique that identifies the cause of a medical condition by eliminating the likely causes until the most probable cause is isolated.”’); Wilson v. Taser Int'l, Inc. 303 Fed. App'x 708, 714 (11th Cir. 2008) (“[N]onetheless, Dr. Meier did not perform a differential diagnosis or any tests on Wilson to rule out osteoporosis and these corresponding alternative mechanisms of injury. Although a medical expert need not rule out every possible alternative in order to form an opinion on causation, expert opinion testimony is properly excluded as unreliable if the doctor ‘engaged in very few standard diagnostic techniques by which doctors normally rule out alternative causes ....”). 626 Feit v. Great West Life & Annuity Ins. Co., 271 Fed. App'x 246, 254 (3d Cir. 2008) (“[A]lthough this Court generally recognizes differential diagnosis as a reliable methodology, the differential diagnosis must be properly performed in order to be reliable. To properly perform a differential diagnosis, an expert must perform two steps: (1) ‘Rule in’ all possible causes of Dr. Feit's death and (2) ‘Rule out’ causes through a process of elimination whereby the last remaining potential cause is deemed the most likely cause of death.”) (citations omitted). 627 See Wong et al., supra note 541, at 691. 628 See Jerome P. Kassirer et al., Learning Clinical Reasoning (2d ed. 2009) (“Bayesian analysis assembles a complete set of diagnostic hypotheses that can explain a given set of clinical findings. For each hypothesis, a set of relevant attributes is identified (historical findings, physical findings, complications, predisposing factors, laboratory results) that might help discriminate among the diagnoses. The prior probability of each diagnostic hypothesis is specified numerically, as is the probability that each attribute is found in each disease entity. Then, a calculation is made of the likelihood of each disease entity given the disease prevalence and the probability of each clinical attribute.”). Although physician reasoning does not exclusively proceed in a Bayesian fashion, physicians do frequently rely on Bayesian reasoning (combining disease prevalence with their knowledge of frequency of signs and symptoms in a given disease) in the diagnostic process. See also Wong et al., supra note 541 at 708. 629 See J. Kassirer & F. Sonnenberg, The Scientific Basis of Diagnosis, in Textbook of Internal Medicine (W.N. Kelley ed., 1989); see also A. Elstein & A. Schwartz, Clinical Problem Solving and Diagnostic Decision Making: Selective Review of the Cognitive Literature, 324 Brit. Med. J. 729, 730 (2002). 630 See Wong et al., supra note 541, at 705-06. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 72 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 631 Id. at 705. 632 Id. at 706. The process of hypothesis refinement is an “evolving, sequential process of data gathering and interpretation.” See Kassirer et al., supra note 519, at 5-6. 633 See Kassirer et al., supra note 626, at 5-6. Probabilistic reasoning is Bayesian-type reasoning where prior probabilities of diseases are considered and combined with a physician's knowledge of the frequency of signs and symptoms in a given disease and the probabilities of specific test information. These assist the physician in a probabilistic assessment of the most likely hypothesis. Causal reasoning is a “function of the anatomical, physiological and biochemical mechanisms that operate in normally in the human body and the pathophysiologic behavior of these mechanisms in disease.” In assessing causality, physicians use any reliable data, no matter the source. Additionally, temporal proximity can be a potent factor in assessing causation. See J Kassirer & J Cecil, Inconsistency in Evidentiary Standards for Medical Testimony: Disorder in the Courts, 288 J. Am. Med. Ass'n 1382, 1384 (Sep. 18, 2002). 634 “Adequacy” is when the remaining working hypothesis reasonably accounts for all the patient's findings, both normal and abnormal. “Coherency” is when the patient's findings are consistent with the altered pathophysiology of the hypothesized disease. “Parsimony” is the simplest explanation for all of the patient's findings. See Wong et al., supra note 541, at 706-07; see also Kassirer et al., supra note 626, at 5-6. 635 E. Imwinkelried, The Admissibility and Legal Sufficiency of Testimony About Differential Diagnosis (Etiology): Of Under-and Over-Estimations, 56 Baylor L. Rev. 391, 392 (2004). 636 See generally Narang, supra note 10, at 628-29. 637 Id. at 573. 638 See Imwinkelried, supra note 633, at 392. 639 Id. 640 See Best v. Lowe's Home Ctrs. Inc., 563 F.3d 171, 178, 183-84 (6th Cir. 2009) (stating a differential diagnosis can be adequate grounds for a causation opinion under Daubert); Hyman & Armstrong, P.S.C. v. Gunderson, 279 S.W.3d 93, 107 (Ky. 2008); Westberry v. Gislaved Gummi AB, 178 F.3d 257, 263 (4th Cir. 1999). 641 See Gunderson, 279 S.W.3d at 107 (citing Globetti v. Sandoz Pharms. Corp., 111 F.Supp.2d 1174, 1177 (N.D. Ala. 2000)). 642 See State v. McMullen, 900 A.2d at 118 (holding that testimony of two state medical experts regarding Pediatric Condition Falsification was sufficiently relevant and reliable under Daubert when those experts “soundly performed” their differential diagnosis); State v. Edwards, 2011 WL 1378927 at *3 (Ohio Ct. App. April 13, 2011) (holding that the trial court did not abuse its discretion when it concluded expert testimony on AHT/SBS was reliable under Daubert; the court stated that “differential diagnosis is a standard scientific method for determining causation”); State v. Carr, 2010 WL 2473337 at *6 (Ohio Ct. App. June 18, 2010) (stating that “[t]he process of isolating the cause of a patient's injuries through the methodical elimination of other potential causes, called differential diagnosis, is a standard scientific method for determining causation,” and expert testimony based upon such was reliable under Daubert); Overton v. State, 2009 WL 3489844 at *46 (Tex. App.--Corpus Christi October 29, 2009) (holding that trial court did not abuse its discretion in finding expert testimony opining that a child died of “non-accidental hypernatremia” reliable under Daubert when that expert based his opinion on “the widely accepted practice of differential diagnosis”). 643 See National Research Council, supra note 412, at 4. Although clinical medicine is not considered a classic forensic discipline (such as fingerprint identification, forensic pathology, or bite-mark identification), there are aspects of clinical medicine, such as child abuse pediatrics, that have direct forensic applications. Thus, the concerns raised by the NRC are, at least, tangently relevant to the methodologies employed by child abuse pediatricians. 644 See Imwinkelried, supra note 633, at 392. 645 Id. at 393. 646 Id. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 73 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 647 See Kassirer et al., supra note 626. 648 See Imwinkelried, supra note 633, at 420 (citing Clausen v. M/V New Carissa, 156 F. Supp. 2d 1192, 1194-95 (D. Or. 2001) (utilizing expert description of process-of-elimination reasoning to determine whether an oil spill caused the death of oysters in a commercial farm)). 649 Id. (citing Karl Popper, The Logic of Scientific Discovery 22 (1959)). 650 See Findley et al., supra note 3, at 286-90. 651 See National Research Council, supra note 544, at 4-9. 652 Id. at 185. 653 Id. at 8-9 (citing P.C. Giannelli, Wrongful Convictions and Forensic Science: The Need to Regulate Crime Labs, 86 N.C. L. Rev. 163, 220-22 (2007)). 654 Id. at 6, 8, 19-20. 655 Id. at 119-20; see also Narang, supra note 10, at 538. 656 See National Research Council, supra note 544, at 120. 657 See Narang, supra note 10, at 538 (“‘Sensitivity’[, or the “true positive rate” (TPR) of a particular test,] is ‘the probability that a test for a disease will give a positive result’ when the patient actually has the disease. Put simply, it is actually the chance the condition will be found by the test.”). 658 Id. (“‘Specificity’ [or the “true negative rate” (TNR) of a particular test,] is ‘the probability that a test for disease will give a negative result when the patient does not have the disease.’ Put simply, it is the chance that someone without the disease will actually have a negative test.”). 659 See Narang, supra note 10, at 538-58. 660 Daniel Kahneman, Lecture at the Princeton University Dep't of Psychology: Maps of Bounded Rationality: A Perspective on Intuitive Judgment and Choice, 449 (Dec. 8, 2002), available at http://nobelprize.org/nobel_ prizes/economics/laureates/2002/kahneman- lecture.pdf. 661 Id. at 450-51. 662 Id. at 450. 663 Id. 664 Id. at 452, 455. 665 See Kassirer, supra notes 626 and 627. 666 See Kahneman, supra note 658, at 455. 667 Id. at 465; see also Arthur Elstein & Alan Schwartz, Clinical Problem Solving and Diagnostic Decision Making: Selective Review of the Cognitive Literature, 324 Brit. Med. J. 729 (2002). 668 Kahneman, supra note 658, at 465. 669 Id. (citing Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, 185 Sci. 1124-31 (1974)). 670 Kahneman, supra note 658, at 450. 671 Id. at 473. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 74 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... Id. at 455-56 (emphasis added). Id. at 473 (citations omitted). Id. at 465. See Elstein & Schwartz, supra note 665, at 731. See Narang, supra note 10, at 579. Kahneman, supra note 658, at 482. See Elstein & Schwartz, supra note 665, at 731-32. Id. at 731. Id. at 729-31. Narang, supra note 10, at 571-74. Findley et al., supra note 3, at 281. Am. Psychiatric Ass'n, Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders 589 (4th ed., text revision 2000). Id. at 590. Id. at 592. Id. at 593-94. “Individuals whose binge-eating behavior occurs only during Anorexia Nervosa are given the diagnosis Anorexia Nervosa, Binge-Eating/Purging Type, and should not be given the additional diagnosis of Bulimia Nervosa.” Id. at 593 (emphasis in original). However, in certain neurological or other general medical conditions, if the full criteria for Bulimia Nervosa is also met, both diagnoses can be given. Id. 688 Many critics lump AHT/SBS cases into “triad” cases (SDH, RH, and cerebral edema). However, this is over-simplistic and inaccurate. While, certainly, a small percentage of AHT/SBS cases contain only these findings, in many other cases there are other important findings that physicians must account for in the unifying diagnosis. 689 It is important to note at this point that, for the purposes of simplicity in this example, the determination of the medical findings is not disputed, as can be in real-life circumstances. For example, whether a radiographic finding represents a true fracture or is a normal variant of the human body or some other explanation is another consideration in medical decision making that must be made and involves training, experience, and ongoing literature review. Narang, supra note 10, at 628-29. See Reece, supra note 609, at 148-49. Id. at 103. See Kassirer, supra notes 626-27. See R. Behrman, Nelson's Textbook of Pediatrics (17th ed. 2004). See supra Part 4.D. See supra Table 1. Id. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 75 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 698 Christopher J. Hobbs et al., Subdural Haematoma and Effusion in Infancy: An Epidemiological Study, 90 Arch. Dis. Child 952, 952 (2005); Heather T. Keenan et al., A Population-Based Study of Inflicted Traumatic Brain Injury in Young Children, 290 J. Am. Med. Ass'n 621, 621 (2003); Katherine D. Ellingson et al., Using Hospital Discharge Data to Track Inflicted Traumatic Brain Injury, 34 Am. J. Prev. Med. S157, S157 (2008). 699 See supra Part X. 700 Sabine A. Maguire et al., Retinal Haemorrhages and Related Findings in Abusive and Non-Abusive Head Trauma: A Systematic Review, 27 Eye 28 (2013). Id. at 28-30. Id. at 29. Id. Id. at 29-30. Id. at 31. Id. Id. Sabine A. Maguire et al., Which Clinical Features Distinguish Inflicted from Non-inflicted Brain Injury. A Systematic Review, 94 Arch. Dis. Child 860, 860 (2009). 709 J. Barth et al., Psychosocial Interventions for Smoking Cessation in Patients with Coronary Heart Disease, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews 2008, Issue 1. Art. No.: CD006886. 710 Id. 711 Id. 712 See id. 713 See Elstein & Schwartz, supra note 665, at 731-32. 714 The standard for achieving diagnostic sufficiency is undefined. Whether it is a preponderance standard, clear and convincing standard, or beyond a reasonable doubt standard has never been carefully explored or clearly enunciated, in the medical or legal literature. In most circumstances, given clinical exigency and the primacy of treating the patient, the standard most likely approximates a preponderance standard. But this is a topic for further discussion at a different time. What is clear is that Findley et al., and others, have confused it for the standard for legal sufficiency for conviction--beyond a reasonable doubt. See Findley et al., supra note 3, at 215. Id. at 292. Id. Id. at 216, 266, 292, 300. Id. at 301. Id. at 236-37. Id. at 307. Id. at 301. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 76 A DAUBERT ANALYSIS OF ABUSIVE HEAD..., 13 Hous. J. Health L.... 723 Id. 724 Id. at 305. 725 Id. at 309-12. 726 While Findley et al. also recommend “research” as a path forward (see Findley et al., supra note 3, at 307-08), we agree with some of their delineated research objectives, but disagree with others (such as the establishment of a national registry of AHT/SBS cases). See National Research Council Report, supra note 544. Email communications on file with Dr. Narang. See Hymel et al., supra note 146. See Narang, supra note 10, at 594. See Findley et al., supra note 3, at 309. See Austin v. Am. Ass'n of Neurological Surgeons, 253 F.3d 967, 972-73 (7th Cir. 2001). See Melendez-Diaz v. Mass., 557 U.S. 305, 305-06 (2009). See Joelle Moreno, C.S.I. BULLS#!T: The National Academy of Sciences, Melendez-Diaz v. Massachusetts, and Future Challenges to Forensic Science and Forensic Experts, 2 Utah L. Rev. 327, 330 (2010). 735 See Hand, supra note 516, at 56 (calling for “a board of experts or a single expert, not called by either side,” to “advise the jury of the general propositions applicable to the case”). 736 See Findley et al., supra note 3, at 306. 737 See id. at 213. 13 HOUJHLP 203 End of Document © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. © 2015 Thomson Reuters. No claim to original U.S. Government Works. 77